United StatesCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Crosby
Colapinto
- Trim
- −0.05per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 56at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0758% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 5618 events
- Heats won
- 25of 56
- Mean heat total
- 11.61over 56
- Best heat
- 17.43SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro
The swell · ColapintoCT 2024 and 2025 · 56 rated heats
Scroll to ride 56 heats
The swell · four moments from 56 rated heats
- Heat 13 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2024 · Round of 16The low tide.4.67 against an expected 12.04 (Winki Pop, 1-4', onshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.476.
- Heat 17 · SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Elimination RoundThe highest crest.17.43 (Teahupo'o, 8-10', offshore) against an expected 11.47. A gap of +5.96.
- Heat 56 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · SemifinalsWhere it ends.11.66 against 13.75, leaving his Trim at −0.054.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.96 at 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Elimination Round heat 8; worst −7.37 at 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 16 heat 5. Axis to ±8, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 56 of this surfer's 56 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
56 heats across 18 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Pipeline | 2nd | 11.83 | 7.33 + 4.50 | +1.11exp 10.72 | 0.0500.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 11 | 1st | 8.86 | 8.33 + 0.53 | −2.88exp 11.74 | −0.0820.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 6 | 2nd | 8.83 | 4.50 + 4.33 | −3.21exp 12.04 | −0.2240.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 10.03 | 5.30 + 4.73 | −0.69exp 10.72 | −0.2450.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 14 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 14 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 9.03 | 5.83 + 3.20 | −2.71exp 11.74 | −0.3560.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 6 · Supertubos | 2nd | 11.20 | 6.03 + 5.17 | +0.48exp 10.72 | −0.3190.758 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 4 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.17 | 7.00 + 6.17 | +1.43exp 11.74 | −0.2400.724 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.00 | 6.60 + 6.40 | +0.96exp 12.04 | −0.1860.691 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.27 | 6.17 + 6.10 | −0.78exp 13.05 | −0.2120.660 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalSemifinals · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 10.97 | 5.50 + 5.47 | −2.78exp 13.75 | −0.3280.630 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 11 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 11 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 11.33 | 6.00 + 5.33 | +0.61exp 10.72 | −0.2860.602 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 10 · Winki Pop | 1st | 14.47 | 7.50 + 6.97 | +2.73exp 11.74 | −0.1500.574 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 5 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 4.67 | 2.67 + 2.00 | −7.37exp 12.04 | −0.4760.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Main Break | 2nd | 14.50 | 7.83 + 6.67 | +3.78exp 10.72 | −0.2840.524 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Main Break | 2nd | 10.97 | 5.97 + 5.00 | −0.77exp 11.74 | −0.3060.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 10.56 | 5.93 + 4.63 | −0.16exp 10.72 | −0.3000.477 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 17 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 17.43 | 9.43 + 8.00 | +5.96exp 11.47 | −0.0170.456 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 9.00 | 5.00 + 4.00 | −3.04exp 12.04 | −0.1530.435 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 19 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 9.66 | 6.33 + 3.33 | −1.06exp 10.72 | −0.1950.416 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 6 |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 6 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.00 | 7.17 + 6.83 | +2.53exp 11.47 | −0.0710.397 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 21 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Punta Roca | 1st | 16.67 | 8.50 + 8.17 | +4.63exp 12.04 | 0.1410.379 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 22 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.67 | 5.67 + 4.00 | −3.38exp 13.05 | −0.0180.362 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 23 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 2nd | 13.94 | 8.17 + 5.77 | +3.22exp 10.72 | 0.1280.345 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 24 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 1st | 11.33 | 7.33 + 4.00 | −0.14exp 11.47 | 0.1160.330 | 6-8' · Onshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 25 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Itaúna | 2nd | 10.83 | 5.83 + 5.00 | −1.21exp 12.04 | 0.0560.315 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 26 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 9.96 | 5.63 + 4.33 | −0.76exp 10.72 | 0.0190.301 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 27 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 14.10 | 7.27 + 6.83 | +2.63exp 11.47 | 0.1370.287 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 28 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 11.40 | 6.17 + 5.23 | −0.64exp 12.04 | 0.1020.274 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 29 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 10.53 | 5.43 + 5.10 | −0.19exp 10.72 | 0.0890.262 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 30 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 2 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.40 | 4.40 + 4.00 | −3.34exp 11.74 | −0.0660.250 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 31 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.04 | 7.17 + 1.87 | −1.68exp 10.72 | −0.1390.239 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 32 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 1st | 11.60 | 7.60 + 4.00 | −0.14exp 11.74 | −0.1390.228 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 33 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.00 | 6.83 + 6.17 | +0.96exp 12.04 | −0.0900.218 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 34 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.43 | 7.60 + 6.83 | +1.38exp 13.05 | −0.0230.208 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 35 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.50 | 7.67 + 1.83 | −4.25exp 13.75 | −0.2140.198 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 36 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.84 | 6.67 + 6.17 | +2.12exp 10.72 | −0.1090.189 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 37 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 6 | 2nd | 11.50 | 6.00 + 5.50 | −0.24exp 11.74 | −0.1150.181 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 38 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Burleigh | 2nd | 11.30 | 6.40 + 4.90 | +0.58exp 10.72 | −0.0840.173 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 39 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 3 · Burleigh | 2nd | 15.33 | 7.90 + 7.43 | +3.59exp 11.74 | 0.0820.165 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 40 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Main Break | 3rd | 9.63 | 5.10 + 4.53 | −1.09exp 10.72 | 0.0290.157 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 41 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Main Break | 1st | 10.00 | 5.50 + 4.50 | −1.47exp 11.47 | −0.0390.150 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 42 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Main Break | 1st | 16.00 | 8.83 + 7.17 | +4.26exp 11.74 | 0.1550.144 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 43 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · The Box | 1st | 6.53 | 4.50 + 2.03 | −5.51exp 12.04 | −0.1010.137 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 44 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Main Break | 1st | 15.66 | 8.83 + 6.83 | +2.61exp 13.05 | 0.0220.131 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 45 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Main Break | 2nd | 6.67 | 6.67 (1 of 2) | −7.08exp 13.75 | −0.2990.125 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 46 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 11.84 | 6.67 + 5.17 | +1.12exp 10.72 | −0.2350.119 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 47 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 12.90 | 7.67 + 5.23 | +1.43exp 11.47 | −0.1600.114 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 48 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 15.00 | 9.33 + 5.67 | +2.96exp 12.04 | −0.0190.109 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 49 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.50 | 6.83 + 5.67 | +1.78exp 10.72 | 0.0620.104 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 50 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Itaúna | 2nd | 13.30 | 7.83 + 5.47 | +1.26exp 12.04 | 0.1160.099 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 51 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 4 · Supertubes | 1st | 13.36 | 7.03 + 6.33 | +2.64exp 10.72 | 0.2300.095 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 52 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 3 · Supertubes | 2nd | 9.33 | 5.50 + 3.83 | −2.71exp 12.04 | 0.0970.090 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 53 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 8.60 | 5.67 + 2.93 | −2.12exp 10.72 | −0.0030.086 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 54 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 9.34 | 6.17 + 3.17 | −2.70exp 12.04 | −0.1250.082 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 55 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 16.63 | 8.33 + 8.30 | +3.58exp 13.05 | 0.0430.079 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 56 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 11.66 | 5.83 + 5.83 | −2.09exp 13.75 | −0.0540.075 | 6-8' · Light | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 53 of these 56 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 13 | 10.99 | 15.33 | −0.97 |
| 4-6' | 25 | 11.99 | 16.67 | +0.59 |
| 6-8' | 9 | 12.00 | 16.63 | −0.44 |
| 8-10' | 8 | 11.32 | 17.43 | −0.18 |
| 10-14' | 1 | 9.03 | 9.03 | −2.71 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 20 | 11.82 | 17.43 | +0.29 |
| Calm | 15 | 11.50 | 16.63 | −0.05 |
| Light | 11 | 12.27 | 16.67 | +0.29 |
| Cross | 6 | 11.41 | 13.17 | −0.76 |
| Onshore | 4 | 9.45 | 11.33 | −2.37 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 56 of his 56 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 56 of 56. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.