HawaiiCT 2024Last heat: Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024
Keanu
Asing
This rating is mostly the starting prior, not this surfer. He has 2 rated heats, below the 16-heat threshold at which a surfer's own record outweighs the prior — 91% of the figure below is still the prior every surfer starts at. 35 of the 73 rated surfers are in the same position, which is why the leaderboard filters them out by default rather than ranking them.
- Trim
- −0.32per heat, ± 1.51 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 2below 16
- Prior weight
- 0.91291% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 21 event
- Heats won
- 0of 2
- Mean heat total
- 7.42over 2
- Best heat
- 9.60Hurley Pro Sunset Beach
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best −1.87 at 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Elimination Round heat 2; worst −5.49 at 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Opening Round heat 4. Axis to ±6, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 2 of this surfer's 2 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
2 heats across 1 event
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 3rd | 5.23 | 2.63 + 2.60 | −5.49exp 10.72 | −0.2480.955 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 2 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 3rd | 9.60 | 6.00 + 3.60 | −1.87exp 11.47 | −0.3210.912 | 6-8' · Cross | Eliminated |
How this is computed
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 2 of these 2 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-8' | 2 | 7.42 | 9.60 | −3.68 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cross | 2 | 7.42 | 9.60 | −3.68 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 2 of his 2 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 2 of 2. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.