BrazilCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025
Samuel
Pupo
- Trim
- 0.06per heat, ± 0.91 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 34at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.20821% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 3413 events
- Heats won
- 12of 34
- Mean heat total
- 11.36over 34
- Best heat
- 16.23Western Australia Margaret River Pro
The swell · PupoCT 2024 and 2025 · 34 rated heats
Scroll to ride 34 heats
The swell · four moments from 34 rated heats
- Heat 19 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundThe deepest trough.4.10 against an expected 11.47: a gap of −7.37, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 26 · Surf City El Salvador Pro 2025 · Round of 32The low tide.4.43 against an expected 11.74 (Punta Roca, 4-6', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.807.
- Heat 33 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.16.23 (Main Break, 4-6', offshore) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +5.51.
- Heat 34 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Round of 32Where it ends.10.10 against 11.74, leaving his Trim at 0.060.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.51 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 8; worst −7.37 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Elimination Round heat 3. Axis to ±8, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 34 of this surfer's 34 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
34 heats across 13 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Pipeline | 1st | 13.00 | 7.33 + 5.67 | +2.28exp 10.72 | 0.1030.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 2 | 2nd | 11.83 | 6.00 + 5.83 | +0.09exp 11.74 | 0.1020.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 11 · Sunset Beach | 3rd | 10.93 | 6.60 + 4.33 | +0.21exp 10.72 | 0.1070.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 10.96 | 5.63 + 5.33 | −0.51exp 11.47 | 0.0790.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 7 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 11.33 | 6.00 + 5.33 | −0.41exp 11.74 | 0.0570.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 10 · Supertubos | 1st | 15.00 | 8.33 + 6.67 | +4.28exp 10.72 | 0.2470.758 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 12 · Supertubos | 2nd | 12.60 | 7.00 + 5.60 | +0.86exp 11.74 | 0.2750.724 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 8 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 9 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 5.10 | 4.33 + 0.77 | −5.62exp 10.72 | 0.0090.691 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 9 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 10.80 | 6.00 + 4.80 | −0.67exp 11.47 | −0.0220.660 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 10 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 3 · Winki Pop | 1st | 15.23 | 8.50 + 6.73 | +3.49exp 11.74 | 0.1370.630 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 11 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 2 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 12.44 | 6.67 + 5.77 | +0.40exp 12.04 | 0.1480.602 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 12 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Main Break | 1st | 14.56 | 7.33 + 7.23 | +3.84exp 10.72 | 0.3150.574 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 13 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 4 · Main Break | 1st | 12.77 | 6.60 + 6.17 | +1.03exp 11.74 | 0.3470.548 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Main Break | 1st | 13.00 | 8.00 + 5.00 | +0.96exp 12.04 | 0.3750.524 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 14.17 | 7.17 + 7.00 | +1.12exp 13.05 | 0.4090.500 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Itaúna | 3rd | 8.30 | 5.00 + 3.30 | −2.42exp 10.72 | 0.2810.477 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 17 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.97 | 6.30 + 5.67 | +0.50exp 11.47 | 0.2910.456 | 4-6' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 18 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Pipeline | 3rd | 3.90 | 3.60 + 0.30 | −6.82exp 10.72 | −0.0310.435 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 19 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Pipeline | 3rd | 4.10 | 3.17 + 0.93 | −7.37exp 11.47 | −0.3620.416 | 6-8' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 20 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 7 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 2nd | 12.00 | — | +0.83exp 11.17 | −0.3080.397 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 21 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 7 · Supertubos | 3rd | 7.57 | 4.07 + 3.50 | −3.15exp 10.72 | −0.4370.379 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 22 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 4 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.50 | 6.00 + 5.50 | +0.03exp 11.47 | −0.4160.362 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 23 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 3 · Supertubos | 2nd | 7.10 | 3.83 + 3.27 | −4.64exp 11.74 | −0.6060.345 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 24 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 9.23 | 4.83 + 4.40 | −1.49exp 10.72 | −0.6460.330 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 25 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.07 | 7.17 + 6.90 | +2.60exp 11.47 | −0.5000.315 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 26 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 4.43 | 4.43 (1 of 2) | −7.31exp 11.74 | −0.8070.301 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 27 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.00 | 6.33 + 5.67 | +1.28exp 10.72 | −0.7130.287 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 28 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 11 | 1st | 14.66 | 7.83 + 6.83 | +2.92exp 11.74 | −0.5490.274 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 29 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 6 | 1st | 12.17 | 6.17 + 6.00 | +0.13exp 12.04 | −0.5190.262 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 30 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 3 | 2nd | 14.83 | 8.83 + 6.00 | +1.78exp 13.05 | −0.4150.250 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 31 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Burleigh | 1st | 14.67 | 7.67 + 7.00 | +3.95exp 10.72 | −0.2180.239 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 32 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 4 · Burleigh | 2nd | 13.83 | 8.00 + 5.83 | +2.09exp 11.74 | −0.1140.228 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 33 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Main Break | 2nd | 16.23 | 8.23 + 8.00 | +5.51exp 10.72 | 0.1400.218 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 34 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 7 · Main Break | 2nd | 10.10 | 5.43 + 4.67 | −1.64exp 11.74 | 0.0600.208 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 30 of these 34 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 7 | 13.60 | 15.23 | +2.11 |
| 4-6' | 17 | 11.11 | 16.23 | −0.26 |
| 6-8' | 5 | 8.81 | 14.17 | −2.67 |
| 8-10' | 3 | 11.64 | 13.00 | +0.24 |
| 10-14' | 1 | 11.33 | 11.33 | −0.41 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 11 | 9.37 | 14.66 | −1.84 |
| Onshore | 9 | 12.29 | 15.23 | +0.63 |
| Offshore | 8 | 12.63 | 16.23 | +1.20 |
| Cross | 4 | 11.46 | 12.60 | +0.04 |
| Light | 1 | 13.83 | 13.83 | +2.09 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 33 of his 34 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 33 of 34. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.