ANALYTICS

BrazilCT 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025

Ian
Gouveia

Trim
−0.08per heat, ± 1.08 (95%)
Rated heats
16at or above 16
Prior weight
0.47748% of the rating
Heats surfed
167 events
Heats won
5of 16
Mean heat total
11.37over 16
Best heat
16.50Lexus Pipe Pro

The swell · four moments from 16 rated heats

  1. Heat 3 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.16.50 (Pipeline, 6-8', calm) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +4.46.
  2. Heat 8 · MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025 · Elimination RoundThe deepest trough.6.80 against an expected 11.47: a gap of −4.67, his largest miss in these seasons.
  3. Heat 13 · Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe low tide.10.30 against an expected 10.72 (Burleigh, 1-4', offshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.326.
  4. Heat 16 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Round of 32Where it ends.13.06 against 11.74, leaving his Trim at −0.078.

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 0−0.08heat 1heat 16Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 11.84 against an expected 10.72 (+1.12) Trim 0.000 → 0.050 · prior weight 0.955 1st in the heatHeat 2 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 10 Scored 14.66 against an expected 11.74 (+2.92) Trim 0.050 → 0.180 · prior weight 0.912 1st in the heatHeat 3 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 5 Scored 16.50 against an expected 12.04 (+4.46) Trim 0.180 → 0.373 · prior weight 0.871 1st in the heatHeat 4 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Quarterfinals heat 3 Scored 15.17 against an expected 13.05 (+2.12) Trim 0.373 → 0.452 · prior weight 0.831 1st in the heatHeat 5 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Semifinals heat 2 Scored 9.34 against an expected 13.75 (−4.41) Trim 0.452 → 0.233 · prior weight 0.794 2nd in the heatHeat 6 — 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Qualifying Round heat 10 Scored 10.03 against an expected 11.17 (−1.14) Trim 0.233 → 0.170 · prior weight 0.758 2nd in the heatHeat 7 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 10 Scored 6.44 against an expected 10.72 (−4.28) Trim 0.170 → −0.031 · prior weight 0.724 3rd in the heatHeat 8 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 6.80 against an expected 11.47 (−4.67) Trim −0.031 → −0.240 · prior weight 0.691 3rd in the heatHeat 9 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 7 Scored 10.90 against an expected 10.72 (+0.18) Trim −0.240 → −0.221 · prior weight 0.660 2nd in the heatHeat 10 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 32 heat 15 Scored 11.70 against an expected 11.74 (−0.04) Trim −0.221 → −0.213 · prior weight 0.630 2nd in the heatHeat 11 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 9.90 against an expected 10.72 (−0.82) Trim −0.213 → −0.241 · prior weight 0.602 3rd in the heatHeat 12 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Elimination Round heat 4 Scored 9.44 against an expected 11.47 (−2.03) Trim −0.241 → −0.321 · prior weight 0.574 3rd in the heatHeat 13 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Opening Round heat 11 Scored 10.30 against an expected 10.72 (−0.42) Trim −0.321 → −0.326 · prior weight 0.548 2nd in the heatHeat 14 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Round of 32 heat 16 Scored 12.67 against an expected 11.74 (+0.93) Trim −0.326 → −0.269 · prior weight 0.524 2nd in the heatHeat 15 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 9 Scored 13.23 against an expected 10.72 (+2.51) Trim −0.269 → −0.144 · prior weight 0.500 1st in the heatHeat 16 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 8 Scored 13.06 against an expected 11.74 (+1.32) Trim −0.144 → −0.078 · prior weight 0.477 2nd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +4.46 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 5; worst −4.67 at 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Elimination Round heat 3. Axis to ±5, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 16 of this surfer's 16 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

16 heats across 7 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Pipeline1st11.847.67 + 4.17+1.12exp 10.720.0500.9556-8' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 10
22025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Pipeline1st14.667.33 + 7.33+2.92exp 11.740.1800.9126-8' · Calm—
32025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Pipeline1st16.509.00 + 7.50+4.46exp 12.040.3730.8716-8' · Calm—
42025 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Pipeline1st15.178.00 + 7.17+2.12exp 13.050.4520.8314-6' · Calm—
52025 Lexus Pipe ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Pipeline2nd9.346.67 + 2.67−4.41exp 13.750.2330.7944-6' · Calm—
62025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 10 · Surf Abu Dhabi2nd10.03—−1.14exp 11.170.1700.758not publishedAdv to NS
72025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 10 · Supertubos3rd6.443.77 + 2.67−4.28exp 10.72−0.0310.7244-6' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 3
82025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 3 · Supertubos3rd6.803.67 + 3.13−4.67exp 11.47−0.2400.6911-4' · OnshoreEliminated
92025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Punta Roca2nd10.905.57 + 5.33+0.18exp 10.72−0.2210.6604-6' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 15
102025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 15 · Punta Roca2nd11.706.33 + 5.37−0.04exp 11.74−0.2130.6304-6' · Calm—
112025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 4 · Bells Beach3rd9.905.10 + 4.80−0.82exp 10.72−0.2410.6024-6' · OnshoreAdv to ER - HT 4
122025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 43rd9.444.77 + 4.67−2.03exp 11.47−0.3210.5744-6' · OnshoreEliminated
132025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Burleigh2nd10.305.47 + 4.83−0.42exp 10.72−0.3260.5481-4' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 16
142025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 16 · Burleigh2nd12.676.67 + 6.00+0.93exp 11.74−0.2690.5244-6' · Light—
152025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Main Break1st13.237.00 + 6.23+2.51exp 10.72−0.1440.5004-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 8
162025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Main Break2nd13.066.73 + 6.33+1.32exp 11.74−0.0780.4778-10' · Offshore—
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 15 of these 16 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'28.5510.30−2.55
4-6'910.9815.17−0.65
6-8'314.3316.50+2.83
8-10'113.0613.06+1.32

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Calm812.0716.50+0.26
Offshore312.2013.23+1.13
Onshore38.719.90−2.51
Light112.6712.67+0.93

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 15 of his 16 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 15 of 16. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.