IndonesiaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Rio
Waida
- Trim
- −0.76per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 61at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0606% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 6120 events
- Heats won
- 22of 61
- Mean heat total
- 11.23over 61
- Best heat
- 16.26Corona Fiji Pro
The swell · WaidaCT 2024 and 2025 · 61 rated heats
Scroll to ride 61 heats
The swell · four moments from 61 rated heats
- Heat 49 · Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundThe highest crest.15.17 (Burleigh, 1-4', calm) against an expected 11.47. A gap of +3.70.
- Heat 61 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Round of 16The low tide.1.94 against an expected 12.04 (Teahupo'o, 6-8', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.762.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +3.70 at 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro · Elimination Round heat 3; worst −10.10 at 2025 Lexus Tahiti Pro · Round of 16 heat 3. Axis to ±11, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 61 of this surfer's 61 heats. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
61 heats across 20 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Pipeline | 3rd | 1.70 | 1.00 + 0.70 | −9.02exp 10.72 | −0.4070.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 2 | 3rd | 6.50 | 4.33 + 2.17 | −4.97exp 11.47 | −0.6130.912 | 8-10' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 6 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 10.66 | 5.83 + 4.83 | −0.06exp 10.72 | −0.5890.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 8 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 10.03 | 6.33 + 3.70 | −1.71exp 11.74 | −0.6390.831 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 11.60 | 5.93 + 5.67 | −0.44exp 12.04 | −0.6300.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 5 · Supertubos | 3rd | 9.67 | 5.17 + 4.50 | −1.05exp 10.72 | −0.6490.758 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 7 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 4 · Molhe Leste | 1st | 12.67 | 6.67 + 6.00 | +1.20exp 11.47 | −0.5660.724 | 4-6' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 15 · Supertubos | 1st | 11.73 | 6.00 + 5.73 | −0.01exp 11.74 | −0.5410.691 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 8 · Supertubos | 2nd | 13.50 | 8.00 + 5.50 | +1.46exp 12.04 | −0.4510.660 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 4 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 10.67 | 6.50 + 4.17 | −0.05exp 10.72 | −0.4330.630 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 11 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 13.37 | 7.00 + 6.37 | +1.90exp 11.47 | −0.3270.602 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 15 · Winki Pop | 1st | 14.07 | 7.50 + 6.57 | +2.33exp 11.74 | −0.2070.574 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 13 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 8 · Winki Pop | 1st | 12.30 | 6.37 + 5.93 | +0.26exp 12.04 | −0.1860.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Bells Beach | 1st | 12.17 | 6.50 + 5.67 | −0.88exp 13.05 | −0.2170.524 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 15 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachSemifinals · heat 2 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 14.53 | 7.60 + 6.93 | +0.78exp 13.75 | −0.1720.500 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Main Break | 3rd | 12.56 | 6.33 + 6.23 | +1.84exp 10.72 | −0.0820.477 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 17 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Main Break | 3rd | 7.13 | 4.13 + 3.00 | −4.34exp 11.47 | −0.2740.456 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 9.60 | 4.93 + 4.67 | −1.12exp 10.72 | −0.3120.435 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 6 |
| 19 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 14.04 | 7.17 + 6.87 | +2.57exp 11.47 | −0.1820.416 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 20 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 9.33 | 7.00 + 2.33 | −2.71exp 12.04 | −0.2960.397 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 21 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 13.97 | 7.30 + 6.67 | +0.92exp 13.05 | −0.2410.379 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 22 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.93 | 5.60 + 4.33 | −0.79exp 10.72 | −0.2660.362 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 23 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 1st | 13.84 | 7.17 + 6.67 | +2.37exp 11.47 | −0.1470.345 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 24 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 9.00 | 5.50 + 3.50 | −3.04exp 12.04 | −0.2780.330 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 25 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Itaúna | 2nd | 12.60 | 7.60 + 5.00 | +1.88exp 10.72 | −0.1800.315 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 26 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.70 | 7.37 + 5.33 | +1.23exp 11.47 | −0.1170.301 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 27 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.70 | 7.87 + 3.83 | −0.34exp 12.04 | −0.1270.287 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 28 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 12.83 | 6.63 + 6.20 | +2.11exp 10.72 | −0.0260.274 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 6 |
| 29 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 6 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 15.43 | 7.93 + 7.50 | +3.39exp 12.04 | 0.1280.262 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 30 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 12.83 | 6.83 + 6.00 | −0.22exp 13.05 | 0.1130.250 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 31 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 16.26 | 8.93 + 7.33 | +2.51exp 13.75 | 0.2210.239 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 32 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProFinal · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 10.17 | 5.50 + 4.67 | −4.32exp 14.49 | 0.0160.228 | 1-4' · Offshore | — |
| 33 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Pipeline | 2nd | 7.83 | 4.50 + 3.33 | −2.89exp 10.72 | −0.1150.218 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 34 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 11 · Pipeline | 2nd | 12.83 | 6.50 + 6.33 | +1.09exp 11.74 | −0.0610.208 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 35 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 9 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 1st | 14.34 | — | +3.17exp 11.17 | 0.0850.198 | not published | Adv to R16 - HT 4 |
| 36 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProRound of 16 · heat 4 | 1st | 13.90 | — | +1.86exp 12.04 | 0.1650.189 | not published | Adv to QF - HT 2 |
| 37 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQuarterfinals · heat 2 | 1st | 14.90 | — | +1.85exp 13.05 | 0.2410.181 | not published | Adv to SF - HT 1 |
| 38 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProSemifinals · heat 1 | 1st | 15.93 | — | +2.18exp 13.75 | 0.3290.173 | not published | Adv to F |
| 39 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProFinal · heat 1 | 2nd | 14.50 | — | +0.01exp 14.49 | 0.3140.165 | not published | Eliminated |
| 40 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 2 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.60 | 4.60 + 4.00 | −2.12exp 10.72 | 0.2040.157 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 41 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 11 · Supertubos | 1st | 9.97 | 5.67 + 4.30 | −1.77exp 11.74 | 0.1150.150 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 42 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 6 · Supertubos | 1st | 9.17 | 5.67 + 3.50 | −2.87exp 12.04 | −0.0200.144 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 43 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Supertubos | 2nd | 6.43 | 3.33 + 3.10 | −6.62exp 13.05 | −0.3180.137 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 44 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.43 | 7.00 + 4.43 | +0.71exp 10.72 | −0.2710.131 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 45 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.50 | 7.83 + 5.67 | +1.76exp 11.74 | −0.1800.125 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 46 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 10.20 | 5.93 + 4.27 | −0.52exp 10.72 | −0.1950.119 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/32 - HT 11 |
| 47 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 11 | 2nd | 8.00 | 4.50 + 3.50 | −3.74exp 11.74 | −0.3550.114 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 48 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 10 · Burleigh | 3rd | 11.83 | 6.23 + 5.60 | +1.11exp 10.72 | −0.2890.109 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 49 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Burleigh | 1st | 15.17 | 8.17 + 7.00 | +3.70exp 11.47 | −0.1090.104 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 8 |
| 50 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 8 · Burleigh | 2nd | 10.83 | 6.00 + 4.83 | −0.91exp 11.74 | −0.1450.099 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 51 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Main Break | 2nd | 8.33 | 4.83 + 3.50 | −2.39exp 10.72 | −0.2470.095 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 15 |
| 52 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 15 · Main Break | 2nd | 10.50 | 5.50 + 5.00 | −1.24exp 11.74 | −0.2920.090 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 53 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Lower Trestles | 3rd | 10.24 | 5.67 + 4.57 | −0.48exp 10.72 | −0.3010.086 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 54 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 11.70 | 6.83 + 4.87 | +0.23exp 11.47 | −0.2770.082 | 4-6' · Light | Eliminated |
| 55 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 3rd | 6.56 | 3.33 + 3.23 | −4.16exp 10.72 | −0.4520.079 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 56 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Itaúna | 2nd | 12.57 | 6.67 + 5.90 | +1.10exp 11.47 | −0.3820.075 | 4-6' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 57 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 6 · Supertubes | 3rd | 12.50 | 6.50 + 6.00 | +1.78exp 10.72 | −0.2840.072 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 58 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 4 · Supertubes | 2nd | 12.57 | 6.50 + 6.07 | +1.10exp 11.47 | −0.2220.069 | 4-6' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 59 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 3rd | 7.26 | 4.43 + 2.83 | −3.46exp 10.72 | −0.3680.065 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 60 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 12.17 | 6.50 + 5.67 | +0.70exp 11.47 | −0.3200.063 | 8-10' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 3 |
| 61 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 1.94 | 1.17 + 0.77 | −10.10exp 12.04 | −0.7620.060 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero. The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 55 of these 61 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 12 | 12.44 | 16.26 | +0.17 |
| 4-6' | 28 | 11.08 | 15.43 | −0.27 |
| 6-8' | 6 | 9.09 | 12.83 | −2.24 |
| 8-10' | 8 | 9.43 | 14.04 | −2.15 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 10.82 | 11.60 | −1.08 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 17 | 11.61 | 16.26 | −0.18 |
| Calm | 14 | 9.04 | 15.17 | −2.15 |
| Light | 9 | 11.16 | 13.84 | −0.25 |
| Cross | 8 | 10.72 | 13.50 | −1.13 |
| Onshore | 8 | 12.63 | 14.53 | +0.76 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 56 of his 61 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 56 of 61. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.