BrazilCT 2024Last heat: Corona Fiji Pro 2024
Gabriel
Medina
- Trim
- 1.48per heat, ± 0.93 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 30at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.25025% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 309 events
- Heats won
- 18of 30
- Mean heat total
- 13.75over 30
- Best heat
- 19.83SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro
The swell · MedinaCT 2024 · 30 rated heats
Scroll to ride 30 heats
The swell · four moments from 30 rated heats
- Heat 2 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Round of 32The deepest trough.2.73 against an expected 11.74: a gap of −9.01, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 6 · MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2024 · Opening RoundThe low tide.8.16 against an expected 10.72 (Supertubos, 4-6', offshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.451.
- Heat 18 · SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Round of 16The highest crest.19.83 (Teahupo'o, 8-10', offshore) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +7.79.
- Heat 30 · Corona Fiji Pro 2024 · QuarterfinalsWhere it ends.10.16 against 13.05, leaving his Trim at 1.475.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +7.79 at 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Round of 16 heat 7; worst −9.01 at 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 11. Axis to ±10, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 30 of this surfer's 30 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
30 heats across 9 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Pipeline | 2nd | 12.33 | 8.33 + 4.00 | +1.61exp 10.72 | 0.0730.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 11 | 2nd | 2.73 | 1.50 + 1.23 | −9.01exp 11.74 | −0.3380.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 9 · Sunset Beach | 3rd | 10.60 | 5.60 + 5.00 | −0.12exp 10.72 | −0.3280.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 13.83 | 7.33 + 6.50 | +2.36exp 11.47 | −0.2070.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 8.33 | 5.00 + 3.33 | −3.41exp 11.74 | −0.3510.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 10 · Supertubos | 3rd | 8.16 | 5.13 + 3.03 | −2.56exp 10.72 | −0.4510.758 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 3 · Molhe Leste | 1st | 13.00 | 7.83 + 5.17 | +1.53exp 11.47 | −0.3620.724 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 10 · Supertubos | 1st | 16.60 | 8.33 + 8.27 | +4.86exp 11.74 | −0.1260.691 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 5 · Supertubos | 1st | 17.16 | 9.33 + 7.83 | +5.12exp 12.04 | 0.1110.660 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Supertubos | 1st | 18.00 | 9.00 + 9.00 | +4.95exp 13.05 | 0.3300.630 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalSemifinals · heat 2 · Supertubos | 2nd | 14.94 | 7.77 + 7.17 | +1.19exp 13.75 | 0.3680.602 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 10 · Bells Beach | 1st | 17.33 | 9.33 + 8.00 | +6.61exp 10.72 | 0.6500.574 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 7 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 13.77 | 7.10 + 6.67 | +2.03exp 11.74 | 0.7120.548 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 1st | 15.00 | 8.50 + 6.50 | +4.28exp 10.72 | 0.8730.524 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 2 · Main Break | 1st | 14.66 | 8.73 + 5.93 | +2.92exp 11.74 | 0.9660.500 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 13.66 | 7.83 + 5.83 | +1.62exp 12.04 | 0.9950.477 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 17 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 11.90 | 6.33 + 5.57 | +1.18exp 10.72 | 1.0030.456 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 19.83 | 10.00 + 9.83 | +7.79exp 12.04 | 1.3100.435 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 19 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 18.96 | 9.73 + 9.23 | +5.91exp 13.05 | 1.5180.416 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 20 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 14.00 | 8.33 + 5.67 | +0.25exp 13.75 | 1.4600.397 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 21 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Punta Roca | 1st | 15.40 | 7.90 + 7.50 | +4.68exp 10.72 | 1.6060.379 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 22 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 1st | 16.17 | 8.50 + 7.67 | +4.13exp 12.04 | 1.7200.362 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 23 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 1st | 15.27 | 7.77 + 7.50 | +2.22exp 13.05 | 1.7420.345 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 24 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 14.23 | 7.50 + 6.73 | +0.48exp 13.75 | 1.6850.330 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 25 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Itaúna | 1st | 14.93 | 8.00 + 6.93 | +4.21exp 10.72 | 1.7990.315 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 26 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Itaúna | 1st | 9.60 | 5.20 + 4.40 | −2.44exp 12.04 | 1.6080.301 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 27 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Itaúna | 2nd | 9.44 | 4.77 + 4.67 | −3.61exp 13.05 | 1.3720.287 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 28 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 17.67 | 9.17 + 8.50 | +6.95exp 10.72 | 1.6240.274 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 29 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 14.94 | 9.87 + 5.07 | +2.90exp 12.04 | 1.6820.262 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 30 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 10.16 | 6.83 + 3.33 | −2.89exp 13.05 | 1.4750.250 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 29 of these 30 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 6 | 14.26 | 18.00 | +1.86 |
| 4-6' | 14 | 14.82 | 17.67 | +3.23 |
| 6-8' | 4 | 10.87 | 13.83 | −0.95 |
| 8-10' | 5 | 13.57 | 19.83 | +1.31 |
| 10-14' | 1 | 8.33 | 8.33 | −3.41 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 12 | 14.63 | 19.83 | +2.85 |
| Cross | 9 | 13.62 | 18.00 | +1.51 |
| Light | 5 | 14.97 | 16.17 | +2.71 |
| Calm | 3 | 10.00 | 14.93 | −1.07 |
| Onshore | 1 | 9.60 | 9.60 | −2.44 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 30 of his 30 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 30 of 30. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.