ANALYTICS

MoroccoCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025

Ramzi
Boukhiam

Trim
−1.11per heat, ± 0.90 (95%)
Rated heats
36at or above 16
Prior weight
0.18919% of the rating
Heats surfed
3714 events
Heats won
15of 37
Mean heat total
10.17over 36
Best heat
17.13SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro

The swell · four moments from 36 rated heats

  1. Heat 16 · SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Elimination RoundThe highest crest.16.86 (Teahupo'o, 8-10', offshore) against an expected 11.47. A gap of +5.39.
  2. Heat 28 · Lexus Pipe Pro 2025 · Round of 32The deepest trough.3.33 against an expected 11.74: a gap of −8.41, his largest miss in these seasons.
  3. Heat 32 · MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025 · Round of 32The low tide.8.56 against an expected 11.74 (Supertubos, 4-6', onshore). His Trim bottoms out at −1.401.
  4. Heat 36 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025 · Opening RoundWhere it ends.11.00 against 10.72, leaving his Trim at −1.111.

Trim timeline

Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025

first 15 heats: prior is 50% or more of the ratingprior · 02025−1.11heat 1heat 36Deviation from Datum, each heatHeat 1 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 9.66 against an expected 10.72 (−1.06) Trim 0.000 → −0.048 · prior weight 0.955 2nd in the heatHeat 2 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 5 Scored 10.83 against an expected 11.74 (−0.91) Trim −0.048 → −0.087 · prior weight 0.912 1st in the heatHeat 3 — 2024 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 16 heat 3 Scored 4.17 against an expected 12.04 (−7.87) Trim −0.087 → −0.439 · prior weight 0.871 2nd in the heatHeat 4 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Opening Round heat 12 Scored 2.43 against an expected 10.72 (−8.29) Trim −0.439 → −0.793 · prior weight 0.831 3rd in the heatHeat 5 — 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach · Elimination Round heat 3 Scored 4.53 against an expected 11.47 (−6.94) Trim −0.793 → −1.071 · prior weight 0.794 3rd in the heatHeat 6 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 9 Scored 11.27 against an expected 10.72 (+0.55) Trim −1.071 → −0.998 · prior weight 0.758 1st in the heatHeat 7 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 32 heat 7 Scored 15.10 against an expected 11.74 (+3.36) Trim −0.998 → −0.801 · prior weight 0.724 1st in the heatHeat 8 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 16 heat 4 Scored 15.67 against an expected 12.04 (+3.63) Trim −0.801 → −0.601 · prior weight 0.691 1st in the heatHeat 9 — 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Quarterfinals heat 2 Scored 7.67 against an expected 13.05 (−5.38) Trim −0.601 → −0.817 · prior weight 0.660 2nd in the heatHeat 10 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 1 Scored 11.84 against an expected 10.72 (+1.12) Trim −0.817 → −0.729 · prior weight 0.630 1st in the heatHeat 11 — 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 6 Scored 12.30 against an expected 11.74 (+0.56) Trim −0.729 → −0.671 · prior weight 0.602 2nd in the heatHeat 12 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 13.26 against an expected 10.72 (+2.54) Trim −0.671 → −0.526 · prior weight 0.574 1st in the heatHeat 13 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 32 heat 6 Scored 13.06 against an expected 11.74 (+1.32) Trim −0.526 → −0.443 · prior weight 0.548 1st in the heatHeat 14 — 2024 Western Australia Margaret River Pro · Round of 16 heat 3 Scored 8.33 against an expected 12.04 (−3.71) Trim −0.443 → −0.591 · prior weight 0.524 2nd in the heatHeat 15 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 12.83 against an expected 10.72 (+2.11) Trim −0.591 → −0.469 · prior weight 0.500 2nd in the heatHeat 16 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Elimination Round heat 4 Scored 16.86 against an expected 11.47 (+5.39) Trim −0.469 → −0.204 · prior weight 0.477 1st in the heatHeat 17 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Round of 16 heat 2 Scored 13.67 against an expected 12.04 (+1.63) Trim −0.204 → −0.121 · prior weight 0.456 1st in the heatHeat 18 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Quarterfinals heat 1 Scored 17.13 against an expected 13.05 (+4.08) Trim −0.121 → 0.069 · prior weight 0.435 1st in the heatHeat 19 — 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Semifinals heat 1 Scored 8.50 against an expected 13.75 (−5.25) Trim 0.069 → −0.172 · prior weight 0.416 2nd in the heatHeat 20 — 2024 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 10.57 against an expected 10.72 (−0.15) Trim −0.172 → −0.171 · prior weight 0.397 2nd in the heatHeat 21 — 2024 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Elimination Round heat 2 Scored 11.57 against an expected 11.47 (+0.10) Trim −0.171 → −0.159 · prior weight 0.379 2nd in the heatHeat 22 — 2024 VIVO Rio Pro · Opening Round heat 4 Scored 10.30 against an expected 10.72 (−0.42) Trim −0.159 → −0.170 · prior weight 0.362 1st in the heatHeat 23 — 2024 VIVO Rio Pro · Round of 16 heat 7 Scored 8.50 against an expected 12.04 (−3.54) Trim −0.170 → −0.323 · prior weight 0.345 2nd in the heatHeat 24 — 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Opening Round heat 1 Scored 3.66 against an expected 10.72 (−7.06) Trim −0.323 → −0.627 · prior weight 0.330 3rd in the heatHeat 25 — 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Elimination Round heat 4 Scored 7.83 against an expected 11.47 (−3.64) Trim −0.627 → −0.763 · prior weight 0.315 1st in the heatHeat 26 — 2024 Corona Fiji Pro · Round of 16 heat 4 Scored 11.26 against an expected 12.04 (−0.78) Trim −0.763 → −0.764 · prior weight 0.301 2nd in the heatHeat 27 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Opening Round heat 10 Scored 7.40 against an expected 10.72 (−3.32) Trim −0.764 → −0.879 · prior weight 0.287 1st in the heatHeat 28 — 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 3 Scored 3.33 against an expected 11.74 (−8.41) Trim −0.879 → −1.220 · prior weight 0.274 2nd in the heatHeat 29 — 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi Pro · Qualifying Round heat 12 Scored 11.87 against an expected 11.17 (+0.70) Trim −1.220 → −1.133 · prior weight 0.262 2nd in the heatHeat 30 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Opening Round heat 8 Scored 4.30 against an expected 10.72 (−6.42) Trim −1.133 → −1.372 · prior weight 0.250 3rd in the heatHeat 31 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Elimination Round heat 4 Scored 11.33 against an expected 11.47 (−0.14) Trim −1.372 → −1.316 · prior weight 0.239 2nd in the heatHeat 32 — 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 32 heat 10 Scored 8.56 against an expected 11.74 (−3.18) Trim −1.316 → −1.401 · prior weight 0.228 2nd in the heatHeat 33 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 3 Scored 13.77 against an expected 10.72 (+3.05) Trim −1.401 → −1.200 · prior weight 0.218 1st in the heatHeat 34 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 32 heat 10 Scored 11.17 against an expected 11.74 (−0.57) Trim −1.200 → −1.171 · prior weight 0.208 1st in the heatHeat 35 — 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Round of 16 heat 5 Scored 10.76 against an expected 12.04 (−1.28) Trim −1.171 → −1.176 · prior weight 0.198 2nd in the heatHeat 36 — 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Opening Round heat 6 Scored 11.00 against an expected 10.72 (+0.28) Trim −1.176 → −1.111 · prior weight 0.189 3rd in the heat

Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.

Extremes — best +5.39 at 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Elimination Round heat 4; worst −8.41 at 2025 Lexus Pipe Pro · Round of 32 heat 3. Axis to ±9, the exact maximum rounded outward.

How this is computed
Computed over trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 36 of this surfer's 37 heats; the other 1 carry no published heat total, so they are absent from the line rather than plotted as zero. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.

Heat log

37 heats across 14 events

Every heat this surfer surfed, in career order, with the published finishing position, heat total, counting rides, the deviation from Datum and the Trim that followed
Counting ridesConditionsProgression
12024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Pipeline2nd9.665.83 + 3.83−1.06exp 10.72−0.0480.9558-10' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 5
22024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 51st10.836.33 + 4.50−0.91exp 11.74−0.0870.9128-10' · Calm—
32024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 32nd4.173.17 + 1.00−7.87exp 12.04−0.4390.8718-10' · Calm—
42024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 12 · Sunset Beach3rd2.431.53 + 0.90−8.29exp 10.72−0.7930.8316-8' · CrossAdv to ER - HT 3
52024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 3 · Sunset Beach3rd4.532.53 + 2.00−6.94exp 11.47−1.0710.7946-8' · CrossEliminated
62024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 9 · Supertubos1st11.275.77 + 5.50+0.55exp 10.72−0.9980.7584-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 7
72024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 7 · Supertubos1st15.107.67 + 7.43+3.36exp 11.74−0.8010.7244-6' · Cross—
82024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 4 · Supertubos1st15.678.50 + 7.17+3.63exp 12.04−0.6010.6914-6' · Cross—
92024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 2 · Supertubos2nd7.674.50 + 3.17−5.38exp 13.05−0.8170.6601-4' · Cross—
102024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach1st11.847.17 + 4.67+1.12exp 10.72−0.7290.6304-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 6
112024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 6 · Winki Pop2nd12.306.80 + 5.50+0.56exp 11.74−0.6710.6021-4' · Offshore—
122024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Main Break1st13.266.83 + 6.43+2.54exp 10.72−0.5260.5741-4' · OffshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 6
132024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Main Break1st13.067.33 + 5.73+1.32exp 11.74−0.4430.5484-6' · Offshore—
142024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Main Break2nd8.335.00 + 3.33−3.71exp 12.04−0.5910.5241-4' · Offshore—
152024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Teahupo'o2nd12.838.33 + 4.50+2.11exp 10.72−0.4690.5006-8' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 4
162024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Teahupo'o1st16.869.13 + 7.73+5.39exp 11.47−0.2040.4778-10' · OffshoreAdv to R/16 - HT 2
172024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Teahupo'o1st13.677.17 + 6.50+1.63exp 12.04−0.1210.4568-10' · Offshore—
182024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Teahupo'o1st17.139.80 + 7.33+4.08exp 13.050.0690.4358-10' · Offshore—
192024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProSemifinals · heat 1 · Teahupo'o2nd8.507.17 + 1.33−5.25exp 13.75−0.1720.4168-10' · Offshore—
202024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Punta Roca2nd10.575.67 + 4.90−0.15exp 10.72−0.1710.3974-6' · LightAdv to ER - HT 2
212024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Punta Roca2nd11.575.90 + 5.67+0.10exp 11.47−0.1590.3794-6' · LightEliminated
222024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Itaúna1st10.305.30 + 5.00−0.42exp 10.72−0.1700.3624-6' · CalmAdv to R/16 - HT 7
232024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 7 · Itaúna2nd8.506.33 + 2.17−3.54exp 12.04−0.3230.3456-8' · Onshore—
242024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Cloudbreak3rd3.662.83 + 0.83−7.06exp 10.72−0.6270.3304-6' · OffshoreAdv to ER - HT 4
252024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Cloudbreak1st7.834.83 + 3.00−3.64exp 11.47−0.7630.3154-6' · OffshoreAdv to R/16 - HT 4
262024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 4 · Cloudbreak2nd11.265.73 + 5.53−0.78exp 12.04−0.7640.3014-6' · Offshore—
272025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Pipeline1st7.404.83 + 2.57−3.32exp 10.72−0.8790.2876-8' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 3
282025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 3 · Pipeline2nd3.333.33 + 0.00−8.41exp 11.74−1.2200.2746-8' · Calm—
292025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 12 · Surf Abu Dhabi2nd11.87—+0.70exp 11.17−1.1330.262not publishedAdv to NS
302025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 8 · Supertubos3rd4.302.33 + 1.97−6.42exp 10.72−1.3720.2504-6' · CalmAdv to ER - HT 4
312025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 4 · Supertubos2nd11.336.40 + 4.93−0.14exp 11.47−1.3160.2391-4' · OnshoreAdv to R/32 - HT 10
322025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 10 · Supertubos2nd8.564.33 + 4.23−3.18exp 11.74−1.4010.2284-6' · Onshore—
332025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Punta Roca1st13.777.17 + 6.60+3.05exp 10.72−1.2000.2184-6' · CalmAdv to R/32 - HT 10
342025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Punta Roca1st11.176.00 + 5.17−0.57exp 11.74−1.1710.2084-6' · Calm—
352025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Punta Roca2nd10.765.43 + 5.33−1.28exp 12.04−1.1760.1986-8' · Offshore—
362025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 6 · Bells Beach3rd11.005.67 + 5.33+0.28exp 10.72−1.1110.1894-6' · OnshoreAdv to ER - HT 2
—2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 23rd————not publishedEliminated
How this is computed
Computed over heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero (1 here). The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 34 of these 37 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.

Condition splits

What he scored, by what the page said

By published wave height

By published wave height: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
HeightHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
1-4'510.5813.26−1.23
4-6'1610.6815.67−0.55
6-8'77.1112.83−4.24
8-10'711.5517.13−0.57

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

By published wind

By published wind: heats, mean heat total, best heat total and mean deviation from the round's expected total, for each published condition
WindHeatsMeanBestvs Datum
Offshore1511.5017.13−0.16
Calm98.3313.77−2.88
Cross59.0815.67−2.72
Onshore49.8511.33−1.65
Light211.0711.57−0.03

“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.

What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 35 of his 37 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.

How this is computed
Computed over heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 35 of 37. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.