ANALYTICS

PortugalCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025

Frederico
Morais

This rating is mostly the starting prior, not this surfer. He has 15 rated heats, below the 16-heat threshold at which a surfer's own record outweighs the prior — 50% of the figure below is still the prior every surfer starts at. 35 of the 73 rated surfers are in the same position, which is why the leaderboard filters them out by default rather than ranking them.

Trim
−0.29per heat, ± 1.10 (95%)
Rated heats
15below 16
Prior weight
0.50050% of the rating
Heats surfed
156 events
Heats won
4of 15
Mean heat total
10.53over 15
Best heat
15.37Western Australia Margaret River Pro

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 02025−0.29heat 1heat 15Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 8 Scored 4.57 against an expected 10.72 (−6.15) Trim 0.000 → −0.278 · prior weight 0.955 2nd in the heatHeat 2 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 7 Scored 7.00 against an expected 11.74 (−4.74) Trim −0.278 → −0.479 · prior weight 0.912 2nd in the heatHeat 3 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Opening Round heat 7 Scored 7.84 against an expected 10.72 (−2.88) Trim −0.479 → −0.588 · prior weight 0.871 3rd in the heatHeat 4 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 9.33 against an expected 11.47 (−2.14) Trim −0.588 → −0.658 · prior weight 0.831 2nd in the heatHeat 5 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Round of 32 heat 13 Scored 13.83 against an expected 11.74 (+2.09) Trim −0.658 → −0.534 · prior weight 0.794 1st in the heatHeat 6 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Round of 16 heat 7 Scored 12.07 against an expected 12.04 (+0.03) Trim −0.534 → −0.509 · prior weight 0.758 2nd in the heatHeat 7 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 12 Scored 13.10 against an expected 10.72 (+2.38) Trim −0.509 → −0.378 · prior weight 0.724 1st in the heatHeat 8 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 32 heat 8 Scored 13.00 against an expected 11.74 (+1.26) Trim −0.378 → −0.304 · prior weight 0.691 2nd in the heatHeat 9 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 12 Scored 9.33 against an expected 10.72 (−1.39) Trim −0.304 → −0.354 · prior weight 0.660 3rd in the heatHeat 10 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 11.50 against an expected 11.47 (+0.03) Trim −0.354 → −0.336 · prior weight 0.630 1st in the heatHeat 11 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 12 Scored 11.17 against an expected 11.74 (−0.57) Trim −0.336 → −0.347 · prior weight 0.602 2nd in the heatHeat 12 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 9 Scored 15.37 against an expected 10.72 (+4.65) Trim −0.347 → −0.121 · prior weight 0.574 1st in the heatHeat 13 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 11 Scored 12.83 against an expected 11.74 (+1.09) Trim −0.121 → −0.067 · prior weight 0.548 2nd in the heatHeat 14 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 8.94 against an expected 10.72 (−1.78) Trim −0.067 → −0.144 · prior weight 0.524 3rd in the heatHeat 15 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 8.07 against an expected 11.47 (−3.40) Trim −0.144 → −0.291 · prior weight 0.500 3rd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +4.65 at 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 9; worst −6.15 at 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 8. Axis to ±7, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 15 of this surfer's 15 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

15 heats across 6 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Pipeline2nd4.574.17 + 0.40−6.15exp 10.72−0.2780.9558-10' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 7
22024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 72nd7.006.67 + 0.33−4.74exp 11.74−0.4790.9128-10' · Calm—
32024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 7 · Sunset Beach3rd7.844.17 + 3.67−2.88exp 10.72−0.5880.8716-8' · CrossAdv to ER - HT 1
42024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 1 · Sunset Beach2nd9.335.00 + 4.33−2.14exp 11.47−0.6580.8316-8' · CrossAdv to R/32 - HT 13
52024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 13 · Sunset Beach1st13.838.00 + 5.83+2.09exp 11.74−0.5340.79410-14' · Cross—
62024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 7 · Sunset Beach2nd12.076.40 + 5.67+0.03exp 12.04−0.5090.75810-14' · Cross—
72024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 12 · Supertubos1st13.107.17 + 5.93+2.38exp 10.72−0.3780.7244-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 8
82024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 8 · Supertubos2nd13.006.83 + 6.17+1.26exp 11.74−0.3040.6914-6' · Cross—
92024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 12 · Bells Beach3rd9.335.33 + 4.00−1.39exp 10.72−0.3540.6604-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 3
102024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach1st11.506.50 + 5.00+0.03exp 11.47−0.3360.6304-6' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 12
112024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 12 · Winki Pop2nd11.176.67 + 4.50−0.57exp 11.74−0.3470.6021-4' · Onshore—
122024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Main Break1st15.378.07 + 7.30+4.65exp 10.72−0.1210.5741-4' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 11
132024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 11 · Main Break2nd12.837.10 + 5.73+1.09exp 11.74−0.0670.5481-4' · Onshore—
142025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 6 · Supertubos3rd8.945.17 + 3.77−1.78exp 10.72−0.1440.5244-6' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 1
152025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 1 · Supertubos3rd8.074.57 + 3.50−3.40exp 11.47−0.2910.5001-4' · OnshoreEliminated
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 14 of these 15 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'411.8615.37+0.44
4-6'511.1713.10+0.10
6-8'28.599.33−2.51
8-10'25.797.00−5.45
10-14'212.9513.83+1.06

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Cross511.2113.83−0.33
Onshore410.8912.83−0.71
Calm36.848.94−4.23
Offshore312.6015.37+1.88

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 15 of his 15 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 15 of 15. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.