AustraliaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025
Liam
O'Brien
- Trim
- 0.42per heat, ± 0.88 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 44at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.13113% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 4416 events
- Heats won
- 12of 44
- Mean heat total
- 11.55over 44
- Best heat
- 16.74SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro
The swell · O'BrienCT 2024 and 2025 · 44 rated heats
Scroll to ride 44 heats
The swell · four moments from 44 rated heats
- Heat 1 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe deepest trough.3.60 against an expected 10.72: a gap of −7.12, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 15 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.16.36 (Main Break, 1-4', onshore) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +5.64.
- Heat 37 · Surf City El Salvador Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundThe low tide.10.33 against an expected 11.47 (Punta Roca, 4-6', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.590.
- Heat 44 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Round of 32Where it ends.13.33 against 11.74, leaving his Trim at 0.423.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +5.64 at 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 12; worst −7.12 at 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 8. Axis to ±8, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 44 of this surfer's 44 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
44 heats across 16 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Pipeline | 3rd | 3.60 | 2.00 + 1.60 | −7.12exp 10.72 | −0.3220.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 4 | 1st | 12.33 | 8.50 + 3.83 | +0.86exp 11.47 | −0.2680.912 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 2 | 1st | 12.17 | 7.00 + 5.17 | +0.43exp 11.74 | −0.2370.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 1 | 2nd | 12.00 | 7.17 + 4.83 | −0.04exp 12.04 | −0.2280.831 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 12 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 9.40 | 5.33 + 4.07 | −1.32exp 10.72 | −0.2770.794 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 10 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 12.77 | 7.60 + 5.17 | +1.03exp 11.74 | −0.2180.758 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 5 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 13.83 | 7.83 + 6.00 | +1.79exp 12.04 | −0.1280.724 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 8 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 12.10 | 6.33 + 5.77 | −0.95exp 13.05 | −0.1650.691 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 12 · Supertubos | 3rd | 7.90 | 4.13 + 3.77 | −2.82exp 10.72 | −0.2850.660 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 10 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 4 · Molhe Leste | 2nd | 11.13 | 6.53 + 4.60 | −0.34exp 11.47 | −0.2870.630 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 11 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 2 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.83 | 5.00 + 3.83 | −2.91exp 11.74 | −0.4060.602 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 10 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 14.00 | 7.50 + 6.50 | +3.28exp 10.72 | −0.2400.574 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 6 · Winki Pop | 1st | 13.00 | 7.00 + 6.00 | +1.26exp 11.74 | −0.1720.548 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 3 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 14.33 | 7.33 + 7.00 | +2.29exp 12.04 | −0.0610.524 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Main Break | 2nd | 16.36 | 8.33 + 8.03 | +5.64exp 10.72 | 0.1970.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Main Break | 1st | 15.00 | 7.50 + 7.50 | +3.26exp 11.74 | 0.3350.477 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 17 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Main Break | 2nd | 8.84 | 6.67 + 2.17 | −3.20exp 12.04 | 0.1750.456 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 11.60 | 6.67 + 4.93 | +0.88exp 10.72 | 0.2070.435 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 19 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 16.74 | 8.67 + 8.07 | +5.27exp 11.47 | 0.4360.416 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.56 | 7.33 + 6.23 | +2.84exp 10.72 | 0.5440.397 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 21 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.23 | 6.80 + 4.43 | −0.24exp 11.47 | 0.5090.379 | 4-6' · Light | Eliminated |
| 22 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 3rd | 8.50 | 5.23 + 3.27 | −2.22exp 10.72 | 0.3850.362 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 23 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Itaúna | 1st | 10.66 | 5.83 + 4.83 | −0.81exp 11.47 | 0.3310.345 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 24 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.34 | 6.17 + 5.17 | −0.70exp 12.04 | 0.2850.330 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 25 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Cloudbreak | 3rd | 9.00 | 4.67 + 4.33 | −1.72exp 10.72 | 0.1940.315 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 26 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 7.03 | 3.53 + 3.50 | −4.44exp 11.47 | −0.0150.301 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 27 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Pipeline | 3rd | 8.17 | 6.67 + 1.50 | −2.55exp 10.72 | −0.1300.287 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Pipeline | 2nd | 7.10 | 5.33 + 1.77 | −4.37exp 11.47 | −0.3210.274 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 14 |
| 29 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 14 · Pipeline | 2nd | 14.30 | 7.17 + 7.13 | +2.56exp 11.74 | −0.1910.262 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 30 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 12 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 12.70 | — | +1.53exp 11.17 | −0.1140.250 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 7 |
| 31 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 7 | 2nd | 13.00 | — | +0.96exp 12.04 | −0.0650.239 | not published | Eliminated |
| 32 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 4 · Supertubos | 3rd | 8.33 | 4.33 + 4.00 | −2.39exp 10.72 | −0.1700.228 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 33 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 3 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.63 | 6.50 + 5.13 | +0.16exp 11.47 | −0.1550.218 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 34 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 2 · Supertubos | 1st | 9.80 | 5.67 + 4.13 | −1.94exp 11.74 | −0.2360.208 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 35 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 1 · Supertubos | 2nd | 6.00 | 3.50 + 2.50 | −6.04exp 12.04 | −0.4980.198 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 36 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 8.77 | 4.50 + 4.27 | −1.95exp 10.72 | −0.5640.189 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 37 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 10.33 | 5.33 + 5.00 | −1.14exp 11.47 | −0.5900.181 | 4-6' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 38 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 12 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 10.33 | 5.83 + 4.50 | −0.39exp 10.72 | −0.5810.173 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 39 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 3 | 2nd | 14.33 | 7.50 + 6.83 | +2.59exp 11.74 | −0.4380.165 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 40 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Burleigh | 2nd | 15.77 | 8.07 + 7.70 | +5.05exp 10.72 | −0.1900.157 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 41 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 15 · Burleigh | 1st | 15.97 | 9.10 + 6.87 | +4.23exp 11.74 | 0.0090.150 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 42 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Burleigh | 2nd | 15.54 | 8.87 + 6.67 | +3.50exp 12.04 | 0.1670.144 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 43 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Main Break | 1st | 15.33 | 8.00 + 7.33 | +4.61exp 10.72 | 0.3670.137 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 44 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Main Break | 2nd | 13.33 | 7.83 + 5.50 | +1.59exp 11.74 | 0.4230.131 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 39 of these 44 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 8 | 13.01 | 16.36 | +1.48 |
| 4-6' | 21 | 11.01 | 15.97 | −0.28 |
| 6-8' | 5 | 10.06 | 14.30 | −1.28 |
| 8-10' | 6 | 11.70 | 16.74 | +0.16 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 13.30 | 13.83 | +1.41 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 14 | 10.03 | 14.33 | −1.29 |
| Offshore | 12 | 12.30 | 16.74 | +1.08 |
| Cross | 6 | 10.33 | 13.83 | −1.30 |
| Light | 5 | 13.68 | 15.97 | +1.88 |
| Onshore | 5 | 12.80 | 16.36 | +1.40 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 42 of his 44 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 42 of 44. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.