JapanCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Kanoa
Igarashi
- Trim
- 0.40per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 64at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0525% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 6420 events
- Heats won
- 34of 64
- Mean heat total
- 12.31over 64
- Best heat
- 17.17Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro
The swell · IgarashiCT 2024 and 2025 · 64 rated heats
Scroll to ride 64 heats
The swell · four moments from 64 rated heats
- Heat 5 · Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024 · Round of 16The low tide.8.43 against an expected 12.04 (Sunset Beach, 10-14', cross). His Trim bottoms out at −0.446.
- Heat 19 · SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Round of 16The deepest trough.0.93 against an expected 12.04: a gap of −11.11, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 45 · Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 2025 · Round of 16The highest crest.17.17 (Burleigh, 4-6', light) against an expected 12.04. A gap of +5.13.
- Heat 64 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.2.80 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at 0.402.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.13 at 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Round of 16 heat 8; worst −11.11 at 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Round of 16 heat 2. Axis to ±12, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 64 of this surfer's 64 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
64 heats across 20 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Pipeline | 2nd | 7.50 | 5.17 + 2.33 | −3.22exp 10.72 | −0.1460.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 10 | 2nd | 5.40 | 5.17 + 0.23 | −6.34exp 11.74 | −0.4250.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 7 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 11.00 | 7.33 + 3.67 | +0.28exp 10.72 | −0.3940.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 13.50 | 7.83 + 5.67 | +1.76exp 11.74 | −0.2970.831 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 8.43 | 5.33 + 3.10 | −3.61exp 12.04 | −0.4460.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 14.67 | 8.00 + 6.67 | +1.62exp 13.05 | −0.3530.758 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachSemifinals · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 14.83 | 7.83 + 7.00 | +1.08exp 13.75 | −0.2880.724 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 8 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachFinal · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 15.16 | 7.83 + 7.33 | +0.67exp 14.49 | −0.2450.691 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 8 · Supertubos | 3rd | 11.50 | 6.17 + 5.33 | +0.78exp 10.72 | −0.1990.660 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 2 · Molhe Leste | 1st | 14.76 | 7.93 + 6.83 | +3.29exp 11.47 | −0.0410.630 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 12 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.00 | 6.77 + 6.23 | +1.26exp 11.74 | 0.0180.602 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 6 · Supertubos | 2nd | 12.00 | 6.43 + 5.57 | −0.04exp 12.04 | 0.0150.574 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 10.50 | 5.67 + 4.83 | −0.22exp 10.72 | 0.0040.548 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 8 · Winki Pop | 1st | 14.64 | 7.47 + 7.17 | +2.90exp 11.74 | 0.1350.524 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 15 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 4 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 13.73 | 7.33 + 6.40 | +1.69exp 12.04 | 0.2050.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Main Break | 2nd | 15.07 | 7.57 + 7.50 | +4.35exp 10.72 | 0.3920.477 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 17 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 3 · Main Break | 2nd | 13.77 | 7.10 + 6.67 | +2.03exp 11.74 | 0.4660.456 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 13.10 | 8.17 + 4.93 | +2.38exp 10.72 | 0.5520.435 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 19 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 0.93 | 0.50 + 0.43 | −11.11exp 12.04 | 0.0260.416 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.04 | 7.17 + 5.87 | +2.32exp 10.72 | 0.1290.397 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 21 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.93 | 7.10 + 6.83 | +2.46exp 11.47 | 0.2340.379 | 4-6' · Light | Eliminated |
| 22 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.30 | 5.67 + 5.63 | +0.58exp 10.72 | 0.2500.362 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 23 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Itaúna | 2nd | 12.80 | 6.63 + 6.17 | +1.33exp 11.47 | 0.2990.345 | 6-8' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 24 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Cloudbreak | 3rd | 6.80 | 3.63 + 3.17 | −3.92exp 10.72 | 0.1080.330 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 25 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 10.34 | 5.17 + 5.17 | −1.13exp 11.47 | 0.0520.315 | 4-6' · Cross | Eliminated |
| 26 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Pipeline | 1st | 10.06 | 6.33 + 3.73 | −0.66exp 10.72 | 0.0200.301 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 14 |
| 27 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 14 · Pipeline | 1st | 14.34 | 7.67 + 6.67 | +2.60exp 11.74 | 0.1360.287 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Pipeline | 2nd | 13.83 | 7.33 + 6.50 | +1.79exp 12.04 | 0.2110.274 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 29 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 11 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 13.87 | — | +2.70exp 11.17 | 0.3230.262 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 6 |
| 30 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 6 | 1st | 15.77 | — | +3.73exp 12.04 | 0.4770.250 | not published | Adv to QF - HT 3 |
| 31 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 | 2nd | 13.30 | — | +0.25exp 13.05 | 0.4670.239 | not published | Eliminated |
| 32 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 11 · Supertubos | 1st | 13.34 | 7.17 + 6.17 | +2.62exp 10.72 | 0.5640.228 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 33 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 12 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.90 | 6.83 + 5.07 | +0.16exp 11.74 | 0.5460.218 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 34 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 6 · Supertubos | 2nd | 7.36 | 3.73 + 3.63 | −4.68exp 12.04 | 0.3100.208 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 35 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.60 | 6.93 + 6.67 | +2.88exp 10.72 | 0.4260.198 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 7 |
| 36 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 6.83 | 6.83 + 0.00 | −4.91exp 11.74 | 0.1850.189 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 37 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 11 · Bells Beach | 1st | 13.37 | 6.87 + 6.50 | +2.65exp 10.72 | 0.2960.181 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 38 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 3 | 1st | 16.10 | 8.50 + 7.60 | +4.36exp 11.74 | 0.4790.173 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 39 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 2 | 1st | 13.60 | 7.07 + 6.53 | +1.56exp 12.04 | 0.5280.165 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 40 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 1 | 1st | 15.40 | 7.90 + 7.50 | +2.35exp 13.05 | 0.6100.157 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 41 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachSemifinals · heat 1 | 1st | 10.27 | 6.00 + 4.27 | −3.48exp 13.75 | 0.4260.150 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 42 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachFinal · heat 1 | 2nd | 13.87 | 7.17 + 6.70 | −0.62exp 14.49 | 0.3790.144 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 43 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Burleigh | 1st | 13.83 | 7.00 + 6.83 | +3.11exp 10.72 | 0.5020.137 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 44 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 16 · Burleigh | 1st | 12.86 | 6.53 + 6.33 | +1.12exp 11.74 | 0.5300.131 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 45 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Burleigh | 1st | 17.17 | 8.67 + 8.50 | +5.13exp 12.04 | 0.7370.125 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 46 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Burleigh | 1st | 14.34 | 7.67 + 6.67 | +1.29exp 13.05 | 0.7620.119 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 47 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Burleigh | 2nd | 14.90 | 7.50 + 7.40 | +1.15exp 13.75 | 0.7800.114 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 48 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Main Break | 1st | 14.26 | 7.43 + 6.83 | +3.54exp 10.72 | 0.9040.109 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 5 |
| 49 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 5 · Main Break | 1st | 13.16 | 7.33 + 5.83 | +1.42exp 11.74 | 0.9280.104 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 50 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · The Box | 2nd | 2.50 | 1.50 + 1.00 | −9.54exp 12.04 | 0.4550.099 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 51 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 13.20 | 7.50 + 5.70 | +2.48exp 10.72 | 0.5460.095 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 52 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 13.73 | 7.00 + 6.73 | +2.26exp 11.47 | 0.6240.090 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 53 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 15.93 | 8.93 + 7.00 | +3.89exp 12.04 | 0.7710.086 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 54 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 | 1st | 15.16 | 7.83 + 7.33 | +2.11exp 13.05 | 0.8320.082 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 55 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProSemifinals · heat 2 | 1st | 17.10 | 8.77 + 8.33 | +3.35exp 13.75 | 0.9450.079 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 56 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProFinal · heat 1 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 16.07 | 8.30 + 7.77 | +1.58exp 14.49 | 0.9740.075 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 57 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 2nd | 6.34 | 4.67 + 1.67 | −4.38exp 10.72 | 0.7320.072 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 58 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Itaúna | 1st | 11.73 | 6.23 + 5.50 | +0.26exp 11.47 | 0.7110.069 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 59 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Itaúna | 2nd | 8.50 | 5.00 + 3.50 | −3.54exp 12.04 | 0.5190.065 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 60 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 2 · Supertubes | 1st | 13.83 | 7.33 + 6.50 | +3.11exp 10.72 | 0.6360.063 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 61 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 3 · Supertubes | 1st | 13.50 | 7.17 + 6.33 | +1.46exp 12.04 | 0.6730.060 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 62 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Supertubes | 2nd | 14.13 | 7.83 + 6.30 | +1.08exp 13.05 | 0.6920.057 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 63 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 14.50 | 7.77 + 6.73 | +3.78exp 10.72 | 0.8310.054 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 64 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 2.80 | 2.00 + 0.80 | −8.67exp 11.47 | 0.4020.052 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 54 of these 64 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 9 | 13.61 | 16.10 | +1.77 |
| 4-6' | 34 | 12.39 | 17.17 | +0.64 |
| 6-8' | 10 | 13.52 | 15.40 | +1.21 |
| 8-10' | 6 | 7.38 | 14.50 | −4.03 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 10.97 | 13.50 | −0.93 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 17 | 10.59 | 15.07 | −0.79 |
| Light | 15 | 14.63 | 17.17 | +2.12 |
| Calm | 13 | 11.47 | 16.10 | +0.23 |
| Cross | 9 | 11.70 | 14.90 | −0.19 |
| Onshore | 7 | 13.05 | 15.40 | +0.58 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 61 of his 64 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 61 of 64. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.