ANALYTICS

United StatesCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Trestles Pro 2025

Kelly
Slater

Trim
−0.22per heat, ± 1.02 (95%)
Rated heats
20at or above 16
Prior weight
0.39740% of the rating
Heats surfed
208 events
Heats won
6of 20
Mean heat total
11.01over 20
Best heat
17.16Lexus Pipe Pro

The swell · four moments from 20 rated heats

  1. Heat 2 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Round of 32The deepest trough.4.27 against an expected 11.74: a gap of −7.47, his largest miss in these seasons.
  2. Heat 9 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 · Round of 32The low tide.6.17 against an expected 11.74 (Main Break, 4-6', offshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.533.
  3. Heat 17 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.17.16 (Pipeline, 6-8', calm) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +5.12.
  4. Heat 20 · Lexus Trestles Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.10.40 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at −0.221.

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 02025−0.22heat 1heat 20Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 11.67 against an expected 10.72 (+0.95) Trim 0.000 → 0.043 · prior weight 0.955 2nd in the heatHeat 2 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 1 Scored 4.27 against an expected 11.74 (−7.47) Trim 0.043 → −0.297 · prior weight 0.912 2nd in the heatHeat 3 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 12.40 against an expected 10.72 (+1.68) Trim −0.297 → −0.207 · prior weight 0.871 2nd in the heatHeat 4 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Round of 32 heat 9 Scored 8.93 against an expected 11.74 (−2.81) Trim −0.207 → −0.325 · prior weight 0.831 2nd in the heatHeat 5 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 11.67 against an expected 10.72 (+0.95) Trim −0.325 → −0.268 · prior weight 0.794 1st in the heatHeat 6 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 11 Scored 10.10 against an expected 11.74 (−1.64) Trim −0.268 → −0.330 · prior weight 0.758 2nd in the heatHeat 7 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 9.77 against an expected 10.72 (−0.95) Trim −0.330 → −0.358 · prior weight 0.724 3rd in the heatHeat 8 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 12.50 against an expected 11.47 (+1.03) Trim −0.358 → −0.295 · prior weight 0.691 2nd in the heatHeat 9 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 5 Scored 6.17 against an expected 11.74 (−5.57) Trim −0.295 → −0.533 · prior weight 0.660 2nd in the heatHeat 10 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 14.50 against an expected 10.72 (+3.78) Trim −0.533 → −0.339 · prior weight 0.630 1st in the heatHeat 11 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Round of 16 heat 1 Scored 14.46 against an expected 12.04 (+2.42) Trim −0.339 → −0.214 · prior weight 0.602 1st in the heatHeat 12 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Quarterfinals heat 1 Scored 16.66 against an expected 13.05 (+3.61) Trim −0.214 → −0.041 · prior weight 0.574 2nd in the heatHeat 13 — 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 7.07 against an expected 10.72 (−3.65) Trim −0.041 → −0.204 · prior weight 0.548 3rd in the heatHeat 14 — 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 10.93 against an expected 11.47 (−0.54) Trim −0.204 → −0.220 · prior weight 0.524 2nd in the heatHeat 15 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 5 Scored 9.90 against an expected 10.72 (−0.82) Trim −0.220 → −0.247 · prior weight 0.500 1st in the heatHeat 16 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 11 Scored 14.83 against an expected 11.74 (+3.09) Trim −0.247 → −0.096 · prior weight 0.477 1st in the heatHeat 17 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 6 Scored 17.16 against an expected 12.04 (+5.12) Trim −0.096 → 0.139 · prior weight 0.456 1st in the heatHeat 18 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Quarterfinals heat 3 Scored 9.26 against an expected 13.05 (−3.79) Trim 0.139 → −0.038 · prior weight 0.435 2nd in the heatHeat 19 — 2025 Lexus Trestles Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 7.53 against an expected 10.72 (−3.19) Trim −0.038 → −0.180 · prior weight 0.416 3rd in the heatHeat 20 — 2025 Lexus Trestles Pro · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 10.40 against an expected 11.47 (−1.07) Trim −0.180 → −0.221 · prior weight 0.397 2nd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +5.12 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 6; worst −7.47 at 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 1. Axis to ±8, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 20 of this surfer's 20 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

20 heats across 8 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Pipeline2nd11.677.17 + 4.50+0.95exp 10.720.0430.9558-10' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 1
22024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 12nd4.273.00 + 1.27−7.47exp 11.74−0.2970.9128-10' · Calm—
32024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Sunset Beach2nd12.406.23 + 6.17+1.68exp 10.72−0.2070.8716-8' · CrossAdv to R/32 - HT 9
42024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 9 · Sunset Beach2nd8.934.93 + 4.00−2.81exp 11.74−0.3250.83110-14' · Cross—
52024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach1st11.676.10 + 5.57+0.95exp 10.72−0.2680.7944-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 11
62024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 11 · Winki Pop2nd10.105.20 + 4.90−1.64exp 11.74−0.3300.7581-4' · Onshore—
72024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Main Break3rd9.775.07 + 4.70−0.95exp 10.72−0.3580.7241-4' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 3
82024 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Main Break2nd12.507.17 + 5.33+1.03exp 11.47−0.2950.6914-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 5
92024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 5 · Main Break2nd6.173.67 + 2.50−5.57exp 11.74−0.5330.6604-6' · Offshore—
102024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Teahupo'o1st14.507.67 + 6.83+3.78exp 10.72−0.3390.6306-8' · OffshoreAdv to R/16 - HT 1
112024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Teahupo'o1st14.469.73 + 4.73+2.42exp 12.04−0.2140.6028-10' · Offshore—
122024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Teahupo'o2nd16.668.83 + 7.83+3.61exp 13.05−0.0410.5748-10' · Offshore—
132024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Cloudbreak3rd7.074.07 + 3.00−3.65exp 10.72−0.2040.5484-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 3
142024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Cloudbreak2nd10.935.50 + 5.43−0.54exp 11.47−0.2200.5244-6' · OffshoreEliminated
152025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Pipeline1st9.905.57 + 4.33−0.82exp 10.72−0.2470.5006-8' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 11
162025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 11 · Pipeline1st14.838.00 + 6.83+3.09exp 11.74−0.0960.4776-8' · Calm—
172025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Pipeline1st17.169.33 + 7.83+5.12exp 12.040.1390.4566-8' · Calm—
182025 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Pipeline2nd9.267.33 + 1.93−3.79exp 13.05−0.0380.4354-6' · Calm—
192025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Lower Trestles3rd7.534.03 + 3.50−3.19exp 10.72−0.1800.4164-6' · LightAdv to ER - HT 3
202025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Lower Trestles2nd10.405.50 + 4.90−1.07exp 11.47−0.2210.3974-6' · LightEliminated
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 19 of these 20 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'29.9410.10−1.30
4-6'89.4412.50−1.98
6-8'513.7617.16+2.57
8-10'411.7716.66−0.12
10-14'18.938.93−2.81

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Offshore911.5316.66+0.12
Calm611.1817.16−0.49
Cross210.6712.40−0.57
Light28.9710.40−2.13
Onshore110.1010.10−1.64

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 20 of his 20 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 20 of 20. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.