ANALYTICS

AustraliaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025

George
Pittar

Trim
0.29per heat, ± 0.98 (95%)
Rated heats
24at or above 16
Prior weight
0.33033% of the rating
Heats surfed
249 events
Heats won
8of 24
Mean heat total
12.06over 24
Best heat
16.83Western Australia Margaret River Pro

The swell · four moments from 24 rated heats

  1. Heat 1 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2024 · Opening RoundThe low tide.8.10 against an expected 10.72 (Bells Beach, 4-6', offshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.118.
  2. Heat 6 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 · Round of 16The highest crest.15.90 (Main Break, 1-4', offshore) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +3.86.
  3. Heat 12 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · QuarterfinalsThe deepest trough.8.00 against an expected 13.05: a gap of −5.05, his largest miss in these seasons.
  4. Heat 24 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Round of 32Where it ends.11.83 against 11.74, leaving his Trim at 0.288.

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 020250.29heat 1heat 24Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 5 Scored 8.10 against an expected 10.72 (−2.62) Trim 0.000 → −0.118 · prior weight 0.955 3rd in the heatHeat 2 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Elimination Round heat 2 Scored 14.07 against an expected 11.47 (+2.60) Trim −0.118 → 0.004 · prior weight 0.912 1st in the heatHeat 3 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 5 Scored 12.73 against an expected 11.74 (+0.99) Trim 0.004 → 0.049 · prior weight 0.871 2nd in the heatHeat 4 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 11.57 against an expected 10.72 (+0.85) Trim 0.049 → 0.085 · prior weight 0.831 1st in the heatHeat 5 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 7 Scored 13.26 against an expected 11.74 (+1.52) Trim 0.085 → 0.150 · prior weight 0.794 1st in the heatHeat 6 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 4 Scored 15.90 against an expected 12.04 (+3.86) Trim 0.150 → 0.317 · prior weight 0.758 1st in the heatHeat 7 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Quarterfinals heat 2 Scored 16.83 against an expected 13.05 (+3.78) Trim 0.317 → 0.474 · prior weight 0.724 1st in the heatHeat 8 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Semifinals heat 1 Scored 14.87 against an expected 13.75 (+1.12) Trim 0.474 → 0.503 · prior weight 0.691 2nd in the heatHeat 9 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 7 Scored 7.17 against an expected 10.72 (−3.55) Trim 0.503 → 0.320 · prior weight 0.660 2nd in the heatHeat 10 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 13 Scored 12.50 against an expected 11.74 (+0.76) Trim 0.320 → 0.339 · prior weight 0.630 1st in the heatHeat 11 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 7 Scored 14.10 against an expected 12.04 (+2.06) Trim 0.339 → 0.417 · prior weight 0.602 1st in the heatHeat 12 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Quarterfinals heat 4 Scored 8.00 against an expected 13.05 (−5.05) Trim 0.417 → 0.170 · prior weight 0.574 2nd in the heatHeat 13 — 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Qualifying Round heat 3 Scored 10.73 against an expected 11.17 (−0.44) Trim 0.170 → 0.143 · prior weight 0.548 2nd in the heatHeat 14 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 9.27 against an expected 10.72 (−1.45) Trim 0.143 → 0.071 · prior weight 0.524 3rd in the heatHeat 15 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Elimination Round heat 4 Scored 11.06 against an expected 11.47 (−0.41) Trim 0.071 → 0.049 · prior weight 0.500 3rd in the heatHeat 16 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 14.17 against an expected 10.72 (+3.45) Trim 0.049 → 0.202 · prior weight 0.477 2nd in the heatHeat 17 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 32 heat 8 Scored 13.50 against an expected 11.74 (+1.76) Trim 0.202 → 0.273 · prior weight 0.456 1st in the heatHeat 18 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 16 heat 4 Scored 11.50 against an expected 12.04 (−0.54) Trim 0.273 → 0.236 · prior weight 0.435 2nd in the heatHeat 19 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 10.77 against an expected 10.72 (+0.05) Trim 0.236 → 0.227 · prior weight 0.416 2nd in the heatHeat 20 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 15 Scored 11.90 against an expected 11.74 (+0.16) Trim 0.227 → 0.224 · prior weight 0.397 2nd in the heatHeat 21 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Opening Round heat 2 Scored 11.03 against an expected 10.72 (+0.31) Trim 0.224 → 0.228 · prior weight 0.379 2nd in the heatHeat 22 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Round of 32 heat 10 Scored 14.23 against an expected 11.74 (+2.49) Trim 0.228 → 0.330 · prior weight 0.362 2nd in the heatHeat 23 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 10.33 against an expected 10.72 (−0.39) Trim 0.330 → 0.297 · prior weight 0.345 2nd in the heatHeat 24 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 4 Scored 11.83 against an expected 11.74 (+0.09) Trim 0.297 → 0.288 · prior weight 0.330 2nd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +3.86 at 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 4; worst −5.05 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Quarterfinals heat 4. Axis to ±6, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 24 of this surfer's 24 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

24 heats across 9 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 5 · Bells Beach3rd8.104.53 + 3.57−2.62exp 10.72−0.1180.9554-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 2
22024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 2 · Bells Beach1st14.078.67 + 5.40+2.60exp 11.470.0040.9124-6' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 5
32024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 5 · Winki Pop2nd12.736.90 + 5.83+0.99exp 11.740.0490.8711-4' · Onshore—
42024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Main Break1st11.576.00 + 5.57+0.85exp 10.720.0850.8311-4' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 7
52024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 7 · Main Break1st13.268.33 + 4.93+1.52exp 11.740.1500.7941-4' · Onshore—
62024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Main Break1st15.909.00 + 6.90+3.86exp 12.040.3170.7581-4' · Offshore—
72024 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Main Break1st16.839.50 + 7.33+3.78exp 13.050.4740.7246-8' · Offshore—
82024 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Main Break2nd14.877.70 + 7.17+1.12exp 13.750.5030.6916-8' · Calm—
92025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Pipeline2nd7.174.50 + 2.67−3.55exp 10.720.3200.6606-8' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 13
102025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Pipeline1st12.507.00 + 5.50+0.76exp 11.740.3390.6306-8' · Calm—
112025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Pipeline1st14.107.30 + 6.80+2.06exp 12.040.4170.6026-8' · Calm—
122025 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Pipeline2nd8.006.50 + 1.50−5.05exp 13.050.1700.5744-6' · Calm—
132025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 3 · Surf Abu Dhabi2nd10.73—−0.44exp 11.170.1430.548not publishedAdv to NS
142025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 3 · Supertubos3rd9.274.70 + 4.57−1.45exp 10.720.0710.5244-6' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 4
152025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 4 · Supertubos3rd11.065.73 + 5.33−0.41exp 11.470.0490.5001-4' · OnshoreEliminated
162025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Punta Roca2nd14.177.17 + 7.00+3.45exp 10.720.2020.4774-6' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 8
172025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Punta Roca1st13.508.17 + 5.33+1.76exp 11.740.2730.4564-6' · Calm—
182025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Punta Roca2nd11.506.10 + 5.40−0.54exp 12.040.2360.4356-8' · Offshore—
192025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach2nd10.776.67 + 4.10+0.05exp 10.720.2270.4164-6' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 15
202025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 152nd11.906.07 + 5.83+0.16exp 11.740.2240.3976-8' · Calm—
212025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Burleigh2nd11.036.13 + 4.90+0.31exp 10.720.2280.3791-4' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 10
222025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Burleigh2nd14.237.43 + 6.80+2.49exp 11.740.3300.3624-6' · Light—
232025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Main Break2nd10.336.00 + 4.33−0.39exp 10.720.2970.3454-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 4
242025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 4 · Main Break2nd11.837.00 + 4.83+0.09exp 11.740.2880.3308-10' · Offshore—
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 23 of these 24 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'612.5915.90+1.18
4-6'911.3814.23+0.09
6-8'712.7016.83+0.54
8-10'111.8311.83+0.09

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Calm911.7214.87−0.08
Offshore812.1416.83+0.67
Onshore512.3814.07+0.95
Light114.2314.23+2.49

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 23 of his 24 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 23 of 24. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.