ItalyCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Leonardo
Fioravanti
- Trim
- 1.01per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 55at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0798% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 5520 events
- Heats won
- 25of 55
- Mean heat total
- 12.51over 55
- Best heat
- 17.97Lexus Pipe Pro
The swell · FioravantiCT 2024 and 2025 · 55 rated heats
Scroll to ride 55 heats
The swell · four moments from 55 rated heats
- Heat 1 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe low tide.6.60 against an expected 10.72 (Pipeline, 8-10', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.186.
- Heat 13 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.16.57 (Main Break, 1-4', onshore) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +5.85.
- Heat 15 · SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe deepest trough.5.14 against an expected 10.72: a gap of −5.58, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 55 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Round of 16Where it ends.9.20 against 12.04, leaving his Trim at 1.014.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.85 at 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 12; worst −5.58 at 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 8. Axis to ±6, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 55 of this surfer's 55 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
55 heats across 20 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Pipeline | 1st | 6.60 | 4.67 + 1.93 | −4.12exp 10.72 | −0.1860.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 16 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 16 | 1st | 16.00 | 8.07 + 7.93 | +4.26exp 11.74 | 0.0140.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 8 | 1st | 11.90 | 7.33 + 4.57 | −0.14exp 12.04 | 0.0070.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 | 2nd | 10.33 | 7.33 + 3.00 | −2.72exp 13.05 | −0.1160.831 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 8 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 10.50 | 5.83 + 4.67 | −0.22exp 10.72 | −0.1200.794 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 3 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 13.33 | 7.50 + 5.83 | +1.59exp 11.74 | −0.0430.758 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 10 · Supertubos | 2nd | 11.80 | 6.63 + 5.17 | +1.08exp 10.72 | 0.0070.724 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 11 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.40 | 6.50 + 5.90 | +0.66exp 11.74 | 0.0370.691 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 6 · Supertubos | 1st | 15.33 | 9.00 + 6.33 | +3.29exp 12.04 | 0.1840.660 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Supertubos | 2nd | 14.13 | 7.30 + 6.83 | +1.08exp 13.05 | 0.2240.630 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 11 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 8 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.00 | 6.73 + 5.27 | +1.28exp 10.72 | 0.2720.602 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 3 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 9.70 | 5.83 + 3.87 | −2.04exp 11.74 | 0.1670.574 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 13 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Main Break | 1st | 16.57 | 8.57 + 8.00 | +5.85exp 10.72 | 0.4240.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 4 · Main Break | 2nd | 11.50 | 7.00 + 4.50 | −0.24exp 11.74 | 0.3940.524 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 15 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 5.14 | 3.97 + 1.17 | −5.58exp 10.72 | 0.1240.500 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 16 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 13.50 | 7.60 + 5.90 | +2.03exp 11.47 | 0.2100.477 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 17 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 13.37 | 7.20 + 6.17 | +2.65exp 10.72 | 0.3200.456 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 18 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.00 | 6.67 + 6.33 | +1.53exp 11.47 | 0.3750.435 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 19 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.36 | 6.43 + 2.93 | −2.68exp 12.04 | 0.2370.416 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 20 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Itaúna | 3rd | 6.87 | 5.17 + 1.70 | −3.85exp 10.72 | 0.0520.397 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 21 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.07 | 7.57 + 3.50 | −0.40exp 11.47 | 0.0320.379 | 4-6' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 22 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 8.56 | 5.83 + 2.73 | −2.16exp 10.72 | −0.0670.362 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 23 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 13.93 | 8.33 + 5.60 | +2.46exp 11.47 | 0.0470.345 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 24 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Pipeline | 2nd | 12.30 | 6.17 + 6.13 | +1.58exp 10.72 | 0.1160.330 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 25 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 15 · Pipeline | 1st | 14.10 | 8.60 + 5.50 | +2.36exp 11.74 | 0.2170.315 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 26 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Pipeline | 1st | 13.50 | 7.17 + 6.33 | +1.46exp 12.04 | 0.2730.301 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 27 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Pipeline | 1st | 15.67 | 8.17 + 7.50 | +2.62exp 13.05 | 0.3790.287 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Pipeline | 1st | 16.57 | 8.40 + 8.17 | +2.82exp 13.75 | 0.4890.274 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 29 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProFinal · heat 1 · Pipeline | 2nd | 17.97 | 9.10 + 8.87 | +3.48exp 14.49 | 0.6250.262 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 30 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 11 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 2nd | 13.66 | — | +2.49exp 11.17 | 0.7090.250 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 31 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 12 · Supertubos | 2nd | 9.60 | 5.17 + 4.43 | −1.12exp 10.72 | 0.6260.239 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 32 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 15 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.07 | 6.10 + 5.97 | +0.33exp 11.74 | 0.6130.228 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 33 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 8 · Supertubos | 2nd | 11.23 | 7.00 + 4.23 | −0.81exp 12.04 | 0.5480.218 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 34 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Punta Roca | 1st | 12.50 | 8.33 + 4.17 | +1.78exp 10.72 | 0.6040.208 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 35 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Punta Roca | 1st | 15.97 | 8.30 + 7.67 | +4.23exp 11.74 | 0.7670.198 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 36 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 14.33 | 7.33 + 7.00 | +2.29exp 12.04 | 0.8360.189 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 37 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 8 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 9.16 | 5.33 + 3.83 | −1.56exp 10.72 | 0.7280.181 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 38 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 8 | 1st | 14.70 | 7.77 + 6.93 | +2.96exp 11.74 | 0.8280.173 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 39 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 4 | 2nd | 12.60 | 7.10 + 5.50 | +0.56exp 12.04 | 0.8160.165 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 40 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Burleigh | 2nd | 11.23 | 5.83 + 5.40 | +0.51exp 10.72 | 0.8020.157 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 41 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Burleigh | 2nd | 11.27 | 6.27 + 5.00 | −0.47exp 11.74 | 0.7450.150 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 42 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Main Break | 1st | 13.07 | 8.00 + 5.07 | +2.35exp 10.72 | 0.8170.144 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 43 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 3 · Main Break | 1st | 17.13 | 9.00 + 8.13 | +5.39exp 11.74 | 1.0240.137 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 44 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · The Box | 1st | 12.16 | 6.83 + 5.33 | +0.12exp 12.04 | 0.9830.131 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 45 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Main Break | 2nd | 15.73 | 9.00 + 6.73 | +2.68exp 13.05 | 1.0600.125 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 46 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Lower Trestles | 3rd | 6.87 | 4.87 + 2.00 | −3.85exp 10.72 | 0.8380.119 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 47 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Lower Trestles | 1st | 12.57 | 6.57 + 6.00 | +1.10exp 11.47 | 0.8500.114 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 48 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 14.00 | 8.50 + 5.50 | +1.96exp 12.04 | 0.9000.109 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 49 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 1st | 13.84 | 7.17 + 6.67 | +3.12exp 10.72 | 1.0000.104 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 50 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Itaúna | 2nd | 12.80 | 7.13 + 5.67 | +0.76exp 12.04 | 0.9890.099 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 51 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 6 · Supertubes | 1st | 16.13 | 8.13 + 8.00 | +5.41exp 10.72 | 1.1880.095 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 52 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayRound of 16 · heat 2 · Supertubes | 1st | 13.34 | 7.67 + 5.67 | +1.30exp 12.04 | 1.1930.090 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 53 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Supertubes | 2nd | 12.83 | 7.00 + 5.83 | −0.22exp 13.05 | 1.1300.086 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 54 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 13.33 | 6.83 + 6.50 | +2.61exp 10.72 | 1.1970.082 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 55 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 9.20 | 5.33 + 3.87 | −2.84exp 12.04 | 1.0140.079 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 50 of these 55 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 6 | 13.36 | 16.57 | +1.91 |
| 4-6' | 31 | 12.17 | 17.97 | +0.60 |
| 6-8' | 10 | 12.54 | 15.73 | +0.49 |
| 8-10' | 6 | 13.08 | 17.13 | +1.67 |
| 10-14' | 1 | 13.33 | 13.33 | +1.59 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 19 | 12.82 | 17.97 | +1.10 |
| Offshore | 17 | 12.53 | 17.13 | +0.96 |
| Light | 8 | 11.71 | 16.13 | +0.15 |
| Cross | 6 | 12.82 | 15.33 | +0.93 |
| Onshore | 4 | 11.88 | 16.57 | +0.64 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 54 of his 55 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 54 of 55. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.