HawaiiCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025
Jackson
Bunch
- Trim
- −0.80per heat, ± 1.02 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 20at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.39740% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 208 events
- Heats won
- 5of 20
- Mean heat total
- 10.09over 20
- Best heat
- 15.73Surf Abu Dhabi Pro
The swell · BunchCT 2024 and 2025 · 20 rated heats
Scroll to ride 20 heats
The swell · four moments from 20 rated heats
- Heat 5 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 32The low tide.6.50 against an expected 11.74 (Pipeline, 6-8', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.851.
- Heat 7 · Surf Abu Dhabi Pro 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.15.73 (conditions not published) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +3.69.
- Heat 20 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Round of 16The deepest trough.3.34 against an expected 12.04: a gap of −8.70, his largest miss in these seasons.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +3.69 at 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Round of 16 heat 3; worst −8.70 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 6. Axis to ±9, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 20 of this surfer's 20 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
20 heats across 8 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Pipeline | 1st | 10.17 | 8.77 + 1.40 | −0.55exp 10.72 | −0.0250.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 4 | 2nd | 6.84 | 4.17 + 2.67 | −4.90exp 11.74 | −0.2450.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Pipeline | 3rd | 7.34 | 5.17 + 2.17 | −3.38exp 10.72 | −0.3870.871 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 4 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Pipeline | 2nd | 5.40 | 4.00 + 1.40 | −6.07exp 11.47 | −0.6430.831 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 5 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 5 · Pipeline | 2nd | 6.50 | 4.83 + 1.67 | −5.24exp 11.74 | −0.8510.794 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 6 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 2 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 13.10 | — | +1.93exp 11.17 | −0.7260.758 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 3 |
| 7 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 3 | 1st | 15.73 | — | +3.69exp 12.04 | −0.5260.724 | not published | Adv to QF - HT 2 |
| 8 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 | 2nd | 11.67 | — | −1.38exp 13.05 | −0.5650.691 | not published | Eliminated |
| 9 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 6 · Supertubos | 2nd | 11.30 | 7.00 + 4.30 | +0.58exp 10.72 | −0.5130.660 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 10 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 15 · Supertubos | 2nd | 10.90 | 5.67 + 5.23 | −0.84exp 11.74 | −0.5280.630 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 11 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 1st | 12.16 | 6.33 + 5.83 | +1.44exp 10.72 | −0.4390.602 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 12 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.67 | 5.07 + 4.60 | −2.07exp 11.74 | −0.5130.574 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 13 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 11 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 8.67 | 5.17 + 3.50 | −2.05exp 10.72 | −0.5830.548 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 14 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 12.97 | 6.50 + 6.47 | +1.50exp 11.47 | −0.4880.524 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 15 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 16 | 2nd | 14.77 | 8.60 + 6.17 | +3.03exp 11.74 | −0.3300.500 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 16 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Burleigh | 2nd | 10.44 | 5.27 + 5.17 | −0.28exp 10.72 | −0.3280.477 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 17 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Burleigh | 2nd | 8.26 | 5.43 + 2.83 | −3.48exp 11.74 | −0.4700.456 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 18 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Main Break | 2nd | 13.53 | 7.10 + 6.43 | +2.81exp 10.72 | −0.3220.435 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 19 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 11 · Main Break | 1st | 9.13 | 4.63 + 4.50 | −2.61exp 11.74 | −0.4250.416 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 20 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · The Box | 2nd | 3.34 | 2.17 + 1.17 | −8.70exp 12.04 | −0.7990.397 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
How this is computed
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 16 of these 20 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 2 | 9.35 | 10.44 | −1.88 |
| 4-6' | 8 | 10.32 | 13.53 | −0.92 |
| 6-8' | 4 | 8.50 | 14.77 | −2.92 |
| 8-10' | 3 | 8.71 | 10.17 | −2.69 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 9 | 9.35 | 14.77 | −1.91 |
| Offshore | 4 | 9.11 | 13.53 | −2.20 |
| Onshore | 3 | 10.85 | 12.97 | −0.46 |
| Light | 1 | 8.26 | 8.26 | −3.48 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 17 of his 20 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 17 of 20. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.