HawaiiCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Pipe Pro 2025
John John
Florence
2024 World Champion- Trim
- 1.79per heat, ± 0.89 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 43at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.13714% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 4311 events
- Heats won
- 28of 43
- Mean heat total
- 14.18over 43
- Best heat
- 18.40Western Australia Margaret River Pro
The swell · FlorenceCT 2024 and 2025 · 43 rated heats
Scroll to ride 43 heats
The swell · four moments from 43 rated heats
- Heat 1 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe low tide.15.20 against an expected 10.72 (Pipeline, 8-10', calm). His Trim bottoms out at 0.202.
- Heat 28 · Surf City El Salvador Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.16.33 (Punta Roca, 4-6', light) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +5.61.
- Heat 38 · Corona Fiji Pro 2024 · Round of 16The deepest trough.7.44 against an expected 12.04: a gap of −4.60, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 43 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 16Where it ends.17.06 against 12.04, leaving his Trim at 1.790.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.61 at 2024 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 4; worst −4.60 at 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Round of 16 heat 5. Axis to ±6, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 43 of this surfer's 43 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
43 heats across 11 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Pipeline | 1st | 15.20 | 8.33 + 6.87 | +4.48exp 10.72 | 0.2020.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 13 | 1st | 17.34 | 9.17 + 8.17 | +5.60exp 11.74 | 0.4460.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 7 | 1st | 11.83 | 6.50 + 5.33 | −0.21exp 12.04 | 0.4160.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 | 1st | 13.67 | 8.00 + 5.67 | +0.62exp 13.05 | 0.4260.831 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 5 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProSemifinals · heat 2 | 1st | 16.10 | 8.27 + 7.83 | +2.35exp 13.75 | 0.5120.794 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 6 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProFinal · heat 1 | 2nd | 15.33 | 8.00 + 7.33 | +0.84exp 14.49 | 0.5270.758 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 14.83 | 7.83 + 7.00 | +4.11exp 10.72 | 0.6890.724 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 8 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 5 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 10.60 | 5.60 + 5.00 | −1.14exp 11.74 | 0.6060.691 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 3 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 16.06 | 8.23 + 7.83 | +4.02exp 12.04 | 0.7600.660 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 14.26 | 7.33 + 6.93 | +1.21exp 13.05 | 0.7810.630 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 4 · Supertubos | 2nd | 7.27 | 3.67 + 3.60 | −3.45exp 10.72 | 0.5900.602 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 12 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 14.84 | 8.67 + 6.17 | +3.10exp 11.74 | 0.7030.574 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 13 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 12.26 | 6.33 + 5.93 | +0.22exp 12.04 | 0.6810.548 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 10.84 | 6.67 + 4.17 | +0.12exp 10.72 | 0.6560.524 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 15 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 13 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 10.10 | 7.67 + 2.43 | −1.64exp 11.74 | 0.5520.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Main Break | 3rd | 6.83 | 5.63 + 1.20 | −3.89exp 10.72 | 0.3510.477 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 17 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 11.37 | 5.70 + 5.67 | −0.10exp 11.47 | 0.3310.456 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 18 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 17.13 | 8.80 + 8.33 | +5.39exp 11.74 | 0.5590.435 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 19 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 13.90 | 7.00 + 6.90 | +1.86exp 12.04 | 0.6180.416 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 20 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 16.26 | 8.23 + 8.03 | +3.21exp 13.05 | 0.7350.397 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 21 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 18.40 | 10.00 + 8.40 | +4.65exp 13.75 | 0.9120.379 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 22 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProFinal · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 16.04 | 8.77 + 7.27 | +1.55exp 14.49 | 0.9410.362 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 23 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 13.77 | 7.67 + 6.10 | +3.05exp 10.72 | 1.0360.345 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 5 |
| 24 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 15.77 | 8.17 + 7.60 | +3.73exp 12.04 | 1.1570.330 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 25 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 18.33 | 9.23 + 9.10 | +5.28exp 13.05 | 1.3440.315 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 26 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 18.00 | 9.77 + 8.23 | +4.25exp 13.75 | 1.4750.301 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 27 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProFinal · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 17.16 | 9.33 + 7.83 | +2.67exp 14.49 | 1.5290.287 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 28 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 1st | 16.33 | 8.50 + 7.83 | +5.61exp 10.72 | 1.7130.274 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 5 |
| 29 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.26 | 8.93 + 4.33 | +1.22exp 12.04 | 1.6910.262 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 30 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 1st | 15.17 | 8.00 + 7.17 | +2.12exp 13.05 | 1.7100.250 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 31 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 1st | 17.50 | 10.00 + 7.50 | +3.75exp 13.75 | 1.8030.239 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 32 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProFinal · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 1st | 16.33 | 8.50 + 7.83 | +1.84exp 14.49 | 1.8040.228 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 33 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Itaúna | 3rd | 8.10 | 4.77 + 3.33 | −2.62exp 10.72 | 1.6040.218 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 34 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.34 | 7.17 + 5.17 | +0.87exp 11.47 | 1.5710.208 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 5 |
| 35 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Itaúna | 1st | 14.44 | 7.67 + 6.77 | +2.40exp 12.04 | 1.6090.198 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 36 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.27 | 6.27 + 5.00 | −1.78exp 13.05 | 1.4560.189 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 37 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 14.57 | 7.40 + 7.17 | +3.85exp 10.72 | 1.5640.181 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 5 |
| 38 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 7.44 | 4.17 + 3.27 | −4.60exp 12.04 | 1.2850.173 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 39 | 2024 Lexus WSL Finals FinalsTitle Match · heat 1 · Lower Trestlesbest of three · won 2–0 | 1st | 15.50 | 8.33 + 7.17 | +2.18exp 13.32 | 1.3260.165 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 40 | 2024 Lexus WSL Finals FinalsTitle Match · heat 2 · Lower Trestlesbest of three · won 2–0 | 1st | 18.13 | 9.70 + 8.43 | +4.81exp 13.32 | 1.4830.157 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 41 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Pipeline | 2nd | 11.50 | 5.83 + 5.67 | +0.78exp 10.72 | 1.4510.150 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 42 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 5 · Pipeline | 1st | 17.30 | 8.73 + 8.57 | +5.56exp 11.74 | 1.6370.144 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 43 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Pipeline | 2nd | 17.06 | 9.63 + 7.43 | +5.02exp 12.04 | 1.7900.137 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 38 of these 43 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 4 | 10.55 | 13.90 | −0.94 |
| 4-6' | 17 | 13.60 | 18.13 | +1.51 |
| 6-8' | 13 | 15.07 | 18.40 | +2.49 |
| 8-10' | 7 | 16.23 | 18.33 | +3.69 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 13.33 | 16.06 | +1.44 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 14 | 13.47 | 18.33 | +1.41 |
| Light | 12 | 15.64 | 18.13 | +2.34 |
| Calm | 9 | 14.34 | 18.40 | +2.68 |
| Cross | 5 | 13.72 | 16.06 | +2.06 |
| Onshore | 3 | 11.97 | 14.44 | +0.22 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 43 of his 43 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 43 of 43. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.