ANALYTICS

BrazilCT 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025

Edgard
Groggia

Trim
−0.97per heat, ± 1.08 (95%)
Rated heats
16at or above 16
Prior weight
0.47748% of the rating
Heats surfed
167 events
Heats won
0of 16
Mean heat total
9.16over 16
Best heat
12.96Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro

The swell · four moments from 16 rated heats

  1. Heat 3 · Surf Abu Dhabi Pro 2025 · Qualifying RoundThe deepest trough.4.96 against an expected 11.17: a gap of −6.21, his largest miss in these seasons.
  2. Heat 9 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025 · Opening RoundThe low tide.8.87 against an expected 10.72 (Bells Beach, 4-6', onshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.993.
  3. Heat 12 · Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundThe highest crest.12.96 (Burleigh, 1-4', calm) against an expected 11.47. A gap of +1.49.
  4. Heat 16 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Round of 32Where it ends.8.53 against 11.74, leaving his Trim at −0.971.

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 0−0.97heat 1heat 16Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 1 Scored 8.73 against an expected 10.72 (−1.99) Trim 0.000 → −0.090 · prior weight 0.955 2nd in the heatHeat 2 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 1 Scored 5.93 against an expected 11.74 (−5.81) Trim −0.090 → −0.348 · prior weight 0.912 2nd in the heatHeat 3 — 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Qualifying Round heat 1 Scored 4.96 against an expected 11.17 (−6.21) Trim −0.348 → −0.613 · prior weight 0.871 3rd in the heatHeat 4 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 1 Scored 6.47 against an expected 10.72 (−4.25) Trim −0.613 → −0.778 · prior weight 0.831 3rd in the heatHeat 5 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 11.27 against an expected 11.47 (−0.20) Trim −0.778 → −0.751 · prior weight 0.794 2nd in the heatHeat 6 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 32 heat 16 Scored 7.04 against an expected 11.74 (−4.70) Trim −0.751 → −0.930 · prior weight 0.758 2nd in the heatHeat 7 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 2 Scored 8.90 against an expected 10.72 (−1.82) Trim −0.930 → −0.970 · prior weight 0.724 3rd in the heatHeat 8 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 10.90 against an expected 11.47 (−0.57) Trim −0.970 → −0.952 · prior weight 0.691 3rd in the heatHeat 9 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 8.87 against an expected 10.72 (−1.85) Trim −0.952 → −0.993 · prior weight 0.660 3rd in the heatHeat 10 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 10.50 against an expected 11.47 (−0.97) Trim −0.993 → −0.992 · prior weight 0.630 3rd in the heatHeat 11 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 10.30 against an expected 10.72 (−0.42) Trim −0.992 → −0.966 · prior weight 0.602 3rd in the heatHeat 12 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 12.96 against an expected 11.47 (+1.49) Trim −0.966 → −0.855 · prior weight 0.574 2nd in the heatHeat 13 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Round of 32 heat 1 Scored 11.94 against an expected 11.74 (+0.20) Trim −0.855 → −0.808 · prior weight 0.548 2nd in the heatHeat 14 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 9.80 against an expected 10.72 (−0.92) Trim −0.808 → −0.813 · prior weight 0.524 3rd in the heatHeat 15 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Elimination Round heat 4 Scored 9.50 against an expected 11.47 (−1.97) Trim −0.813 → −0.865 · prior weight 0.500 2nd in the heatHeat 16 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 13 Scored 8.53 against an expected 11.74 (−3.21) Trim −0.865 → −0.971 · prior weight 0.477 2nd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +1.49 at 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Elimination Round heat 3; worst −6.21 at 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Qualifying Round heat 1. Axis to ±7, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 16 of this surfer's 16 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

16 heats across 7 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Pipeline2nd8.735.00 + 3.73−1.99exp 10.72−0.0900.9556-8' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 1
22025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 1 · Pipeline2nd5.934.00 + 1.93−5.81exp 11.74−0.3480.9126-8' · Calm—
32025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 1 · Surf Abu Dhabi3rd4.96—−6.21exp 11.17−0.6130.871not publishedAdv to NS
42025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 1 · Supertubos3rd6.473.67 + 2.80−4.25exp 10.72−0.7780.8314-6' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 3
52025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 3 · Supertubos2nd11.275.77 + 5.50−0.20exp 11.47−0.7510.7941-4' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 16
62025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 16 · Supertubos2nd7.043.67 + 3.37−4.70exp 11.74−0.9300.7584-6' · Onshore—
72025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca3rd8.905.33 + 3.57−1.82exp 10.72−0.9700.7244-6' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 1
82025 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Punta Roca3rd10.905.50 + 5.40−0.57exp 11.47−0.9520.6914-6' · CalmEliminated
92025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach3rd8.874.60 + 4.27−1.85exp 10.72−0.9930.6604-6' · OnshoreAdv to ER - HT 1
102025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach3rd10.505.57 + 4.93−0.97exp 11.47−0.9920.6304-6' · OnshoreEliminated
112025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Burleigh3rd10.305.30 + 5.00−0.42exp 10.72−0.9660.6021-4' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 3
122025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Burleigh2nd12.966.83 + 6.13+1.49exp 11.47−0.8550.5741-4' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 1
132025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 1 · Burleigh2nd11.946.17 + 5.77+0.20exp 11.74−0.8080.5481-4' · Light—
142025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Main Break3rd9.805.17 + 4.63−0.92exp 10.72−0.8130.5244-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 4
152025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Main Break2nd9.506.17 + 3.33−1.97exp 11.47−0.8650.5008-10' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 13
162025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Main Break2nd8.534.60 + 3.93−3.21exp 11.74−0.9710.4778-10' · Offshore—
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 16 of these 16 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'411.6212.96+0.27
4-6'78.9310.90−2.16
6-8'27.338.73−3.90
8-10'29.029.50−2.59

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Calm68.9812.96−2.16
Offshore49.5310.30−1.63
Onshore49.4211.27−1.93
Light111.9411.94+0.20

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 15 of his 16 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 15 of 16. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.