ANALYTICS

South AfricaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 2025

Jordy
Smith

Trim
0.17per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
Rated heats
69at or above 16
Prior weight
0.0414% of the rating
Heats surfed
6921 events
Heats won
41of 69
Mean heat total
12.31over 69
Best heat
17.33Western Australia Margaret River Pro

The swell · four moments from 69 rated heats

  1. Heat 5 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · QuarterfinalsThe low tide.4.33 against an expected 13.05 (6-8', light). His Trim bottoms out at −0.466.
  2. Heat 53 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.17.33 (Main Break, 6-8', light) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +5.29.
  3. Heat 69 · Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 2025 · Match 3Where it ends.13.50 against 13.16, leaving his Trim at 0.166.

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 020250.17heat 1heat 69Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 9 Scored 3.10 against an expected 10.72 (−7.62) Trim 0.000 → −0.344 · prior weight 0.955 3rd in the heatHeat 2 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Elimination Round heat 4 Scored 10.00 against an expected 11.47 (−1.47) Trim −0.344 → −0.395 · prior weight 0.912 2nd in the heatHeat 3 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 6 Scored 13.67 against an expected 11.74 (+1.93) Trim −0.395 → −0.290 · prior weight 0.871 1st in the heatHeat 4 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 3 Scored 16.50 against an expected 12.04 (+4.46) Trim −0.290 → −0.076 · prior weight 0.831 1st in the heatHeat 5 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Quarterfinals heat 2 Scored 4.33 against an expected 13.05 (−8.72) Trim −0.076 → −0.466 · prior weight 0.794 2nd in the heatHeat 6 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Opening Round heat 11 Scored 15.50 against an expected 10.72 (+4.78) Trim −0.466 → −0.229 · prior weight 0.758 1st in the heatHeat 7 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Round of 32 heat 7 Scored 12.16 against an expected 11.74 (+0.42) Trim −0.229 → −0.200 · prior weight 0.724 1st in the heatHeat 8 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Round of 16 heat 4 Scored 12.67 against an expected 12.04 (+0.63) Trim −0.200 → −0.162 · prior weight 0.691 1st in the heatHeat 9 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Quarterfinals heat 2 Scored 15.16 against an expected 13.05 (+2.11) Trim −0.162 → −0.060 · prior weight 0.660 1st in the heatHeat 10 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Semifinals heat 1 Scored 12.50 against an expected 13.75 (−1.25) Trim −0.060 → −0.113 · prior weight 0.630 2nd in the heatHeat 11 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 7 Scored 13.67 against an expected 10.72 (+2.95) Trim −0.113 → 0.025 · prior weight 0.602 1st in the heatHeat 12 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 32 heat 3 Scored 11.76 against an expected 11.74 (+0.02) Trim 0.025 → 0.024 · prior weight 0.574 2nd in the heatHeat 13 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 7 Scored 15.84 against an expected 10.72 (+5.12) Trim 0.024 → 0.254 · prior weight 0.548 1st in the heatHeat 14 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 16 Scored 11.73 against an expected 11.74 (−0.01) Trim 0.254 → 0.242 · prior weight 0.524 2nd in the heatHeat 15 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 10 Scored 15.23 against an expected 10.72 (+4.51) Trim 0.242 → 0.435 · prior weight 0.500 2nd in the heatHeat 16 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 11 Scored 13.77 against an expected 11.74 (+2.03) Trim 0.435 → 0.507 · prior weight 0.477 1st in the heatHeat 17 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 6 Scored 14.27 against an expected 12.04 (+2.23) Trim 0.507 → 0.585 · prior weight 0.456 1st in the heatHeat 18 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Quarterfinals heat 3 Scored 15.17 against an expected 13.05 (+2.12) Trim 0.585 → 0.654 · prior weight 0.435 2nd in the heatHeat 19 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 5 Scored 12.77 against an expected 10.72 (+2.05) Trim 0.654 → 0.717 · prior weight 0.416 1st in the heatHeat 20 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Round of 16 heat 3 Scored 8.17 against an expected 12.04 (−3.87) Trim 0.717 → 0.510 · prior weight 0.397 2nd in the heatHeat 21 — 2024 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 10.60 against an expected 10.72 (−0.12) Trim 0.510 → 0.481 · prior weight 0.379 1st in the heatHeat 22 — 2024 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 16 heat 8 Scored 12.74 against an expected 12.04 (+0.70) Trim 0.481 → 0.491 · prior weight 0.362 1st in the heatHeat 23 — 2024 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Quarterfinals heat 4 Scored 13.70 against an expected 13.05 (+0.65) Trim 0.491 → 0.498 · prior weight 0.345 2nd in the heatHeat 24 — 2024 VIVO Rio Pro · Opening Round heat 5 Scored 10.40 against an expected 10.72 (−0.32) Trim 0.498 → 0.461 · prior weight 0.330 1st in the heatHeat 25 — 2024 VIVO Rio Pro · Round of 16 heat 8 Scored 12.10 against an expected 12.04 (+0.06) Trim 0.461 → 0.443 · prior weight 0.315 1st in the heatHeat 26 — 2024 VIVO Rio Pro · Quarterfinals heat 4 Scored 10.00 against an expected 13.05 (−3.05) Trim 0.443 → 0.286 · prior weight 0.301 1st in the heatHeat 27 — 2024 VIVO Rio Pro · Semifinals heat 2 Scored 14.23 against an expected 13.75 (+0.48) Trim 0.286 → 0.294 · prior weight 0.287 2nd in the heatHeat 28 — 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Opening Round heat 7 Scored 12.13 against an expected 10.72 (+1.41) Trim 0.294 → 0.345 · prior weight 0.274 2nd in the heatHeat 29 — 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Elimination Round heat 5 Scored 10.00 against an expected 11.47 (−1.47) Trim 0.345 → 0.263 · prior weight 0.262 2nd in the heatHeat 30 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 7 Scored 11.00 against an expected 10.72 (+0.28) Trim 0.263 → 0.263 · prior weight 0.250 1st in the heatHeat 31 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 16 Scored 9.77 against an expected 11.74 (−1.97) Trim 0.263 → 0.162 · prior weight 0.239 2nd in the heatHeat 32 — 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Qualifying Round heat 8 Scored 11.77 against an expected 11.17 (+0.60) Trim 0.162 → 0.182 · prior weight 0.228 1st in the heatHeat 33 — 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Round of 16 heat 2 Scored 11.50 against an expected 12.04 (−0.54) Trim 0.182 → 0.149 · prior weight 0.218 2nd in the heatHeat 34 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 8 Scored 7.37 against an expected 10.72 (−3.35) Trim 0.149 → −0.009 · prior weight 0.208 2nd in the heatHeat 35 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 32 heat 8 Scored 11.33 against an expected 11.74 (−0.41) Trim −0.009 → −0.027 · prior weight 0.198 1st in the heatHeat 36 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 16 heat 4 Scored 8.47 against an expected 12.04 (−3.57) Trim −0.027 → −0.187 · prior weight 0.189 2nd in the heatHeat 37 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 11 Scored 12.87 against an expected 10.72 (+2.15) Trim −0.187 → −0.082 · prior weight 0.181 1st in the heatHeat 38 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 32 heat 11 Scored 12.50 against an expected 11.74 (+0.76) Trim −0.082 → −0.044 · prior weight 0.173 1st in the heatHeat 39 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 16 heat 6 Scored 14.93 against an expected 12.04 (+2.89) Trim −0.044 → 0.089 · prior weight 0.165 1st in the heatHeat 40 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Quarterfinals heat 3 Scored 13.90 against an expected 13.05 (+0.85) Trim 0.089 → 0.123 · prior weight 0.157 1st in the heatHeat 41 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Semifinals heat 2 Scored 15.67 against an expected 13.75 (+1.92) Trim 0.123 → 0.204 · prior weight 0.150 1st in the heatHeat 42 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Final heat 1 Scored 14.26 against an expected 14.49 (−0.23) Trim 0.204 → 0.185 · prior weight 0.144 1st in the heatHeat 43 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 12.54 against an expected 10.72 (+1.82) Trim 0.185 → 0.259 · prior weight 0.137 1st in the heatHeat 44 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 5 Scored 13.93 against an expected 11.74 (+2.19) Trim 0.259 → 0.346 · prior weight 0.131 1st in the heatHeat 45 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 16 heat 3 Scored 15.50 against an expected 12.04 (+3.46) Trim 0.346 → 0.486 · prior weight 0.125 1st in the heatHeat 46 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Quarterfinals heat 2 Scored 13.80 against an expected 13.05 (+0.75) Trim 0.486 → 0.498 · prior weight 0.119 2nd in the heatHeat 47 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Opening Round heat 2 Scored 11.40 against an expected 10.72 (+0.68) Trim 0.498 → 0.506 · prior weight 0.114 1st in the heatHeat 48 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Round of 32 heat 13 Scored 13.16 against an expected 11.74 (+1.42) Trim 0.506 → 0.548 · prior weight 0.109 1st in the heatHeat 49 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Round of 16 heat 7 Scored 17.27 against an expected 12.04 (+5.23) Trim 0.548 → 0.759 · prior weight 0.104 1st in the heatHeat 50 — 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Quarterfinals heat 4 Scored 13.84 against an expected 13.05 (+0.79) Trim 0.759 → 0.761 · prior weight 0.099 2nd in the heatHeat 51 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 12.87 against an expected 10.72 (+2.15) Trim 0.761 → 0.823 · prior weight 0.095 2nd in the heatHeat 52 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 13 Scored 12.50 against an expected 11.74 (+0.76) Trim 0.823 → 0.820 · prior weight 0.090 1st in the heatHeat 53 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 7 Scored 17.33 against an expected 12.04 (+5.29) Trim 0.820 → 1.022 · prior weight 0.086 1st in the heatHeat 54 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Quarterfinals heat 4 Scored 14.50 against an expected 13.05 (+1.45) Trim 1.022 → 1.041 · prior weight 0.082 1st in the heatHeat 55 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Semifinals heat 2 Scored 14.67 against an expected 13.75 (+0.92) Trim 1.041 → 1.036 · prior weight 0.079 1st in the heatHeat 56 — 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Final heat 1 Scored 12.00 against an expected 14.49 (−2.49) Trim 1.036 → 0.877 · prior weight 0.075 1st in the heatHeat 57 — 2025 Lexus Trestles Pro · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 11.86 against an expected 10.72 (+1.14) Trim 0.877 → 0.889 · prior weight 0.072 1st in the heatHeat 58 — 2025 Lexus Trestles Pro · Round of 16 heat 5 Scored 14.23 against an expected 12.04 (+2.19) Trim 0.889 → 0.947 · prior weight 0.069 2nd in the heatHeat 59 — 2025 VIVO Rio Pro · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 9.43 against an expected 10.72 (−1.29) Trim 0.947 → 0.846 · prior weight 0.065 3rd in the heatHeat 60 — 2025 VIVO Rio Pro · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 11.33 against an expected 11.47 (−0.14) Trim 0.846 → 0.802 · prior weight 0.063 1st in the heatHeat 61 — 2025 VIVO Rio Pro · Round of 16 heat 5 Scored 10.83 against an expected 12.04 (−1.21) Trim 0.802 → 0.711 · prior weight 0.060 1st in the heatHeat 62 — 2025 VIVO Rio Pro · Quarterfinals heat 3 Scored 9.80 against an expected 13.05 (−3.25) Trim 0.711 → 0.532 · prior weight 0.057 2nd in the heatHeat 63 — 2025 Corona Cero Open J-Bay · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 12.00 against an expected 10.72 (+1.28) Trim 0.532 → 0.566 · prior weight 0.054 2nd in the heatHeat 64 — 2025 Corona Cero Open J-Bay · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 16.43 against an expected 11.47 (+4.96) Trim 0.566 → 0.764 · prior weight 0.052 1st in the heatHeat 65 — 2025 Corona Cero Open J-Bay · Round of 16 heat 5 Scored 11.17 against an expected 12.04 (−0.87) Trim 0.764 → 0.690 · prior weight 0.050 2nd in the heatHeat 66 — 2025 Lexus Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 4.76 against an expected 10.72 (−5.96) Trim 0.690 → 0.390 · prior weight 0.047 2nd in the heatHeat 67 — 2025 Lexus Tahiti Pro · Elimination Round heat 1 Scored 16.00 against an expected 11.47 (+4.53) Trim 0.390 → 0.577 · prior weight 0.045 1st in the heatHeat 68 — 2025 Lexus Tahiti Pro · Round of 16 heat 1 Scored 3.33 against an expected 12.04 (−8.71) Trim 0.577 → 0.158 · prior weight 0.043 2nd in the heatHeat 69 — 2025 Lexus WSL Finals Fiji · Match 3 Scored 13.50 against an expected 13.16 (+0.34) Trim 0.158 → 0.166 · prior weight 0.041 2nd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +5.29 at 2025 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 7; worst −8.72 at 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Quarterfinals heat 2. Axis to ±9, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 69 of this surfer's 69 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

69 heats across 21 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Pipeline3rd3.102.17 + 0.93−7.62exp 10.72−0.3440.9558-10' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 4
22024 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 42nd10.005.17 + 4.83−1.47exp 11.47−0.3950.9128-10' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 6
32024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 61st13.677.00 + 6.67+1.93exp 11.74−0.2900.8718-10' · Calm—
42024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 31st16.508.50 + 8.00+4.46exp 12.04−0.0760.8318-10' · Calm—
52024 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 22nd4.332.83 + 1.50−8.72exp 13.05−0.4660.7946-8' · Light—
62024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 11 · Sunset Beach1st15.509.33 + 6.17+4.78exp 10.72−0.2290.7586-8' · CrossAdv to R/32 - HT 7
72024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 7 · Sunset Beach1st12.167.33 + 4.83+0.42exp 11.74−0.2000.72410-14' · Cross—
82024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 4 · Sunset Beach1st12.677.17 + 5.50+0.63exp 12.04−0.1620.69110-14' · Cross—
92024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Sunset Beach1st15.168.33 + 6.83+2.11exp 13.05−0.0600.6604-6' · Light—
102024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachSemifinals · heat 1 · Sunset Beach2nd12.506.67 + 5.83−1.25exp 13.75−0.1130.6306-8' · Light—
112024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 7 · Supertubos1st13.677.67 + 6.00+2.95exp 10.720.0250.6024-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 3
122024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 3 · Supertubos2nd11.766.33 + 5.43+0.02exp 11.740.0240.5744-6' · Cross—
132024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 7 · Bells Beach1st15.848.17 + 7.67+5.12exp 10.720.2540.5484-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 16
142024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 16 · Winki Pop2nd11.736.90 + 4.83−0.01exp 11.740.2420.5241-4' · Onshore—
152024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Main Break2nd15.238.90 + 6.33+4.51exp 10.720.4350.5001-4' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 11
162024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 11 · Main Break1st13.777.00 + 6.77+2.03exp 11.740.5070.4771-4' · Onshore—
172024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Main Break1st14.277.27 + 7.00+2.23exp 12.040.5850.4566-8' · Offshore—
182024 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Main Break2nd15.178.00 + 7.17+2.12exp 13.050.6540.4356-8' · Offshore—
192024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o1st12.777.17 + 5.60+2.05exp 10.720.7170.4164-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/16 - HT 3
202024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Teahupo'o2nd8.176.00 + 2.17−3.87exp 12.040.5100.3978-10' · Calm—
212024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Punta Roca1st10.605.67 + 4.93−0.12exp 10.720.4810.3794-6' · LightAdv to R/16 - HT 8
222024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Punta Roca1st12.746.67 + 6.07+0.70exp 12.040.4910.3624-6' · Light—
232024 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Punta Roca2nd13.706.87 + 6.83+0.65exp 13.050.4980.3454-6' · Light—
242024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Itaúna1st10.405.43 + 4.97−0.32exp 10.720.4610.3304-6' · CalmAdv to R/16 - HT 8
252024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Itaúna1st12.106.60 + 5.50+0.06exp 12.040.4430.3156-8' · Onshore—
262024 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Itaúna1st10.006.17 + 3.83−3.05exp 13.050.2860.3016-8' · Offshore—
272024 VIVO Rio ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Itaúna2nd14.238.40 + 5.83+0.48exp 13.750.2940.2876-8' · Offshore—
282024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Cloudbreak2nd12.136.50 + 5.63+1.41exp 10.720.3450.2744-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 5
292024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Cloudbreak2nd10.005.17 + 4.83−1.47exp 11.470.2630.2624-6' · OffshoreEliminated
302025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Pipeline1st11.006.50 + 4.50+0.28exp 10.720.2630.2506-8' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 16
312025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 16 · Pipeline2nd9.778.00 + 1.77−1.97exp 11.740.1620.2396-8' · Calm—
322025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 8 · Surf Abu Dhabi1st11.77—+0.60exp 11.170.1820.228not publishedAdv to R16 - HT 2
332025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 22nd11.50—−0.54exp 12.040.1490.218not publishedEliminated
342025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 8 · Supertubos2nd7.374.20 + 3.17−3.35exp 10.72−0.0090.2084-6' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 8
352025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 8 · Supertubos1st11.336.50 + 4.83−0.41exp 11.74−0.0270.1984-6' · Onshore—
362025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 4 · Supertubos2nd8.474.67 + 3.80−3.57exp 12.04−0.1870.1894-6' · Cross—
372025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Punta Roca1st12.876.47 + 6.40+2.15exp 10.72−0.0820.1814-6' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 11
382025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 11 · Punta Roca1st12.506.83 + 5.67+0.76exp 11.74−0.0440.1734-6' · Calm—
392025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Punta Roca1st14.938.50 + 6.43+2.89exp 12.040.0890.1656-8' · Offshore—
402025 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Punta Roca1st13.908.67 + 5.23+0.85exp 13.050.1230.1574-6' · Calm—
412025 Surf City El Salvador ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Punta Roca1st15.678.17 + 7.50+1.92exp 13.750.2040.1506-8' · Light—
422025 Surf City El Salvador ProFinal · heat 1 · Punta Roca1st14.267.33 + 6.93−0.23exp 14.490.1850.1446-8' · Light—
432025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach1st12.546.87 + 5.67+1.82exp 10.720.2590.1374-6' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 5
442025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 51st13.937.50 + 6.43+2.19exp 11.740.3460.1311-4' · Calm—
452025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 31st15.508.33 + 7.17+3.46exp 12.040.4860.1256-8' · Offshore—
462025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 22nd13.807.40 + 6.40+0.75exp 13.050.4980.1196-8' · Onshore—
472025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Burleigh1st11.406.17 + 5.23+0.68exp 10.720.5060.1141-4' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 13
482025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Burleigh1st13.166.83 + 6.33+1.42exp 11.740.5480.1094-6' · Light—
492025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Burleigh1st17.279.17 + 8.10+5.23exp 12.040.7590.1044-6' · Light—
502025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Burleigh2nd13.848.17 + 5.67+0.79exp 13.050.7610.0991-4' · Light—
512025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Main Break2nd12.876.50 + 6.37+2.15exp 10.720.8230.0954-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 13
522025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 13 · Main Break1st12.506.67 + 5.83+0.76exp 11.740.8200.0908-10' · Offshore—
532025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Main Break1st17.339.50 + 7.83+5.29exp 12.041.0220.0866-8' · Light—
542025 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Main Break1st14.508.17 + 6.33+1.45exp 13.051.0410.0824-6' · Offshore—
552025 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Main Break1st14.678.50 + 6.17+0.92exp 13.751.0360.0791-4' · Offshore—
562025 Western Australia Margaret River ProFinal · heat 1 · Main Break1st12.008.50 + 3.50−2.49exp 14.490.8770.0751-4' · Offshore—
572025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Lower Trestles1st11.866.53 + 5.33+1.14exp 10.720.8890.0724-6' · LightAdv to R/16 - HT 5
582025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Lower Trestles2nd14.238.00 + 6.23+2.19exp 12.040.9470.0694-6' · Calm—
592025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Itaúna3rd9.435.33 + 4.10−1.29exp 10.720.8460.0651-4' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 1
602025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Itaúna1st11.336.33 + 5.00−0.14exp 11.470.8020.0636-8' · OffshoreAdv to R/16 - HT 5
612025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Itaúna1st10.836.00 + 4.83−1.21exp 12.040.7110.0604-6' · Offshore—
622025 VIVO Rio ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Itaúna2nd9.805.63 + 4.17−3.25exp 13.050.5320.0574-6' · Offshore—
632025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 4 · Supertubes2nd12.006.67 + 5.33+1.28exp 10.720.5660.0544-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 1
642025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 1 · Supertubes1st16.439.43 + 7.00+4.96exp 11.470.7640.0524-6' · OnshoreAdv to R/16 - HT 5
652025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 5 · Supertubes2nd11.176.67 + 4.50−0.87exp 12.040.6900.0501-4' · Light—
662025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Teahupo'o2nd4.762.93 + 1.83−5.96exp 10.720.3900.0478-10' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 1
672025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Teahupo'o1st16.009.50 + 6.50+4.53exp 11.470.5770.0458-10' · CalmAdv to R/16 - HT 1
682025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Teahupo'o2nd3.332.83 + 0.50−8.71exp 12.040.1580.0436-8' · Calm—
692025 Lexus WSL Finals Fiji FinalsMatch 3 · Cloudbreak2nd13.508.67 + 4.83+0.34exp 13.160.1660.0414-6' · Calm—
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 61 of these 69 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'1012.7215.23+0.64
4-6'2912.5617.27+0.93
6-8'1812.5017.33+0.01
8-10'810.5916.50−0.91
10-14'212.4212.67+0.52

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Offshore2112.8815.84+0.87
Calm1910.7616.50−0.78
Light1413.1117.33+0.58
Onshore813.3716.43+1.71
Cross512.1115.50+0.45

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 67 of his 69 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 67 of 69. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.