United StatesCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 2025
Griffin
Colapinto
- Trim
- 1.47per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 85at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0202% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 8522 events
- Heats won
- 53of 85
- Mean heat total
- 13.14over 85
- Best heat
- 18.00Lexus Tahiti Pro
The swell · ColapintoCT 2024 and 2025 · 85 rated heats
Scroll to ride 85 heats
The swell · four moments from 85 rated heats
- Heat 7 · MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2024 · Opening RoundThe low tide.4.83 against an expected 10.72 (Supertubos, 4-6', offshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.732.
- Heat 62 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · FinalThe deepest trough.4.83 against an expected 14.49: a gap of −9.66, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 78 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.18.00 (Teahupo'o, 8-10', calm) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +7.28.
- Heat 85 · Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 2025 · Title MatchWhere it ends.12.33 against 13.32, leaving his Trim at 1.470.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +7.28 at 2025 Lexus Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 6; worst −9.66 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Final heat 1. Axis to ±10, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 85 of this surfer's 85 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
85 heats across 22 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Pipeline | 1st | 10.07 | 8.50 + 1.57 | −0.65exp 10.72 | −0.0290.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 9 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 9 | 1st | 11.17 | 7.00 + 4.17 | −0.57exp 11.74 | −0.0540.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 5 | 2nd | 6.60 | 5.33 + 1.27 | −5.44exp 12.04 | −0.2970.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 5 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 8.67 | 5.50 + 3.17 | −2.05exp 10.72 | −0.3770.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 13.67 | 9.00 + 4.67 | +1.93exp 11.74 | −0.2720.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 7.00 | 4.17 + 2.83 | −5.04exp 12.04 | −0.4880.758 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 3 · Supertubos | 3rd | 4.83 | 4.83 + 0.00 | −5.89exp 10.72 | −0.7320.724 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 1 · Molhe Leste | 1st | 14.80 | 7.53 + 7.27 | +3.33exp 11.47 | −0.5480.691 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 13 · Supertubos | 1st | 14.83 | 8.00 + 6.83 | +3.09exp 11.74 | −0.3840.660 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 7 · Supertubos | 1st | 16.44 | 8.77 + 7.67 | +4.40exp 12.04 | −0.1680.630 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.43 | 6.83 + 6.60 | +0.38exp 13.05 | −0.1430.602 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalSemifinals · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 15.50 | 7.83 + 7.67 | +1.75exp 13.75 | −0.0580.574 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 13 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalFinal · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 17.94 | 9.67 + 8.27 | +3.45exp 14.49 | 0.1010.548 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 6 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.00 | 6.50 + 5.50 | +1.28exp 10.72 | 0.1540.524 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 9 |
| 15 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 9 · Winki Pop | 1st | 15.57 | 8.17 + 7.40 | +3.83exp 11.74 | 0.3200.500 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 16 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 5 · Winki Pop | 1st | 11.67 | 7.17 + 4.50 | −0.37exp 12.04 | 0.2880.477 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 17 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Bells Beach | 1st | 16.90 | 8.50 + 8.40 | +3.85exp 13.05 | 0.4490.456 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 18 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachSemifinals · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 1st | 16.83 | 8.50 + 8.33 | +3.08exp 13.75 | 0.5680.435 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 19 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachFinal · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 12.80 | 6.93 + 5.87 | −1.69exp 14.49 | 0.4660.416 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 20 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Main Break | 2nd | 12.20 | 6.60 + 5.60 | +1.48exp 10.72 | 0.5120.397 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 21 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 5 · Main Break | 1st | 11.87 | 6.17 + 5.70 | +0.13exp 11.74 | 0.4950.379 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 22 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Main Break | 1st | 12.07 | 6.67 + 5.40 | +0.03exp 12.04 | 0.4740.362 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 23 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Main Break | 2nd | 11.17 | 6.17 + 5.00 | −1.88exp 13.05 | 0.3670.345 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 24 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 11.47 | 5.77 + 5.70 | +0.75exp 10.72 | 0.3850.330 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 25 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 14.57 | 7.50 + 7.07 | +3.10exp 11.47 | 0.5070.315 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 26 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.43 | 7.50 + 6.93 | +3.71exp 10.72 | 0.6520.301 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 1 |
| 27 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.48 | 9.43 + 4.05 | +1.44exp 12.04 | 0.6870.287 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 28 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 3rd | 7.70 | 5.67 + 2.03 | −3.02exp 10.72 | 0.5200.274 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 29 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.50 | 7.00 + 5.50 | +1.03exp 11.47 | 0.5430.262 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 30 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.40 | 7.17 + 5.23 | +0.36exp 12.04 | 0.5350.250 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 31 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Itaúna | 1st | 10.07 | 6.00 + 4.07 | −2.98exp 13.05 | 0.3760.239 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 32 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Itaúna | 2nd | 14.27 | 7.17 + 7.10 | +0.52exp 13.75 | 0.3820.228 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 33 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 9.83 | 5.83 + 4.00 | −0.89exp 10.72 | 0.3250.218 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 34 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 14.94 | 8.17 + 6.77 | +3.47exp 11.47 | 0.4670.208 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 1 |
| 35 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 14.50 | 7.67 + 6.83 | +2.46exp 12.04 | 0.5570.198 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 36 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 13.83 | 8.33 + 5.50 | +0.78exp 13.05 | 0.5670.189 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 37 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 11.90 | 6.33 + 5.57 | −1.85exp 13.75 | 0.4580.181 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 38 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProFinal · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 12.80 | 6.67 + 6.13 | −1.69exp 14.49 | 0.3610.173 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 39 | 2024 Lexus WSL Finals FinalsMatch 3 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 14.33 | 7.33 + 7.00 | +1.17exp 13.16 | 0.3970.165 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 40 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Pipeline | 3rd | 10.93 | 6.60 + 4.33 | +0.21exp 10.72 | 0.3890.157 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 41 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Pipeline | 1st | 10.67 | 6.50 + 4.17 | −0.80exp 11.47 | 0.3350.150 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 42 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Pipeline | 2nd | 8.10 | 4.33 + 3.77 | −3.64exp 11.74 | 0.1560.144 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 43 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 5 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 14.57 | — | +3.40exp 11.17 | 0.3020.137 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 3 |
| 44 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 3 | 2nd | 10.17 | — | −1.87exp 12.04 | 0.2040.131 | not published | Eliminated |
| 45 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 3 · Supertubos | 1st | 14.00 | 8.00 + 6.00 | +3.28exp 10.72 | 0.3430.125 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 46 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 13 · Supertubos | 2nd | 13.30 | 6.80 + 6.50 | +1.56exp 11.74 | 0.3980.119 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 47 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.87 | 7.70 + 7.17 | +4.15exp 10.72 | 0.5670.114 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 48 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 12.86 | 6.53 + 6.33 | +1.12exp 11.74 | 0.5920.109 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 49 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 11 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 10.33 | 6.00 + 4.33 | −0.39exp 10.72 | 0.5470.104 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 50 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 10 | 1st | 14.60 | 7.33 + 7.27 | +2.86exp 11.74 | 0.6520.099 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 51 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 5 | 1st | 12.90 | 6.57 + 6.33 | +0.86exp 12.04 | 0.6610.095 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 52 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 3 | 1st | 17.56 | 9.43 + 8.13 | +4.51exp 13.05 | 0.8350.090 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 53 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachSemifinals · heat 2 | 2nd | 14.33 | 8.00 + 6.33 | +0.58exp 13.75 | 0.8230.086 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 54 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Burleigh | 3rd | 10.23 | 5.33 + 4.90 | −0.49exp 10.72 | 0.7640.082 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 55 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Burleigh | 1st | 15.73 | 8.50 + 7.23 | +4.26exp 11.47 | 0.9220.079 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 56 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 15 · Burleigh | 2nd | 13.60 | 7.00 + 6.60 | +1.86exp 11.74 | 0.9640.075 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 57 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Main Break | 2nd | 11.80 | 6.17 + 5.63 | +1.08exp 10.72 | 0.9690.072 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 58 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 2 · Main Break | 1st | 10.97 | 6.50 + 4.47 | −0.77exp 11.74 | 0.8910.069 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 59 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · The Box | 1st | 16.00 | 9.00 + 7.00 | +3.96exp 12.04 | 1.0290.065 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 60 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 16.33 | 10.00 + 6.33 | +3.28exp 13.05 | 1.1310.063 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 61 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 12.17 | 6.50 + 5.67 | −1.58exp 13.75 | 1.0080.060 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 62 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProFinal · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 4.83 | 4.83 (1 of 2) | −9.66exp 14.49 | 0.5270.057 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 63 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 15.40 | 7.73 + 7.67 | +4.68exp 10.72 | 0.7140.054 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 64 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 16.83 | 8.93 + 7.90 | +4.79exp 12.04 | 0.8980.052 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 65 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 16.40 | 8.40 + 8.00 | +3.35exp 13.05 | 1.0090.050 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 66 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 15.20 | 7.93 + 7.27 | +1.45exp 13.75 | 1.0290.047 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 67 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Itaúna | 3rd | 8.57 | 5.07 + 3.50 | −2.15exp 10.72 | 0.8850.045 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 6 |
| 68 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 6 · Itaúna | 1st | 9.20 | 4.83 + 4.37 | −2.27exp 11.47 | 0.7430.043 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 69 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Itaúna | 1st | 13.87 | 7.17 + 6.70 | +1.83exp 12.04 | 0.7920.041 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 70 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Itaúna | 1st | 14.90 | 7.67 + 7.23 | +1.85exp 13.05 | 0.8400.039 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 71 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Itaúna | 1st | 14.84 | 8.17 + 6.67 | +1.09exp 13.75 | 0.8510.038 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 72 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProFinal · heat 1 · Itaúna | 2nd | 14.40 | 8.23 + 6.17 | −0.09exp 14.49 | 0.8090.036 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 73 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 6 · Supertubes | 2nd | 15.67 | 7.87 + 7.80 | +4.95exp 10.72 | 0.9960.034 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 74 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 5 · Supertubes | 1st | 11.83 | 6.50 + 5.33 | +0.36exp 11.47 | 0.9670.033 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 75 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 4 · Supertubes | 1st | 14.37 | 7.50 + 6.87 | +2.33exp 12.04 | 1.0280.031 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 76 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Supertubes | 1st | 15.03 | 7.53 + 7.50 | +1.98exp 13.05 | 1.0720.030 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 77 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BaySemifinals · heat 1 · Supertubes | 2nd | 16.33 | 8.33 + 8.00 | +2.58exp 13.75 | 1.1400.028 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 78 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 18.00 | 9.33 + 8.67 | +7.28exp 10.72 | 1.4170.027 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 79 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 15.00 | 7.77 + 7.23 | +2.96exp 12.04 | 1.4860.026 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 80 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 16.76 | 8.43 + 8.33 | +3.71exp 13.05 | 1.5870.025 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 81 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 14.83 | 7.60 + 7.23 | +1.08exp 13.75 | 1.5640.024 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 82 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProFinal · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 13.67 | 8.00 + 5.67 | −0.82exp 14.49 | 1.4570.023 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 83 | 2025 Lexus WSL Finals Fiji FinalsMatch 2 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 16.33 | 8.33 + 8.00 | +3.63exp 12.70 | 1.5550.022 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 84 | 2025 Lexus WSL Finals Fiji FinalsMatch 3 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 15.43 | 7.83 + 7.60 | +2.27exp 13.16 | 1.5870.021 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 85 | 2025 Lexus WSL Finals Fiji FinalsTitle Match · heat 1 · Cloudbreakworld #1 wins the title by winning Heat 1, otherwise best of three · lost 0–1 | 2nd | 12.33 | 6.33 + 6.00 | −0.99exp 13.32 | 1.4700.020 | 4-6' · Light | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 78 of these 85 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 19 | 13.12 | 17.94 | +0.30 |
| 4-6' | 42 | 13.64 | 17.56 | +1.70 |
| 6-8' | 14 | 12.71 | 16.76 | +0.14 |
| 8-10' | 6 | 11.90 | 18.00 | +0.49 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 10.34 | 13.67 | −1.56 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 30 | 12.41 | 16.33 | +0.06 |
| Calm | 19 | 12.63 | 18.00 | +1.13 |
| Light | 15 | 14.86 | 16.90 | +2.37 |
| Cross | 10 | 13.61 | 17.94 | +1.20 |
| Onshore | 9 | 13.45 | 17.56 | +0.89 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 83 of his 85 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 83 of 85. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.