Men's Championship Tour · 2024 and 2025
Two surfers, side by side.
Pick two surfers. Every figure shows how many heats it rests on, heat wins are split by how many surfers were in the heat, and scores are measured against Datum, the typical score for that round, because scores rise as an event goes on. The page opens on the two surfers who met most often in these seasons.
SeasonShowing 2024 and 2025
Coverage
What each record is built on
Read this first. A surfer with fewer heats in the data has a noisier record, and a surfer who missed a season is only being compared on the other one.
| Measure | Jake Marshall | Connor O'Leary |
|---|---|---|
| Heats surfed | 58 | 60 |
| Events | 20 | 20 |
| Seasons in the data | 2024, 2025 | 2024, 2025 |
| Latest TrimBoth seasons, whatever the season filter says. ± is the 95% range | −0.10 ± 0.87 | 0.16 ± 0.87 |
| Last heat | Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 | Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 |
Performance
Heat results and scoring
| Measure | Jake Marshall | Connor O'Leary |
|---|---|---|
| Won, 3-surfer heatsMostly the Opening Round. Winning one of three is harder than one of two | 9 of 22 (41%) | 7 of 22 (32%) |
| Won, 2-surfer heatsMostly the Round of 32 onwards, plus the WSL Finals | 17 of 36 (47%) | 19 of 38 (50%) |
| Average heat totalOut of 20. Flatters surfers who reach late rounds, where scores run higher | 11.55 (58 heats) | 11.10 (59 heats) |
| Average vs DatumPoints per heat above or below the typical score for that round. A round-adjusted score comparison, not a full adjustment for conditions or opponents | −0.02 (58 heats) | −0.53 (59 heats) |
| Best heat total | 18.33 | 16.37 |
The gap in average vs Datum (0.52) is smaller than the noise in these heat counts (0.99), so these two can't be told apart on it.
Head-to-head
Met 8 times: Marshall ahead 2, O'Leary ahead 6
- Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Round of 16, heat 2 · 2 surfersMarshall 6.43 (2nd) · O'Leary 7.93 (1st)
- MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2024 · Opening Round, heat 1 · 3 surfersMarshall 9.76 (3rd) · O'Leary 9.93 (2nd)
- SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Elimination Round, heat 5 · 2 surfersMarshall 13.57 (1st) · O'Leary 13.50 (2nd)
- VIVO Rio Pro 2024 · Elimination Round, heat 5 · 2 surfersMarshall 9.23 (2nd) · O'Leary 11.83 (1st)
- Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Opening Round, heat 9 · 3 surfersMarshall 6.80 (2nd) · O'Leary 7.10 (1st)
- Surf Abu Dhabi Pro 2025 · Qualifying Round, heat 1 · 3 surfersMarshall 9.83 (2nd) · O'Leary 10.87 (1st)
- MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025 · Opening Round, heat 9 · 3 surfersMarshall 7.63 (3rd) · O'Leary 7.87 (2nd)
- VIVO Rio Pro 2025 · Elimination Round, heat 8 · 2 surfersMarshall 9.94 (1st) · O'Leary 9.60 (2nd)
Venues
Average vs Datum by venue
| Measure | Jake Marshall | Connor O'Leary |
|---|---|---|
| Itaúna | −1.06 (6 heats) | −1.97 (6 heats) |
| Supertubos | −1.58 (7 heats) | −0.88 (4 heats) |
| Punta Roca | +0.54 (4 heats) | +0.67 (6 heats) |
| Main Break | +1.28 (5 heats) | +0.76 (5 heats) |
| Teahupo'o | −1.15 (6 heats) | +0.37 (4 heats) |
| Pipeline | +0.49 (5 heats) | −2.90 (3 heats) |
| Sunset Beach | +0.09 (3 heats) | −2.57 (3 heats) |
| Burleigh | +1.85 (3 heats) | −0.12 (3 heats) |
How this is computed
Computed over venues where both surfers have at least 3 heats. The venue is where each heat was actually surfed, which can differ from the event's named venue. 88 of 801 heats have no recorded venue and are left out here.
Events
Event finishes
| Measure | Jake Marshall | Connor O'Leary |
|---|---|---|
| Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 | 9th | 3rd |
| Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024 | 9th | 9th |
| MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2024 | 5th | 17th |
| Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2024 | 5th | 17th |
| Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 | 9th | 17th |
| SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 | 9th | 17th |
| Surf City El Salvador Pro 2024 | 9th | 9th |
| VIVO Rio Pro 2024 | 17th | 5th |
| Corona Fiji Pro 2024 | 9th | 9th |
| Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 | 5th | 17th |
| Surf Abu Dhabi Pro 2025 | 17th | 9th |
| MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025 | 17th | 17th |
| Surf City El Salvador Pro 2025 | 17th | 9th |
| Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025 | 5th | 9th |
| Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 2025 | 9th | 17th |
| Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 | 9th | 5th |
| Lexus Trestles Pro 2025 | 9th | 5th |
| VIVO Rio Pro 2025 | 5th | 17th |
| Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025 | 9th | 1st |
| Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 | 9th | 17th |
How this is computed
Computed over regular-season events as WSL published them. Finishes are bands, so 5th is shared by four surfers and 9th by eight. The WSL Finals publishes no event finish; its heats are counted above. A dash means the surfer was not in that event.
How this is computed
Computed over 1,854 heat entries from 22 events, including the WSL Finals, and 700 regular-season event results. Wins use the published heat placing. Datum residuals exist for heats with a published heat total; the few without one are counted as heats but not scored.