South AfricaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025
Matthew
McGillivray
- Trim
- −0.15per heat, ± 0.88 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 47at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.11411% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 4717 events
- Heats won
- 16of 47
- Mean heat total
- 11.50over 47
- Best heat
- 16.40Surf City El Salvador Pro
The swell · McGillivrayCT 2024 and 2025 · 47 rated heats
Scroll to ride 47 heats
The swell · four moments from 47 rated heats
- Heat 3 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2024 · Round of 16The deepest trough.5.93 against an expected 12.04: a gap of −6.11, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 13 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2024 · SemifinalsThe low tide.7.77 against an expected 13.75 (Bells Beach, 1-4', onshore). His Trim bottoms out at −0.355.
- Heat 14 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.15.10 (Main Break, 1-4', onshore) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +4.38.
- Heat 47 · Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.9.20 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at −0.149.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +4.38 at 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 10; worst −6.11 at 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 8. Axis to ±7, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 47 of this surfer's 47 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
47 heats across 17 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Pipeline | 1st | 12.34 | 7.17 + 5.17 | +1.62exp 10.72 | 0.0730.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 15 | 1st | 10.00 | 7.17 + 2.83 | −1.74exp 11.74 | −0.0090.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 8 | 2nd | 5.93 | 3.10 + 2.83 | −6.11exp 12.04 | −0.2850.871 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 9 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 12.60 | 8.33 + 4.27 | +1.88exp 10.72 | −0.1870.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 13.03 | 6.60 + 6.43 | +1.29exp 11.74 | −0.1200.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 7 · Supertubos | 3rd | 6.96 | 3.83 + 3.13 | −3.76exp 10.72 | −0.2850.758 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 2 · Molhe Leste | 2nd | 12.97 | 7.27 + 5.70 | +1.50exp 11.47 | −0.2040.724 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 6 · Supertubos | 2nd | 15.47 | 8.90 + 6.57 | +3.73exp 11.74 | −0.0270.691 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 5 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 9.57 | 4.90 + 4.67 | −1.15exp 10.72 | −0.0770.660 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 10 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 4 · Winki Pop | 1st | 10.66 | 5.33 + 5.33 | −1.08exp 11.74 | −0.1230.630 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 11 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 2 · Winki Pop | 1st | 13.50 | 7.77 + 5.73 | +1.46exp 12.04 | −0.0510.602 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.17 | 7.00 + 5.17 | −0.88exp 13.05 | −0.0890.574 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachSemifinals · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 7.77 | 6.17 + 1.60 | −5.98exp 13.75 | −0.3550.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Main Break | 3rd | 15.10 | 7.80 + 7.30 | +4.38exp 10.72 | −0.1410.524 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Main Break | 1st | 14.00 | 7.50 + 6.50 | +2.53exp 11.47 | −0.0200.500 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Main Break | 2nd | 12.43 | 6.93 + 5.50 | +0.69exp 11.74 | 0.0120.477 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 17 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 11.43 | 6.00 + 5.43 | +0.71exp 10.72 | 0.0430.456 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 10.57 | 6.07 + 4.50 | −0.90exp 11.47 | 0.0000.435 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 19 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 8.10 | 4.33 + 3.77 | −2.62exp 10.72 | −0.1180.416 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.96 | 7.23 + 6.73 | +2.49exp 11.47 | 0.0000.397 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 7 |
| 21 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Punta Roca | 1st | 16.40 | 8.50 + 7.90 | +4.36exp 12.04 | 0.1970.379 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 22 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 1st | 15.17 | 7.77 + 7.40 | +2.12exp 13.05 | 0.2840.362 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 23 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 14.43 | 7.93 + 6.50 | +0.68exp 13.75 | 0.3020.345 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 24 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.33 | 6.20 + 5.13 | +0.61exp 10.72 | 0.3150.330 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 6 |
| 25 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 6 · Itaúna | 2nd | 10.50 | 6.50 + 4.00 | −0.97exp 11.47 | 0.2570.315 | 6-8' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 26 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Cloudbreak | 3rd | 7.74 | 5.07 + 2.67 | −2.98exp 10.72 | 0.1110.301 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 6 |
| 27 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 6 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 10.60 | 5.50 + 5.10 | −0.87exp 11.47 | 0.0670.287 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Pipeline | 1st | 10.50 | 6.50 + 4.00 | −0.22exp 10.72 | 0.0540.274 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 29 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Pipeline | 2nd | 8.40 | 6.17 + 2.23 | −3.34exp 11.74 | −0.1000.262 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 30 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 4 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 3rd | 11.10 | — | −0.07exp 11.17 | −0.0980.250 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 31 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 11 · Supertubos | 2nd | 10.20 | 5.53 + 4.67 | −0.52exp 10.72 | −0.1180.239 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 32 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 12 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.50 | 5.83 + 2.67 | −3.24exp 11.74 | −0.2590.228 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 33 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.10 | 7.27 + 5.83 | +2.38exp 10.72 | −0.1400.218 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 34 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.10 | 6.93 + 6.17 | +1.36exp 11.74 | −0.0720.208 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 35 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 1st | 12.33 | 6.33 + 6.00 | +0.29exp 12.04 | −0.0560.198 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 36 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 1st | 12.60 | 6.83 + 5.77 | −0.45exp 13.05 | −0.0730.189 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 37 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.84 | 8.17 + 5.67 | +0.09exp 13.75 | −0.0660.181 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 38 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProFinal · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.33 | 5.00 + 4.33 | −5.16exp 14.49 | −0.2960.173 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 39 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 12 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 9.46 | 4.83 + 4.63 | −1.26exp 10.72 | −0.3400.165 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 40 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 1st | 14.53 | 7.43 + 7.10 | +3.06exp 11.47 | −0.1860.157 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 41 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 10 | 2nd | 13.27 | 8.10 + 5.17 | +1.53exp 11.74 | −0.1090.150 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 42 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Burleigh | 3rd | 10.34 | 5.67 + 4.67 | −0.38exp 10.72 | −0.1210.144 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 43 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Burleigh | 3rd | 12.30 | 6.40 + 5.90 | +0.83exp 11.47 | −0.0780.137 | 1-4' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 44 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 1st | 14.33 | 8.00 + 6.33 | +3.61exp 10.72 | 0.0880.131 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 45 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Main Break | 2nd | 10.87 | 6.00 + 4.87 | −0.87exp 11.74 | 0.0450.125 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 46 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 3 · Supertubes | 2nd | 8.70 | 4.77 + 3.93 | −2.02exp 10.72 | −0.0480.119 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 47 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 3 · Supertubes | 2nd | 9.20 | 5.10 + 4.10 | −2.27exp 11.47 | −0.1490.114 | 4-6' · Onshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 44 of these 47 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 7 | 11.69 | 15.10 | −0.24 |
| 4-6' | 26 | 11.83 | 16.40 | +0.39 |
| 6-8' | 7 | 11.07 | 13.84 | −1.06 |
| 8-10' | 5 | 9.94 | 12.34 | −1.60 |
| 10-14' | 1 | 13.03 | 13.03 | +1.29 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 13 | 10.76 | 14.33 | −0.39 |
| Calm | 12 | 11.09 | 13.27 | −0.34 |
| Onshore | 9 | 11.02 | 15.10 | −0.66 |
| Light | 8 | 12.93 | 16.40 | +0.14 |
| Cross | 4 | 13.52 | 15.47 | +2.10 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 46 of his 47 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 46 of 47. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.