ANALYTICS

AustraliaCT 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025

Mikey
McDonagh

This rating is mostly the starting prior, not this surfer. He has 4 rated heats, below the 16-heat threshold at which a surfer's own record outweighs the prior — 83% of the figure below is still the prior every surfer starts at. 35 of the 73 rated surfers are in the same position, which is why the leaderboard filters them out by default rather than ranking them.

Trim
−0.38per heat, ± 1.42 (95%)
Rated heats
4below 16
Prior weight
0.83183% of the rating
Heats surfed
41 event
Heats won
1of 4
Mean heat total
9.39over 4
Best heat
12.77Western Australia Margaret River Pro

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2025

first 4 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 0−0.38heat 1heat 4Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 11.47 against an expected 10.72 (+0.75) Trim 0.000 → 0.034 · prior weight 0.955 3rd in the heatHeat 2 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 10.90 against an expected 11.47 (−0.57) Trim 0.034 → 0.007 · prior weight 0.912 2nd in the heatHeat 3 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 1 Scored 12.77 against an expected 11.74 (+1.03) Trim 0.007 → 0.053 · prior weight 0.871 1st in the heatHeat 4 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 1 Scored 2.43 against an expected 12.04 (−9.61) Trim 0.053 → −0.384 · prior weight 0.831 2nd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +1.03 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 1; worst −9.61 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 1. Axis to ±10, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 4 of this surfer's 4 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

4 heats across 1 event

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Main Break3rd11.475.97 + 5.50+0.75exp 10.720.0340.9554-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 3
22025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Main Break2nd10.905.57 + 5.33−0.57exp 11.470.0070.9128-10' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 1
32025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 1 · Main Break1st12.776.60 + 6.17+1.03exp 11.740.0530.8718-10' · Offshore—
42025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · The Box2nd2.431.50 + 0.93−9.61exp 12.04−0.3840.8314-6' · Offshore—
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 4 of these 4 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
4-6'26.9511.47−4.43
8-10'211.8412.77+0.23

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Offshore49.3912.77−2.10

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 4 of his 4 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 4 of 4. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.