ANALYTICS

AustraliaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025

Jacob
Willcox

Trim
0.07per heat, ± 1.06 (95%)
Rated heats
17at or above 16
Prior weight
0.45646% of the rating
Heats surfed
176 events
Heats won
7of 17
Mean heat total
11.56over 17
Best heat
16.17Western Australia Margaret River Pro

The swell · four moments from 17 rated heats

  1. Heat 9 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2024 · Opening RoundThe low tide.10.40 against an expected 10.72 (Bells Beach, 4-6', offshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.155.
  2. Heat 11 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.16.17 (Main Break, 1-4', onshore) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +5.45.
  3. Heat 13 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe deepest trough.5.00 against an expected 10.72: a gap of −5.72, his largest miss in these seasons.
  4. Heat 17 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · QuarterfinalsWhere it ends.11.10 against 13.05, leaving his Trim at 0.071.

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 020250.07heat 1heat 17Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 12 Scored 10.50 against an expected 10.72 (−0.22) Trim 0.000 → −0.010 · prior weight 0.955 3rd in the heatHeat 2 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 10.16 against an expected 11.47 (−1.31) Trim −0.010 → −0.069 · prior weight 0.912 1st in the heatHeat 3 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 8 Scored 12.20 against an expected 11.74 (+0.46) Trim −0.069 → −0.045 · prior weight 0.871 2nd in the heatHeat 4 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Opening Round heat 10 Scored 10.17 against an expected 10.72 (−0.55) Trim −0.045 → −0.068 · prior weight 0.831 2nd in the heatHeat 5 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Round of 32 heat 3 Scored 13.40 against an expected 11.74 (+1.66) Trim −0.068 → 0.010 · prior weight 0.794 1st in the heatHeat 6 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Round of 16 heat 2 Scored 9.26 against an expected 12.04 (−2.78) Trim 0.010 → −0.116 · prior weight 0.758 2nd in the heatHeat 7 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 11.24 against an expected 10.72 (+0.52) Trim −0.116 → −0.087 · prior weight 0.724 1st in the heatHeat 8 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 32 heat 14 Scored 10.33 against an expected 11.74 (−1.41) Trim −0.087 → −0.147 · prior weight 0.691 2nd in the heatHeat 9 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 10.40 against an expected 10.72 (−0.32) Trim −0.147 → −0.155 · prior weight 0.660 2nd in the heatHeat 10 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 8 Scored 13.90 against an expected 11.74 (+2.16) Trim −0.155 → −0.051 · prior weight 0.630 2nd in the heatHeat 11 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 10 Scored 16.17 against an expected 10.72 (+5.45) Trim −0.051 → 0.198 · prior weight 0.602 1st in the heatHeat 12 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 8 Scored 14.17 against an expected 11.74 (+2.43) Trim 0.198 → 0.298 · prior weight 0.574 2nd in the heatHeat 13 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 5.00 against an expected 10.72 (−5.72) Trim 0.298 → 0.026 · prior weight 0.548 3rd in the heatHeat 14 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 11.03 against an expected 11.47 (−0.44) Trim 0.026 → 0.005 · prior weight 0.524 1st in the heatHeat 15 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 9 Scored 15.00 against an expected 11.74 (+3.26) Trim 0.005 → 0.152 · prior weight 0.500 1st in the heatHeat 16 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 5 Scored 12.50 against an expected 12.04 (+0.46) Trim 0.152 → 0.166 · prior weight 0.477 1st in the heatHeat 17 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Quarterfinals heat 3 Scored 11.10 against an expected 13.05 (−1.95) Trim 0.166 → 0.071 · prior weight 0.456 2nd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +5.45 at 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 10; worst −5.72 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 6. Axis to ±6, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 17 of this surfer's 17 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

17 heats across 6 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Pipeline3rd10.505.50 + 5.00−0.22exp 10.72−0.0100.9558-10' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 3
22024 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 31st10.165.33 + 4.83−1.31exp 11.47−0.0690.9128-10' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 8
32024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 82nd12.206.33 + 5.87+0.46exp 11.74−0.0450.8718-10' · Calm—
42024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 10 · Sunset Beach2nd10.176.67 + 3.50−0.55exp 10.72−0.0680.8316-8' · CrossAdv to R/32 - HT 3
52024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 3 · Sunset Beach1st13.408.40 + 5.00+1.66exp 11.740.0100.79410-14' · Cross—
62024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 2 · Sunset Beach2nd9.265.33 + 3.93−2.78exp 12.04−0.1160.75810-14' · Cross—
72024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 4 · Supertubos1st11.246.67 + 4.57+0.52exp 10.72−0.0870.7244-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 14
82024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 14 · Supertubos2nd10.335.50 + 4.83−1.41exp 11.74−0.1470.6914-6' · Cross—
92024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 6 · Bells Beach2nd10.405.73 + 4.67−0.32exp 10.72−0.1550.6604-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 8
102024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 8 · Winki Pop2nd13.907.33 + 6.57+2.16exp 11.74−0.0510.6301-4' · Light—
112024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Main Break1st16.178.57 + 7.60+5.45exp 10.720.1980.6021-4' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 8
122024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Main Break2nd14.178.50 + 5.67+2.43exp 11.740.2980.5744-6' · Offshore—
132025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Main Break3rd5.002.50 + 2.50−5.72exp 10.720.0260.5484-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 1
142025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Main Break1st11.035.70 + 5.33−0.44exp 11.470.0050.5248-10' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 9
152025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 9 · Main Break1st15.008.33 + 6.67+3.26exp 11.740.1520.5008-10' · Offshore—
162025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · The Box1st12.508.17 + 4.33+0.46exp 12.040.1660.4774-6' · Offshore—
172025 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Main Break2nd11.106.10 + 5.00−1.95exp 13.050.0710.4566-8' · Offshore—
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 15 of these 17 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'215.0416.17+3.80
4-6'610.6114.17−0.68
6-8'210.6411.10−1.25
8-10'511.7815.00+0.35
10-14'211.3313.40−0.56

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Offshore811.3115.00−0.22
Cross410.7913.40−0.77
Calm310.9512.20−0.36
Light113.9013.90+2.16
Onshore116.1716.17+5.45

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 17 of his 17 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 17 of 17. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.