AustraliaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Ethan
Ewing
- Trim
- 1.54per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 72at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0364% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 7221 events
- Heats won
- 43of 72
- Mean heat total
- 12.93over 72
- Best heat
- 18.76Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach
The swell · EwingCT 2024 and 2025 · 72 rated heats
Scroll to ride 72 heats
The swell · four moments from 72 rated heats
- Heat 4 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · QuarterfinalsThe deepest trough.2.73 against an expected 13.05: a gap of −10.32, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 7 · Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024 · Round of 16The low tide.7.67 against an expected 12.04 (Sunset Beach, 10-14', cross). His Trim bottoms out at −0.505.
- Heat 51 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.18.76 (6-8', calm) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +6.72.
- Heat 72 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · QuarterfinalsWhere it ends.14.20 against 13.05, leaving his Trim at 1.537.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +6.72 at 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 16 heat 1; worst −10.32 at 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Quarterfinals heat 1. Axis to ±11, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 72 of this surfer's 72 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
72 heats across 21 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Pipeline | 2nd | 8.33 | 6.33 + 2.00 | −2.39exp 10.72 | −0.1080.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 1 | 1st | 12.66 | 7.83 + 4.83 | +0.92exp 11.74 | −0.0620.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 1 | 1st | 14.83 | 7.60 + 7.23 | +2.79exp 12.04 | 0.0670.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 | 2nd | 2.73 | 1.50 + 1.23 | −10.32exp 13.05 | −0.4020.831 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 6 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 13.40 | 8.00 + 5.40 | +2.68exp 10.72 | −0.2630.794 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 9 |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 9 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 10.17 | 5.50 + 4.67 | −1.57exp 11.74 | −0.3220.758 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 5 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 7.67 | 4.67 + 3.00 | −4.37exp 12.04 | −0.5050.724 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 5 · Supertubos | 2nd | 13.00 | 6.67 + 6.33 | +2.28exp 10.72 | −0.3790.691 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 5 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.36 | 7.83 + 5.53 | +1.62exp 11.74 | −0.2890.660 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 3 · Supertubos | 1st | 14.34 | 8.17 + 6.17 | +2.30exp 12.04 | −0.1720.630 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 14.17 | 8.00 + 6.17 | +1.12exp 13.05 | −0.1140.602 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalSemifinals · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.00 | 6.77 + 6.23 | −0.75exp 13.75 | −0.1420.574 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 13 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalFinal · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 11.13 | 7.40 + 3.73 | −3.36exp 14.49 | −0.2880.548 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 5 · Bells Beach | 1st | 9.90 | 5.07 + 4.83 | −0.82exp 10.72 | −0.3120.524 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 15 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 5 · Winki Pop | 1st | 12.93 | 6.50 + 6.43 | +1.19exp 11.74 | −0.2440.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 3 · Winki Pop | 1st | 15.77 | 8.50 + 7.27 | +3.73exp 12.04 | −0.0650.477 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 17 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 6.00 | 6.00 (1 of 2) | −7.05exp 13.05 | −0.3800.456 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 18 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Main Break | 1st | 17.00 | 9.50 + 7.50 | +6.28exp 10.72 | −0.0790.435 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 9 |
| 19 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 9 · Main Break | 1st | 14.33 | 7.83 + 6.50 | +2.59exp 11.74 | 0.0410.416 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 20 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Main Break | 2nd | 13.44 | 7.17 + 6.27 | +1.40exp 12.04 | 0.1020.397 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 21 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 13.23 | 6.63 + 6.60 | +2.51exp 10.72 | 0.2110.379 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 1 |
| 22 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 14.17 | 8.50 + 5.67 | +2.13exp 12.04 | 0.2980.362 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 23 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 1st | 12.73 | 6.90 + 5.83 | +2.01exp 10.72 | 0.3750.345 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 24 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.76 | 7.33 + 6.43 | +1.72exp 12.04 | 0.4360.330 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 25 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.87 | 6.50 + 6.37 | +2.15exp 10.72 | 0.5130.315 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 26 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Itaúna | 1st | 13.67 | 7.67 + 6.00 | +1.63exp 12.04 | 0.5630.301 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 27 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Itaúna | 2nd | 9.73 | 5.33 + 4.40 | −3.32exp 13.05 | 0.3880.287 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 28 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 12.04 | 6.17 + 5.87 | +1.32exp 10.72 | 0.4300.274 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 29 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 12.40 | 6.83 + 5.57 | +0.36exp 12.04 | 0.4270.262 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 30 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 15.50 | 8.33 + 7.17 | +2.45exp 13.05 | 0.5180.250 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 31 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 15.17 | 9.00 + 6.17 | +1.42exp 13.75 | 0.5590.239 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 32 | 2024 Lexus WSL Finals FinalsMatch 1 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 14.83 | 8.33 + 6.50 | +2.71exp 12.12 | 0.6560.228 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 33 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Pipeline | 2nd | 9.27 | 5.50 + 3.77 | −1.45exp 10.72 | 0.5610.218 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 34 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Pipeline | 1st | 13.27 | 7.17 + 6.10 | +1.53exp 11.74 | 0.6040.208 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 35 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Pipeline | 2nd | 14.83 | 7.83 + 7.00 | +2.79exp 12.04 | 0.7030.198 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 36 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 4 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 13.73 | — | +2.56exp 11.17 | 0.7870.189 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 1 |
| 37 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 1 | 1st | 13.60 | — | +1.56exp 12.04 | 0.8220.181 | not published | Adv to QF - HT 1 |
| 38 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 | 1st | 14.50 | — | +1.45exp 13.05 | 0.8500.173 | not published | Adv to SF - HT 1 |
| 39 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProSemifinals · heat 1 | 2nd | 15.70 | — | +1.95exp 13.75 | 0.9000.165 | not published | Eliminated |
| 40 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 5 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.83 | 7.83 + 6.00 | +3.11exp 10.72 | 0.9990.157 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 41 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 5 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.57 | 6.00 + 5.57 | −0.17exp 11.74 | 0.9470.150 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 42 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 3 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.76 | 6.43 + 6.33 | +0.72exp 12.04 | 0.9360.144 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 43 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.50 | 9.17 + 3.33 | −0.55exp 13.05 | 0.8690.137 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 44 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalSemifinals · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 3.50 | 2.50 + 1.00 | −10.25exp 13.75 | 0.3670.131 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 45 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Punta Roca | 1st | 11.50 | 6.00 + 5.50 | +0.78exp 10.72 | 0.3860.125 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 46 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 5 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.23 | 7.00 + 6.23 | +1.49exp 11.74 | 0.4350.119 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 47 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.76 | 7.43 + 7.33 | +2.72exp 12.04 | 0.5390.114 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 48 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.47 | 8.17 + 3.30 | −1.58exp 13.05 | 0.4430.109 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 49 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 5 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 12.97 | 6.67 + 6.30 | +2.25exp 10.72 | 0.5250.104 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 50 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 1 | 1st | 15.00 | 8.83 + 6.17 | +3.26exp 11.74 | 0.6480.099 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 51 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 1 | 1st | 18.76 | 9.43 + 9.33 | +6.72exp 12.04 | 0.9220.095 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 52 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 1 | 2nd | 14.43 | 7.43 + 7.00 | +1.38exp 13.05 | 0.9430.090 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 53 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Burleigh | 1st | 11.66 | 7.33 + 4.33 | +0.94exp 10.72 | 0.9430.086 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 54 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 5 · Burleigh | 2nd | 10.10 | 5.10 + 5.00 | −1.64exp 11.74 | 0.8260.082 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 55 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 2nd | 13.77 | 7.10 + 6.67 | +3.05exp 10.72 | 0.9260.079 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 56 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Main Break | 2nd | 14.33 | 8.00 + 6.33 | +2.59exp 11.74 | 1.0010.075 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 57 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Lower Trestles | 3rd | 10.10 | 6.83 + 3.27 | −0.62exp 10.72 | 0.9280.072 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 58 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 14.93 | 8.00 + 6.93 | +3.46exp 11.47 | 1.0420.069 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 59 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 14.67 | 8.00 + 6.67 | +2.63exp 12.04 | 1.1140.065 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 60 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 14.63 | 7.70 + 6.93 | +1.58exp 13.05 | 1.1350.063 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 61 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Itaúna | 2nd | 8.93 | 5.00 + 3.93 | −1.79exp 10.72 | 1.0030.060 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 62 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 1st | 15.27 | 8.00 + 7.27 | +3.80exp 11.47 | 1.1290.057 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 63 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.63 | 6.63 + 6.00 | +0.59exp 12.04 | 1.1050.054 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 64 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Itaúna | 1st | 14.43 | 8.00 + 6.43 | +1.38exp 13.05 | 1.1180.052 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 65 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Itaúna | 2nd | 14.20 | 7.17 + 7.03 | +0.45exp 13.75 | 1.0870.050 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 66 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 5 · Supertubes | 1st | 11.53 | 5.93 + 5.60 | +0.81exp 10.72 | 1.0750.047 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 67 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 8 · Supertubes | 1st | 12.00 | 6.83 + 5.17 | −0.04exp 12.04 | 1.0240.045 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 68 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Supertubes | 2nd | 16.07 | 8.40 + 7.67 | +3.02exp 13.05 | 1.1150.043 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 69 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 16.57 | 8.57 + 8.00 | +5.85exp 10.72 | 1.3280.041 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 70 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 15.07 | 7.57 + 7.50 | +3.60exp 11.47 | 1.4310.039 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 71 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 16.23 | 8.50 + 7.73 | +4.19exp 12.04 | 1.5550.038 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 72 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 14.20 | 7.17 + 7.03 | +1.15exp 13.05 | 1.5370.036 | 6-8' · Light | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 63 of these 72 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 16 | 12.82 | 17.00 | +0.54 |
| 4-6' | 27 | 12.63 | 14.93 | +0.90 |
| 6-8' | 16 | 13.33 | 18.76 | +1.28 |
| 8-10' | 7 | 13.71 | 16.57 | +2.21 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 8.92 | 10.17 | −2.97 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 20 | 13.77 | 17.00 | +1.89 |
| Calm | 17 | 13.31 | 18.76 | +1.82 |
| Cross | 12 | 11.53 | 14.34 | −1.00 |
| Light | 12 | 11.46 | 14.93 | −0.52 |
| Onshore | 7 | 13.67 | 15.77 | +1.80 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 68 of his 72 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 68 of 72. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.