BrazilCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025
Deivid
Silva
- Trim
- −1.77per heat, ± 0.93 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 30at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.25025% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 3112 events
- Heats won
- 3of 31
- Mean heat total
- 8.93over 30
- Best heat
- 16.70Western Australia Margaret River Pro
The swell · SilvaCT 2024 and 2025 · 30 rated heats
Scroll to ride 30 heats
The swell · four moments from 30 rated heats
- Heat 13 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 · Round of 32The highest crest.16.70 (Main Break, 4-6', offshore) against an expected 11.74. A gap of +4.96.
- Heat 16 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 32The deepest trough.1.43 against an expected 11.74: a gap of −10.31, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 24 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025 · Opening RoundThe low tide.8.70 against an expected 10.72 (Bells Beach, 4-6', onshore). His Trim bottoms out at −1.843.
- Heat 30 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.8.93 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at −1.770.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +4.96 at 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 1; worst −10.31 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 7. Axis to ±11, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 30 of this surfer's 31 heats; the other 1 carry no published heat total, so they are absent from the line rather than plotted as zero. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
31 heats across 12 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Pipeline | 3rd | 4.64 | 2.87 + 1.77 | −6.08exp 10.72 | −0.2750.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| — | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 1 | 2nd | — | — | — | — | not published | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 13 | 2nd | 8.84 | 5.17 + 3.67 | −2.90exp 11.74 | −0.3930.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 3rd | 8.47 | 5.67 + 2.80 | −2.25exp 10.72 | −0.4770.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 3 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 8.24 | 4.67 + 3.57 | −3.23exp 11.47 | −0.6020.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 5 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 8.06 | 4.73 + 3.33 | −3.68exp 11.74 | −0.7410.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 2 · Supertubos | 3rd | 9.84 | 5.17 + 4.67 | −0.88exp 10.72 | −0.7470.758 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 3 · Molhe Leste | 2nd | 12.44 | 6.77 + 5.67 | +0.97exp 11.47 | −0.6700.724 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 5 · Supertubos | 2nd | 11.97 | 6.67 + 5.30 | +0.23exp 11.74 | −0.6290.691 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 7.03 | 3.63 + 3.40 | −3.69exp 10.72 | −0.7670.660 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 10 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 8.37 | 5.70 + 2.67 | −3.10exp 11.47 | −0.8730.630 | 4-6' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 11 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 3rd | 12.83 | 7.50 + 5.33 | +2.11exp 10.72 | −0.7380.602 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 12 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Main Break | 2nd | 12.54 | 6.37 + 6.17 | +1.07exp 11.47 | −0.6560.574 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 13 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 16.70 | 8.53 + 8.17 | +4.96exp 11.74 | −0.4030.548 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 14 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Pipeline | 3rd | 5.90 | 4.07 + 1.83 | −4.82exp 10.72 | −0.6020.524 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 15 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Pipeline | 2nd | 8.00 | 5.00 + 3.00 | −3.47exp 11.47 | −0.7320.500 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 16 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 7 · Pipeline | 2nd | 1.43 | 1.00 + 0.43 | −10.31exp 11.74 | −1.1650.477 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 17 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 8 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 3rd | 8.57 | — | −2.60exp 11.17 | −1.2300.456 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 18 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 1 | 2nd | 8.80 | — | −3.24exp 12.04 | −1.3200.435 | not published | Eliminated |
| 19 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 12 · Supertubos | 3rd | 1.17 | 0.67 + 0.50 | −9.55exp 10.72 | −1.6920.416 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 20 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.43 | 6.93 + 5.50 | +0.96exp 11.47 | −1.5720.397 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 21 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 11 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.83 | 4.50 + 4.33 | −2.91exp 11.74 | −1.6330.379 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 22 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.56 | 5.93 + 3.63 | −1.16exp 10.72 | −1.6120.362 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 23 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 11 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 5.20 | 2.87 + 2.33 | −6.54exp 11.74 | −1.8340.345 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 24 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 8 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 8.70 | 5.70 + 3.00 | −2.02exp 10.72 | −1.8430.330 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 25 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 3 | 3rd | 10.53 | 5.90 + 4.63 | −0.94exp 11.47 | −1.8020.315 | 4-6' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 26 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Burleigh | 1st | 10.00 | 5.70 + 4.30 | −0.72exp 10.72 | −1.7530.301 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 27 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Burleigh | 1st | 11.60 | 5.93 + 5.67 | −0.14exp 11.74 | −1.6810.287 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 28 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Burleigh | 2nd | 10.93 | 6.00 + 4.93 | −1.11exp 12.04 | −1.6550.274 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 29 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Main Break | 3rd | 7.33 | 4.13 + 3.20 | −3.39exp 10.72 | −1.7330.262 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 30 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Main Break | 3rd | 8.93 | 4.93 + 4.00 | −2.54exp 11.47 | −1.7700.250 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero (1 here). The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 27 of these 31 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 3 | 11.75 | 12.83 | +0.78 |
| 4-6' | 16 | 9.55 | 16.70 | −1.76 |
| 6-8' | 5 | 6.41 | 8.47 | −4.82 |
| 8-10' | 3 | 7.47 | 8.93 | −3.84 |
| 10-14' | 1 | 8.06 | 8.06 | −3.68 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 8 | 5.59 | 9.56 | −5.61 |
| Offshore | 8 | 10.65 | 16.70 | −0.39 |
| Cross | 5 | 9.84 | 12.44 | −1.59 |
| Onshore | 5 | 9.77 | 12.43 | −1.60 |
| Light | 2 | 11.27 | 11.60 | −0.63 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 28 of his 31 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 28 of 31. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.