AustraliaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 2025
Jack
Robinson
- Trim
- 0.97per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 68at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0434% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 6822 events
- Heats won
- 45of 68
- Mean heat total
- 13.17over 68
- Best heat
- 18.10Lexus Tahiti Pro
The swell · RobinsonCT 2024 and 2025 · 68 rated heats
Scroll to ride 68 heats
The swell · four moments from 68 rated heats
- Heat 2 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Round of 32The low tide.10.16 against an expected 11.74 (8-10', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.005.
- Heat 55 · Lexus Trestles Pro 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.17.07 (Lower Trestles, 4-6', calm) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +5.03.
- Heat 68 · Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 2025 · Match 1The deepest trough.5.83 against an expected 12.12: a gap of −6.29, his largest miss in these seasons.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.03 at 2025 Lexus Trestles Pro · Round of 16 heat 6; worst −6.29 at 2025 Lexus WSL Finals Fiji · Match 1. Axis to ±7, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 68 of this surfer's 68 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
68 heats across 22 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Pipeline | 1st | 12.27 | 6.40 + 5.87 | +1.55exp 10.72 | 0.0700.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 5 | 2nd | 10.16 | 5.83 + 4.33 | −1.58exp 11.74 | −0.0050.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 12.00 | 6.40 + 5.60 | +1.28exp 10.72 | 0.0530.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 16 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 13.77 | 7.50 + 6.27 | +2.03exp 11.74 | 0.1420.831 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 8 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 14.66 | 7.83 + 6.83 | +2.62exp 12.04 | 0.2540.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 17.37 | 9.77 + 7.60 | +4.32exp 13.05 | 0.4380.758 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachSemifinals · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 16.10 | 8.10 + 8.00 | +2.35exp 13.75 | 0.5240.724 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 8 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachFinal · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 18.04 | 9.87 + 8.17 | +3.55exp 14.49 | 0.6610.691 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 6 · Supertubos | 1st | 14.76 | 8.83 + 5.93 | +4.04exp 10.72 | 0.8130.660 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 9 |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 9 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.90 | 6.00 + 5.90 | +0.16exp 11.74 | 0.7840.630 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 5 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.84 | 4.67 + 4.17 | −3.20exp 12.04 | 0.6040.602 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 4 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.33 | 6.83 + 5.50 | +1.61exp 10.72 | 0.6490.574 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 1 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 12.93 | 7.00 + 5.93 | +1.19exp 11.74 | 0.6730.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 2nd | 14.66 | 7.83 + 6.83 | +3.94exp 10.72 | 0.8210.524 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 16 · Main Break | 1st | 13.83 | 8.50 + 5.33 | +2.09exp 11.74 | 0.8780.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Main Break | 1st | 15.13 | 8.60 + 6.53 | +3.09exp 12.04 | 0.9780.477 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 17 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Main Break | 1st | 15.43 | 8.33 + 7.10 | +2.38exp 13.05 | 1.0410.456 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 18 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Main Break | 1st | 14.33 | 7.33 + 7.00 | +0.58exp 13.75 | 1.0210.435 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 19 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProFinal · heat 1 · Main Break | 1st | 17.27 | 9.10 + 8.17 | +2.78exp 14.49 | 1.1000.416 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 20 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 11.24 | 6.67 + 4.57 | +0.52exp 10.72 | 1.0740.397 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 21 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 15.90 | 8.03 + 7.87 | +4.43exp 11.47 | 1.2250.379 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 22 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.60 | 8.33 + 5.27 | +2.88exp 10.72 | 1.3000.362 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 23 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.33 | 7.50 + 6.83 | +2.29exp 12.04 | 1.3450.345 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 24 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.50 | 6.50 + 5.00 | −1.55exp 13.05 | 1.2140.330 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 25 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.87 | 7.00 + 5.87 | +2.15exp 10.72 | 1.2560.315 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 1 |
| 26 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Itaúna | 2nd | 8.40 | 4.23 + 4.17 | −3.64exp 12.04 | 1.0350.301 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 27 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 11.00 | 7.50 + 3.50 | +0.28exp 10.72 | 1.0010.287 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 28 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 12.34 | 6.67 + 5.67 | +0.30exp 12.04 | 0.9690.274 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 29 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 12.33 | 7.33 + 5.00 | −0.72exp 13.05 | 0.8930.262 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 30 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 9.10 | 4.83 + 4.27 | −4.65exp 13.75 | 0.6430.250 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 31 | 2024 Lexus WSL Finals FinalsMatch 2 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 9.94 | 5.27 + 4.67 | −2.76exp 12.70 | 0.4890.239 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 32 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Pipeline | 1st | 13.10 | 8.00 + 5.10 | +2.38exp 10.72 | 0.5740.228 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 9 |
| 33 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 9 · Pipeline | 2nd | 12.17 | 10.00 + 2.17 | +0.43exp 11.74 | 0.5680.218 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 34 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 3 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 12.96 | — | +1.79exp 11.17 | 0.6230.208 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 7 |
| 35 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 7 | 1st | 13.83 | — | +1.79exp 12.04 | 0.6750.198 | not published | Adv to QF - HT 4 |
| 36 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 | 1st | 13.83 | — | +0.78exp 13.05 | 0.6800.189 | not published | Adv to SF - HT 2 |
| 37 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProSemifinals · heat 2 | 2nd | 15.03 | — | +1.28exp 13.75 | 0.7070.181 | not published | Eliminated |
| 38 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 4 · Supertubos | 1st | 10.83 | 5.83 + 5.00 | +0.11exp 10.72 | 0.6800.173 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 39 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 15.67 | 8.17 + 7.50 | +3.93exp 11.74 | 0.8270.165 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 40 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.93 | 7.33 + 4.60 | −0.11exp 12.04 | 0.7840.157 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 41 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.50 | 5.00 + 3.50 | −4.55exp 13.05 | 0.5440.150 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 42 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.17 | 5.17 + 4.00 | −1.55exp 10.72 | 0.4490.144 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 43 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.17 | 8.00 + 5.17 | +1.43exp 11.74 | 0.4930.137 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 44 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 7 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.93 | 6.93 + 6.00 | +2.21exp 10.72 | 0.5710.131 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 45 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 16 | 1st | 16.13 | 8.20 + 7.93 | +4.39exp 11.74 | 0.7430.125 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 46 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 8 | 1st | 16.53 | 8.70 + 7.83 | +4.49exp 12.04 | 0.9120.119 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 47 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 4 | 1st | 15.94 | 8.17 + 7.77 | +2.89exp 13.05 | 1.0020.114 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 48 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachSemifinals · heat 2 | 1st | 14.67 | 7.50 + 7.17 | +0.92exp 13.75 | 0.9980.109 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 49 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachFinal · heat 1 | 1st | 14.14 | 7.77 + 6.37 | −0.35exp 14.49 | 0.9370.104 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 50 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Burleigh | 3rd | 9.13 | 4.83 + 4.30 | −1.59exp 10.72 | 0.8230.099 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 51 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Burleigh | 3rd | 7.06 | 5.33 + 1.73 | −4.41exp 11.47 | 0.5870.095 | 1-4' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 52 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Main Break | 1st | 15.56 | 8.93 + 6.63 | +4.84exp 10.72 | 0.7790.090 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 53 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 16 · Main Break | 2nd | 11.33 | 6.00 + 5.33 | −0.41exp 11.74 | 0.7250.086 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 54 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 11.74 | 6.17 + 5.57 | +1.02exp 10.72 | 0.7380.082 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 55 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 17.07 | 8.87 + 8.20 | +5.03exp 12.04 | 0.9320.079 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 56 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 | 1st | 16.27 | 9.00 + 7.27 | +3.22exp 13.05 | 1.0350.075 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 57 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProSemifinals · heat 2 | 2nd | 16.10 | 8.07 + 8.03 | +2.35exp 13.75 | 1.0950.072 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 58 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 2nd | 10.83 | 6.00 + 4.83 | +0.11exp 10.72 | 1.0500.069 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 59 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Itaúna | 1st | 13.04 | 6.77 + 6.27 | +1.57exp 11.47 | 1.0740.065 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 60 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Itaúna | 2nd | 10.50 | 6.00 + 4.50 | −1.54exp 12.04 | 0.9550.063 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 61 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 7 · Supertubes | 1st | 14.83 | 8.00 + 6.83 | +4.11exp 10.72 | 1.0980.060 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 62 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 2 · Supertubes | 2nd | 9.76 | 7.93 + 1.83 | −2.28exp 12.04 | 0.9450.057 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 63 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 15.23 | 8.53 + 6.70 | +4.51exp 10.72 | 1.1060.054 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 64 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 11.67 | 6.17 + 5.50 | −0.37exp 12.04 | 1.0390.052 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 65 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 15.80 | 8.23 + 7.57 | +2.75exp 13.05 | 1.1170.050 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 66 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 18.10 | 9.27 + 8.83 | +4.35exp 13.75 | 1.2630.047 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 67 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProFinal · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 16.90 | 9.50 + 7.40 | +2.41exp 14.49 | 1.3150.045 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 68 | 2025 Lexus WSL Finals Fiji FinalsMatch 1 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 5.83 | 3.83 + 2.00 | −6.29exp 12.12 | 0.9710.043 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 57 of these 68 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 9 | 11.73 | 15.67 | −0.01 |
| 4-6' | 32 | 12.79 | 17.37 | +0.88 |
| 6-8' | 16 | 14.49 | 18.10 | +1.83 |
| 8-10' | 5 | 12.98 | 15.90 | +1.70 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 14.22 | 14.66 | +2.32 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 18 | 12.41 | 17.07 | +0.84 |
| Offshore | 16 | 12.74 | 15.90 | +1.13 |
| Light | 15 | 14.79 | 18.10 | +1.94 |
| Onshore | 8 | 13.67 | 16.53 | +1.22 |
| Cross | 7 | 11.66 | 14.66 | −0.25 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 64 of his 68 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 64 of 68. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.