JapanCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Connor
O'Leary
- Trim
- 0.16per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 59at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0657% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 6020 events
- Heats won
- 26of 60
- Mean heat total
- 11.10over 59
- Best heat
- 16.37Corona Cero Open J-Bay
The swell · O'LearyCT 2024 and 2025 · 59 rated heats
Scroll to ride 59 heats
The swell · four moments from 59 rated heats
- Heat 9 · Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024 · Round of 16The low tide.8.23 against an expected 12.04 (Sunset Beach, 10-14', cross). His Trim bottoms out at −1.084.
- Heat 24 · VIVO Rio Pro 2024 · QuarterfinalsThe deepest trough.5.90 against an expected 13.05: a gap of −7.15, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 43 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.15.80 (Main Break, 4-6', offshore) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +5.08.
- Heat 59 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.11.67 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at 0.162.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.08 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 1; worst −7.15 at 2024 VIVO Rio Pro · Quarterfinals heat 1. Axis to ±8, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 59 of this surfer's 60 heats; the other 1 carry no published heat total, so they are absent from the line rather than plotted as zero. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
60 heats across 20 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Pipeline | 3rd | 4.40 | 3.17 + 1.23 | −6.32exp 10.72 | −0.2860.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 2 | 1st | 12.33 | 6.33 + 6.00 | +0.86exp 11.47 | −0.2340.912 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 4 | 1st | 8.00 | 4.83 + 3.17 | −3.74exp 11.74 | −0.3920.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 2 | 1st | 7.93 | 5.33 + 2.60 | −4.11exp 12.04 | −0.5600.831 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 5 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 | 1st | 11.50 | 6.50 + 5.00 | −1.55exp 13.05 | −0.6050.794 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 6 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProSemifinals · heat 1 | 2nd | 7.43 | 5.83 + 1.60 | −6.32exp 13.75 | −0.8630.758 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 7.07 | 3.57 + 3.50 | −3.65exp 10.72 | −0.9890.724 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 8 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 11 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 11.50 | 6.00 + 5.50 | −0.24exp 11.74 | −0.9550.691 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 6 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 8.23 | 4.50 + 3.73 | −3.81exp 12.04 | −1.0840.660 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 9.93 | 5.23 + 4.70 | −0.79exp 10.72 | −1.0710.630 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 7 · Supertubos | 2nd | 12.90 | 7.33 + 5.57 | +1.16exp 11.74 | −0.9700.602 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 9 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 11.66 | 5.83 + 5.83 | +0.94exp 10.72 | −0.8840.574 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 4 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 9.34 | 5.27 + 4.07 | −2.40exp 11.74 | −0.9530.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Main Break | 2nd | 12.83 | 7.43 + 5.40 | +2.11exp 10.72 | −0.8150.524 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Main Break | 2nd | 10.10 | 5.43 + 4.67 | −1.64exp 11.74 | −0.8520.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 7.66 | 4.33 + 3.33 | −3.06exp 10.72 | −0.9520.477 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 17 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 13.50 | 7.00 + 6.50 | +2.03exp 11.47 | −0.8170.456 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 18 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.27 | 6.67 + 6.60 | +2.55exp 10.72 | −0.6650.435 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 19 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.50 | 7.83 + 6.67 | +3.03exp 11.47 | −0.4980.416 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.43 | 5.93 + 5.50 | −0.61exp 12.04 | −0.5030.397 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 21 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Itaúna | 2nd | 8.83 | 4.83 + 4.00 | −1.89exp 10.72 | −0.5660.379 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 22 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Itaúna | 1st | 11.83 | 6.50 + 5.33 | +0.36exp 11.47 | −0.5240.362 | 6-8' · Onshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 1 |
| 23 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Itaúna | 1st | 10.27 | 5.17 + 5.10 | −1.77exp 12.04 | −0.5800.345 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 24 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Itaúna | 2nd | 5.90 | 4.40 + 1.50 | −7.15exp 13.05 | −0.8770.330 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 25 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Cloudbreak | 3rd | 8.54 | 4.97 + 3.57 | −2.18exp 10.72 | −0.9360.315 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 26 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 11.70 | 5.93 + 5.77 | +0.23exp 11.47 | −0.8830.301 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 27 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 11.50 | 6.00 + 5.50 | −0.54exp 12.04 | −0.8680.287 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Pipeline | 1st | 7.10 | 3.60 + 3.50 | −3.62exp 10.72 | −0.9920.274 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 29 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 15 · Pipeline | 2nd | 13.00 | 6.67 + 6.33 | +1.26exp 11.74 | −0.8910.262 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 30 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 1 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 10.87 | — | −0.30exp 11.17 | −0.8640.250 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 4 |
| 31 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 4 | 2nd | 13.33 | — | +1.29exp 12.04 | −0.7670.239 | not published | Eliminated |
| 32 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 9 · Supertubos | 2nd | 7.87 | 4.37 + 3.50 | −2.85exp 10.72 | −0.8610.228 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 33 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 6 · Supertubos | 2nd | 10.70 | 5.50 + 5.20 | −1.04exp 11.74 | −0.8690.218 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 34 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 1st | 11.50 | 6.00 + 5.50 | +0.78exp 10.72 | −0.7950.208 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 35 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.20 | 7.00 + 6.20 | +1.46exp 11.74 | −0.6930.198 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 36 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 8.84 | 7.17 + 1.67 | −3.20exp 12.04 | −0.8060.189 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 37 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 8 · Bells Beach | 1st | 10.76 | 6.83 + 3.93 | +0.04exp 10.72 | −0.7680.181 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 38 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 2 | 1st | 13.43 | 7.33 + 6.10 | +1.69exp 11.74 | −0.6570.173 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 39 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 1 | 2nd | 13.34 | 8.67 + 4.67 | +1.30exp 12.04 | −0.5690.165 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 40 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Burleigh | 3rd | 8.40 | 4.23 + 4.17 | −2.32exp 10.72 | −0.6480.157 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 41 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Burleigh | 1st | 14.00 | 7.50 + 6.50 | +2.53exp 11.47 | −0.5050.150 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 42 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 2 · Burleigh | 2nd | 11.17 | 6.50 + 4.67 | −0.57exp 11.74 | −0.5080.144 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 43 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 15.80 | 8.50 + 7.30 | +5.08exp 10.72 | −0.2560.137 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 44 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Main Break | 1st | 14.37 | 8.50 + 5.87 | +2.63exp 11.74 | −0.1250.131 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 45 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · The Box | 1st | 8.50 | 5.67 + 2.83 | −3.54exp 12.04 | −0.2800.125 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 46 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Main Break | 2nd | 8.66 | 6.83 + 1.83 | −4.39exp 13.05 | −0.4650.119 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 47 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 10.93 | 6.50 + 4.43 | +0.21exp 10.72 | −0.4350.114 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 6 |
| 48 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 6 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 13.90 | 7.07 + 6.83 | +2.43exp 11.47 | −0.3050.109 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| — | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 8 | 1st | — | — | — | — | not published | — |
| 49 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 | 2nd | 13.37 | 6.87 + 6.50 | +0.32exp 13.05 | −0.2770.104 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 50 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.20 | 6.33 + 4.87 | +0.48exp 10.72 | −0.2430.099 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 51 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Itaúna | 2nd | 9.60 | 5.93 + 3.67 | −1.87exp 11.47 | −0.3160.095 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 52 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 3 · Supertubes | 3rd | 7.64 | 5.07 + 2.57 | −3.08exp 10.72 | −0.4410.090 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 53 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 8 · Supertubes | 1st | 13.50 | 7.50 + 6.00 | +2.03exp 11.47 | −0.3300.086 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 54 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 7 · Supertubes | 1st | 12.83 | 8.50 + 4.33 | +0.79exp 12.04 | −0.2790.082 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 55 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Supertubes | 1st | 16.37 | 8.60 + 7.77 | +3.32exp 13.05 | −0.1160.079 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 56 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BaySemifinals · heat 2 · Supertubes | 1st | 16.33 | 10.00 + 6.33 | +2.58exp 13.75 | 0.0050.075 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 57 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayFinal · heat 1 · Supertubes | 1st | 15.67 | 8.17 + 7.50 | +1.18exp 14.49 | 0.0590.072 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 58 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 13.03 | 7.03 + 6.00 | +2.31exp 10.72 | 0.1600.069 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 59 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 11.67 | 6.17 + 5.50 | +0.20exp 11.47 | 0.1620.065 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero (1 here). The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 50 of these 60 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 9 | 11.48 | 14.00 | +0.07 |
| 4-6' | 25 | 11.74 | 16.33 | +0.22 |
| 6-8' | 13 | 9.92 | 16.37 | −2.19 |
| 8-10' | 8 | 10.65 | 14.37 | −0.77 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 9.87 | 11.50 | −2.03 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 19 | 11.08 | 16.37 | −0.75 |
| Calm | 16 | 10.82 | 14.00 | −0.47 |
| Light | 9 | 11.83 | 14.50 | −0.24 |
| Onshore | 8 | 11.17 | 13.50 | −0.29 |
| Cross | 5 | 10.28 | 12.90 | −1.26 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 57 of his 60 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 57 of 60. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.