HawaiiCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Barron
Mamiya
- Trim
- −0.45per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 61at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0606% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 6220 events
- Heats won
- 27of 62
- Mean heat total
- 11.36over 61
- Best heat
- 18.90Lexus Pipe Pro
The swell · MamiyaCT 2024 and 2025 · 61 rated heats
Scroll to ride 61 heats
The swell · four moments from 61 rated heats
- Heat 27 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe low tide.6.66 against an expected 10.72 (Pipeline, 6-8', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.818.
- Heat 29 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.17.97 (Pipeline, 6-8', calm) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +5.93.
- Heat 52 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · SemifinalsThe deepest trough.7.44 against an expected 13.75: a gap of −6.31, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 61 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.15.37 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at −0.445.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.93 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 3; worst −6.31 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Semifinals heat 1. Axis to ±7, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 61 of this surfer's 62 heats; the other 1 carry no published heat total, so they are absent from the line rather than plotted as zero. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
62 heats across 20 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Pipeline | 1st | 14.10 | 8.93 + 5.17 | +3.38exp 10.72 | 0.1530.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 7 | 1st | 14.16 | 7.33 + 6.83 | +2.42exp 11.74 | 0.2550.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 4 | 1st | 9.50 | 7.17 + 2.33 | −2.54exp 12.04 | 0.1290.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 | 1st | 14.50 | 7.33 + 7.17 | +1.45exp 13.05 | 0.1880.831 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 5 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProSemifinals · heat 1 | 1st | 18.84 | 9.77 + 9.07 | +5.09exp 13.75 | 0.4100.794 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 6 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProFinal · heat 1 | 1st | 16.00 | 10.00 + 6.00 | +1.51exp 14.49 | 0.4590.758 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Sunset Beach | 3rd | 6.14 | 3.27 + 2.87 | −4.58exp 10.72 | 0.2320.724 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 8 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 11.00 | 6.50 + 4.50 | −0.47exp 11.47 | 0.2000.691 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 9 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 13 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 8.43 | 5.50 + 2.93 | −3.31exp 11.74 | 0.0420.660 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.77 | 6.17 + 5.60 | +1.05exp 10.72 | 0.0870.630 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 16 · Supertubos | 2nd | 10.17 | 5.40 + 4.77 | −1.57exp 11.74 | 0.0120.602 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 7.74 | 4.17 + 3.57 | −2.98exp 10.72 | −0.1230.574 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 11 · Winki Pop | 1st | 11.37 | 6.50 + 4.87 | −0.37exp 11.74 | −0.1350.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 6 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 8.74 | 5.17 + 3.57 | −3.30exp 12.04 | −0.2780.524 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Main Break | 3rd | 11.33 | 6.00 + 5.33 | +0.61exp 10.72 | −0.2380.500 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 3rd | 11.43 | 6.00 + 5.43 | −0.04exp 11.47 | −0.2290.477 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 17 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 9.90 | 5.17 + 4.73 | −0.82exp 10.72 | −0.2550.456 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 16.83 | 9.00 + 7.83 | +5.36exp 11.47 | −0.0020.435 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 19 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 8.74 | 7.07 + 1.67 | −3.30exp 12.04 | −0.1510.416 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 5.90 | 3.23 + 2.67 | −4.82exp 10.72 | −0.3620.397 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 21 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 10.50 | 6.67 + 3.83 | −0.97exp 11.47 | −0.3890.379 | 4-6' · Light | Eliminated |
| 22 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Itaúna | 2nd | 10.10 | 5.50 + 4.60 | −0.62exp 10.72 | −0.4000.362 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 23 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Itaúna | 2nd | 7.50 | 4.50 + 3.00 | −3.97exp 11.47 | −0.5610.345 | 4-6' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 24 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 10.20 | 5.20 + 5.00 | −0.52exp 10.72 | −0.5590.330 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 25 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 11.67 | 6.17 + 5.50 | −0.37exp 12.04 | −0.5510.315 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 26 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 9.97 | 6.07 + 3.90 | −3.08exp 13.05 | −0.6650.301 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 27 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Pipeline | 2nd | 6.66 | 3.83 + 2.83 | −4.06exp 10.72 | −0.8180.287 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Pipeline | 1st | 11.37 | 6.10 + 5.27 | −0.37exp 11.74 | −0.7980.274 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 29 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Pipeline | 1st | 17.97 | 10.00 + 7.97 | +5.93exp 12.04 | −0.4940.262 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 30 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Pipeline | 1st | 14.50 | 7.67 + 6.83 | +1.45exp 13.05 | −0.4060.250 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 31 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Pipeline | 1st | 18.90 | 9.57 + 9.33 | +5.15exp 13.75 | −0.1550.239 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 32 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProFinal · heat 1 · Pipeline | 1st | 17.97 | 9.80 + 8.17 | +3.48exp 14.49 | 0.0090.228 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 33 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 2 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 3rd | 11.06 | — | −0.11exp 11.17 | 0.0030.218 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 34 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 14.50 | 7.50 + 7.00 | +3.78exp 10.72 | 0.1740.208 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 35 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 16 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.33 | 5.73 + 5.60 | −0.41exp 11.74 | 0.1470.198 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 36 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 8 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.84 | 6.67 + 6.17 | +0.80exp 12.04 | 0.1770.189 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 37 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Supertubos | 1st | 10.34 | 5.67 + 4.67 | −2.71exp 13.05 | 0.0470.181 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 38 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalSemifinals · heat 2 · Supertubos | 2nd | 9.93 | 5.03 + 4.90 | −3.82exp 13.75 | −0.1280.173 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 39 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 10.33 | 5.33 + 5.00 | −0.39exp 10.72 | −0.1400.165 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 40 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 10.83 | 6.83 + 4.00 | −0.91exp 11.74 | −0.1750.157 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 41 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 8.20 | 4.20 + 4.00 | −2.52exp 10.72 | −0.2810.150 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 42 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 12 | 2nd | 11.76 | 6.43 + 5.33 | +0.02exp 11.74 | −0.2680.144 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 43 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Burleigh | 3rd | 9.10 | 4.93 + 4.17 | −1.62exp 10.72 | −0.3290.137 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 44 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Burleigh | 2nd | 11.17 | 5.67 + 5.50 | −0.30exp 11.47 | −0.3270.131 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 45 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 7 · Burleigh | 1st | 10.77 | 5.77 + 5.00 | −0.97exp 11.74 | −0.3570.125 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 46 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Burleigh | 2nd | 11.17 | 6.17 + 5.00 | −0.87exp 12.04 | −0.3800.119 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 47 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Main Break | 3rd | 11.26 | 5.83 + 5.43 | +0.54exp 10.72 | −0.3380.114 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 48 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 9.24 | 5.17 + 4.07 | −2.23exp 11.47 | −0.4240.109 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 49 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Main Break | 1st | 13.54 | 6.87 + 6.67 | +1.80exp 11.74 | −0.3230.104 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 50 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · The Box | 1st | 15.17 | 8.00 + 7.17 | +3.13exp 12.04 | −0.1680.099 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 51 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Main Break | 1st | 11.16 | 6.83 + 4.33 | −1.89exp 13.05 | −0.2450.095 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 52 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 7.44 | 4.67 + 2.77 | −6.31exp 13.75 | −0.5190.090 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 53 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 12.90 | 6.73 + 6.17 | +2.18exp 10.72 | −0.3970.086 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 54 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 11.97 | 6.10 + 5.87 | +0.50exp 11.47 | −0.3570.082 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| — | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 8 | 2nd | — | — | — | — | not published | — |
| 55 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Itaúna | 3rd | 8.33 | 4.73 + 3.60 | −2.39exp 10.72 | −0.4490.079 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 56 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 2nd | 6.56 | 3.83 + 2.73 | −4.91exp 11.47 | −0.6500.075 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 57 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 8 · Supertubes | 2nd | 11.26 | 8.33 + 2.93 | +0.54exp 10.72 | −0.5960.072 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 58 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 7 · Supertubes | 1st | 12.30 | 6.17 + 6.13 | +0.83exp 11.47 | −0.5320.069 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 59 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 6 · Supertubes | 2nd | 10.60 | 7.10 + 3.50 | −1.44exp 12.04 | −0.5730.065 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 60 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 8.43 | 6.93 + 1.50 | −2.29exp 10.72 | −0.6510.063 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 61 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 15.37 | 7.70 + 7.67 | +3.90exp 11.47 | −0.4450.060 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero (1 here). The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 55 of these 62 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 10 | 9.88 | 11.37 | −1.92 |
| 4-6' | 31 | 11.32 | 18.90 | −0.32 |
| 6-8' | 9 | 12.63 | 18.84 | +0.29 |
| 8-10' | 9 | 12.21 | 16.83 | +0.72 |
| 10-14' | 1 | 8.43 | 8.43 | −3.31 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 18 | 12.12 | 18.90 | +0.43 |
| Offshore | 18 | 10.93 | 16.83 | −0.63 |
| Light | 11 | 12.22 | 18.84 | +0.20 |
| Cross | 8 | 10.07 | 12.84 | −2.00 |
| Onshore | 5 | 10.39 | 12.30 | −1.16 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 60 of his 62 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 60 of 62. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.