United StatesCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Jake
Marshall
- Trim
- −0.10per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 58at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0697% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 5820 events
- Heats won
- 26of 58
- Mean heat total
- 11.55over 58
- Best heat
- 18.33Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach
The swell · MarshallCT 2024 and 2025 · 58 rated heats
Scroll to ride 58 heats
The swell · four moments from 58 rated heats
- Heat 19 · SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe deepest trough.2.20 against an expected 10.72: a gap of −8.52, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 35 · MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025 · Round of 32The low tide.8.80 against an expected 11.74 (Supertubos, 4-6', onshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.494.
- Heat 39 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025 · Round of 32The highest crest.18.33 (4-6', calm) against an expected 11.74. A gap of +6.59.
- Heat 58 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Round of 16Where it ends.5.53 against 12.04, leaving his Trim at −0.102.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +6.59 at 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 14; worst −8.52 at 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 6. Axis to ±9, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 58 of this surfer's 58 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
58 heats across 20 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Pipeline | 2nd | 14.47 | 7.87 + 6.60 | +3.75exp 10.72 | 0.1690.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 3 | 1st | 13.77 | 7.50 + 6.27 | +2.03exp 11.74 | 0.2530.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 2 | 2nd | 6.43 | 4.50 + 1.93 | −5.61exp 12.04 | −0.0120.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 7.50 | 4.00 + 3.50 | −3.22exp 10.72 | −0.1570.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 15 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 15.50 | 9.17 + 6.33 | +3.76exp 11.74 | 0.0200.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 8 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 11.77 | 7.00 + 4.77 | −0.27exp 12.04 | 0.0070.758 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 1 · Supertubos | 3rd | 9.76 | 5.33 + 4.43 | −0.96exp 10.72 | −0.0370.724 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 1 · Molhe Leste | 2nd | 11.46 | 6.23 + 5.23 | −0.01exp 11.47 | −0.0360.691 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.50 | 6.67 + 5.83 | +0.76exp 11.74 | 0.0000.660 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 1 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.04 | 6.77 + 6.27 | +1.00exp 12.04 | 0.0450.630 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 9.00 | 5.00 + 4.00 | −4.05exp 13.05 | −0.1390.602 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 11 · Bells Beach | 1st | 13.26 | 6.93 + 6.33 | +2.54exp 10.72 | −0.0190.574 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 12 · Winki Pop | 1st | 12.73 | 6.40 + 6.33 | +0.99exp 11.74 | 0.0270.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 6 · Winki Pop | 1st | 14.17 | 7.67 + 6.50 | +2.13exp 12.04 | 0.1220.524 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 15 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 11.83 | 7.00 + 4.83 | −1.22exp 13.05 | 0.0610.500 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Main Break | 2nd | 11.53 | 6.53 + 5.00 | +0.81exp 10.72 | 0.0950.477 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 13 |
| 17 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Main Break | 1st | 11.84 | 6.67 + 5.17 | +0.10exp 11.74 | 0.0950.456 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 18 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Main Break | 2nd | 12.33 | 6.33 + 6.00 | +0.29exp 12.04 | 0.1040.435 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 19 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 2.20 | 1.20 + 1.00 | −8.52exp 10.72 | −0.2860.416 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 20 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 13.57 | 9.40 + 4.17 | +2.10exp 11.47 | −0.1780.397 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 21 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 15.23 | 8.90 + 6.33 | +3.19exp 12.04 | −0.0260.379 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 22 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.17 | 7.17 + 6.00 | +2.45exp 10.72 | 0.0860.362 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 23 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 10.93 | 5.83 + 5.10 | −1.11exp 12.04 | 0.0320.345 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 24 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Itaúna | 3rd | 7.73 | 4.80 + 2.93 | −2.99exp 10.72 | −0.1050.330 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 25 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Itaúna | 2nd | 9.23 | 5.33 + 3.90 | −2.24exp 11.47 | −0.2010.315 | 6-8' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 26 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 11.93 | 6.10 + 5.83 | +1.21exp 10.72 | −0.1380.301 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 27 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 12.60 | 6.93 + 5.67 | +0.56exp 12.04 | −0.1060.287 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Pipeline | 2nd | 6.80 | 3.93 + 2.87 | −3.92exp 10.72 | −0.2780.274 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 29 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Pipeline | 1st | 12.26 | 6.33 + 5.93 | +0.52exp 11.74 | −0.2430.262 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 30 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Pipeline | 1st | 13.20 | 6.83 + 6.37 | +1.16exp 12.04 | −0.1790.250 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 31 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Pipeline | 2nd | 14.00 | 7.30 + 6.70 | +0.95exp 13.05 | −0.1280.239 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 32 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 1 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 2nd | 9.83 | — | −1.34exp 11.17 | −0.1830.228 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 33 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 9 · Supertubos | 3rd | 7.63 | 4.33 + 3.30 | −3.09exp 10.72 | −0.3140.218 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 34 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 9.73 | 5.33 + 4.40 | −1.74exp 11.47 | −0.3790.208 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 35 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 4 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.80 | 4.67 + 4.13 | −2.94exp 11.74 | −0.4940.198 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 36 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Punta Roca | 1st | 12.16 | 6.83 + 5.33 | +1.44exp 10.72 | −0.4070.189 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 14 |
| 37 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 14 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.13 | 6.13 + 5.00 | −0.61exp 11.74 | −0.4160.181 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 38 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 9 · Bells Beach | 1st | 13.80 | 7.00 + 6.80 | +3.08exp 10.72 | −0.2590.173 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 14 |
| 39 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 14 | 1st | 18.33 | 9.33 + 9.00 | +6.59exp 11.74 | 0.0500.165 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 40 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 7 | 1st | 12.76 | 7.43 + 5.33 | +0.72exp 12.04 | 0.0810.157 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 41 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 4 | 2nd | 14.57 | 8.07 + 6.50 | +1.52exp 13.05 | 0.1460.150 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 42 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Burleigh | 1st | 13.50 | 7.50 + 6.00 | +2.78exp 10.72 | 0.2650.144 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 43 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 4 · Burleigh | 1st | 14.40 | 7.73 + 6.67 | +2.66exp 11.74 | 0.3730.137 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 44 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Burleigh | 2nd | 12.17 | 6.67 + 5.50 | +0.13exp 12.04 | 0.3620.131 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 45 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Main Break | 1st | 14.90 | 7.90 + 7.00 | +4.18exp 10.72 | 0.5340.125 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 46 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 7 · Main Break | 1st | 12.76 | 6.43 + 6.33 | +1.02exp 11.74 | 0.5560.119 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 47 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · The Box | 2nd | 5.73 | 3.33 + 2.40 | −6.31exp 12.04 | 0.2460.114 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 48 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 13.24 | 7.17 + 6.07 | +2.52exp 10.72 | 0.3480.109 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 49 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 12.70 | 6.60 + 6.10 | +0.66exp 12.04 | 0.3620.104 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 50 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Itaúna | 2nd | 9.97 | 5.40 + 4.57 | −0.75exp 10.72 | 0.3120.099 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 51 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Itaúna | 1st | 9.94 | 5.17 + 4.77 | −1.53exp 11.47 | 0.2290.095 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 4 |
| 52 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Itaúna | 1st | 13.00 | 7.33 + 5.67 | +0.96exp 12.04 | 0.2620.090 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 53 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Itaúna | 2nd | 13.26 | 6.83 + 6.43 | +0.21exp 13.05 | 0.2600.086 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 54 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 1 · Supertubes | 1st | 9.23 | 7.83 + 1.40 | −1.49exp 10.72 | 0.1810.082 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 55 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 8 · Supertubes | 2nd | 10.00 | 6.00 + 4.00 | −2.04exp 12.04 | 0.0800.079 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 56 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 11.66 | 5.93 + 5.73 | +0.94exp 10.72 | 0.1190.075 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 57 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 13.40 | 6.90 + 6.50 | +1.93exp 11.47 | 0.2010.072 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 58 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 5.53 | 4.53 + 1.00 | −6.51exp 12.04 | −0.1020.069 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 53 of these 58 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 11 | 11.70 | 14.40 | −0.03 |
| 4-6' | 29 | 11.58 | 18.33 | +0.06 |
| 6-8' | 8 | 10.03 | 13.40 | −1.50 |
| 8-10' | 7 | 12.56 | 15.23 | +1.06 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 13.64 | 15.50 | +1.74 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 17 | 11.24 | 18.33 | −0.31 |
| Offshore | 17 | 11.46 | 15.23 | +0.16 |
| Onshore | 9 | 11.96 | 14.57 | +0.18 |
| Cross | 7 | 11.54 | 15.50 | −0.29 |
| Light | 7 | 12.25 | 14.40 | +0.48 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 57 of his 58 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 57 of 58. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.