BrazilCT 2025Last heat: Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025
Alejo
Muniz
- Trim
- −0.75per heat, ± 0.96 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 26at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.30130% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 2610 events
- Heats won
- 7of 26
- Mean heat total
- 10.26over 26
- Best heat
- 14.37Lexus Trestles Pro
The swell · MunizCT 2025 · 26 rated heats
Scroll to ride 26 heats
The swell · four moments from 26 rated heats
- Heat 3 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 32The deepest trough.5.50 against an expected 11.74: a gap of −6.24, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 7 · Surf City El Salvador Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe low tide.8.94 against an expected 10.72 (Punta Roca, 4-6', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.866.
- Heat 22 · Lexus Trestles Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundThe highest crest.14.37 (Lower Trestles, 4-6', light) against an expected 11.47. A gap of +2.90.
- Heat 26 · Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.9.20 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at −0.748.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +2.90 at 2025 Lexus Trestles Pro · Elimination Round heat 5; worst −6.24 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 12. Axis to ±7, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 26 of this surfer's 26 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
26 heats across 10 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Pipeline | 3rd | 6.27 | 3.27 + 3.00 | −4.45exp 10.72 | −0.2010.955 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 2 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Pipeline | 1st | 7.83 | 4.83 + 3.00 | −3.64exp 11.47 | −0.3560.912 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 3 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Pipeline | 2nd | 5.50 | 4.00 + 1.50 | −6.24exp 11.74 | −0.6220.871 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 9 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 3rd | 9.94 | — | −1.23exp 11.17 | −0.6500.831 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 5 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 10 · Supertubos | 2nd | 7.87 | 4.37 + 3.50 | −2.85exp 10.72 | −0.7490.794 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 6 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 7 · Supertubos | 2nd | 9.37 | 4.70 + 4.67 | −2.37exp 11.74 | −0.8230.758 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 7 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 8.94 | 4.67 + 4.27 | −1.78exp 10.72 | −0.8660.724 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 8 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.47 | 6.70 + 4.77 | +0.00exp 11.47 | −0.8270.691 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 9 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Punta Roca | 1st | 10.93 | 5.50 + 5.43 | −0.81exp 11.74 | −0.8260.660 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 10 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 14.33 | 7.33 + 7.00 | +2.29exp 12.04 | −0.6850.630 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 11 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 9 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 9.43 | 5.33 + 4.10 | −1.29exp 10.72 | −0.7130.602 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 12 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 4 | 1st | 11.63 | 5.83 + 5.80 | +0.16exp 11.47 | −0.6730.574 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 13 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 13 | 2nd | 11.73 | 5.90 + 5.83 | −0.01exp 11.74 | −0.6440.548 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 14 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Burleigh | 1st | 11.87 | 6.57 + 5.30 | +1.15exp 10.72 | −0.5630.524 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 15 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Burleigh | 1st | 13.47 | 7.17 + 6.30 | +1.73exp 11.74 | −0.4590.500 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 16 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Burleigh | 1st | 12.17 | 6.60 + 5.57 | +0.13exp 12.04 | −0.4330.477 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 17 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Burleigh | 1st | 13.43 | 8.00 + 5.43 | +0.38exp 13.05 | −0.3960.456 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 18 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Burleigh | 2nd | 14.07 | 8.00 + 6.07 | +0.32exp 13.75 | −0.3640.435 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 19 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Main Break | 3rd | 11.44 | 5.77 + 5.67 | +0.72exp 10.72 | −0.3150.416 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 20 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Main Break | 3rd | 8.37 | 4.37 + 4.00 | −3.10exp 11.47 | −0.4400.397 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 21 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Lower Trestles | 3rd | 9.63 | 5.33 + 4.30 | −1.09exp 10.72 | −0.4700.379 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 22 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 14.37 | 7.70 + 6.67 | +2.90exp 11.47 | −0.3180.362 | 4-6' · Light | Eliminated |
| 23 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 3rd | 4.97 | 4.10 + 0.87 | −5.75exp 10.72 | −0.5630.345 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 24 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Itaúna | 2nd | 9.67 | 7.00 + 2.67 | −1.80exp 11.47 | −0.6190.330 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 25 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 2 · Supertubes | 2nd | 8.83 | 4.73 + 4.10 | −1.89exp 10.72 | −0.6760.315 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 26 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 5 · Supertubes | 2nd | 9.20 | 5.33 + 3.87 | −2.27exp 11.47 | −0.7480.301 | 4-6' · Onshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 24 of these 26 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 5 | 11.56 | 14.07 | −0.44 |
| 4-6' | 15 | 10.45 | 14.37 | −0.82 |
| 6-8' | 4 | 8.48 | 14.33 | −3.01 |
| 8-10' | 1 | 8.37 | 8.37 | −3.10 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 9 | 8.39 | 11.73 | −2.84 |
| Offshore | 6 | 10.75 | 14.33 | −0.44 |
| Light | 5 | 12.61 | 14.37 | +0.81 |
| Onshore | 4 | 9.91 | 11.63 | −1.44 |
| Cross | 1 | 14.07 | 14.07 | +0.32 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 25 of his 26 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 25 of 26. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.