AustraliaCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025
Ryan
Callinan
- Trim
- −0.01per heat, ± 0.90 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 37at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.18118% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 3815 events
- Heats won
- 13of 38
- Mean heat total
- 11.73over 37
- Best heat
- 16.80SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro
The swell · CallinanCT 2024 and 2025 · 37 rated heats
Scroll to ride 37 heats
The swell · four moments from 37 rated heats
- Heat 15 · SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro 2024 · Opening RoundThe highest crest.15.60 (Teahupo'o, 4-6', offshore) against an expected 10.72. A gap of +4.88.
- Heat 31 · Surf City El Salvador Pro 2025 · Opening RoundThe low tide.4.67 against an expected 10.72 (Punta Roca, 4-6', calm). His Trim bottoms out at −0.200.
- Heat 37 · Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.8.20 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at −0.014.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +4.88 at 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti Pro · Opening Round heat 7; worst −6.05 at 2025 Surf City El Salvador Pro · Opening Round heat 11. Axis to ±7, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 37 of this surfer's 38 heats; the other 1 carry no published heat total, so they are absent from the line rather than plotted as zero. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
38 heats across 15 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Pipeline | 1st | 10.33 | 6.83 + 3.50 | −0.39exp 10.72 | −0.0180.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 3 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 3 | 2nd | 7.84 | 5.17 + 2.67 | −3.90exp 11.74 | −0.1930.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 12 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 11.00 | 5.93 + 5.07 | +0.28exp 10.72 | −0.1720.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 12 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 12.34 | 6.17 + 6.17 | +0.60exp 11.74 | −0.1370.831 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 6 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 12.50 | 7.67 + 4.83 | +0.46exp 12.04 | −0.1100.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 16.00 | 9.00 + 7.00 | +2.95exp 13.05 | 0.0280.758 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachSemifinals · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 13.10 | 7.30 + 5.80 | −0.65exp 13.75 | −0.0030.724 | 6-8' · Light | — |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 9 · Supertubos | 3rd | 8.43 | 4.30 + 4.13 | −2.29exp 10.72 | −0.1060.691 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 3 · Molhe Leste | 3rd | 10.36 | 5.53 + 4.83 | −1.11exp 11.47 | −0.1510.660 | 4-6' · Cross | Eliminated |
| 10 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 9 · Bells Beach | 1st | 13.67 | 7.17 + 6.50 | +2.95exp 10.72 | −0.0110.630 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 11 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 2 · Winki Pop | 1st | 14.50 | 7.67 + 6.83 | +2.76exp 11.74 | 0.1140.602 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 12 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 1 · Winki Pop | 2nd | 12.27 | 7.10 + 5.17 | +0.23exp 12.04 | 0.1190.574 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 13 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 8 · Main Break | 2nd | 14.33 | 7.50 + 6.83 | +3.61exp 10.72 | 0.2760.548 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 2 · Main Break | 2nd | 12.40 | 7.67 + 4.73 | +0.66exp 11.74 | 0.2940.524 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 15 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 15.60 | 9.10 + 6.50 | +4.88exp 10.72 | 0.5010.500 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 16 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 1st | 16.80 | 9.30 + 7.50 | +4.76exp 12.04 | 0.6930.477 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 17 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProQuarterfinals · heat 4 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 15.94 | 8.17 + 7.77 | +2.89exp 13.05 | 0.7920.456 | 8-10' · Offshore | — |
| 18 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 10.84 | 5.67 + 5.17 | +0.12exp 10.72 | 0.7620.435 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 19 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Punta Roca | 1st | 14.27 | 8.17 + 6.10 | +2.80exp 11.47 | 0.8540.416 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to R/16 - HT 2 |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 16 · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 15.00 | 8.00 + 7.00 | +2.96exp 12.04 | 0.9490.397 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 21 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 3 · Itaúna | 2nd | 11.23 | 5.83 + 5.40 | +0.51exp 10.72 | 0.9290.379 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 22 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Itaúna | 1st | 13.54 | 7.17 + 6.37 | +2.07exp 11.47 | 0.9810.362 | 6-8' · Onshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 23 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Itaúna | 2nd | 7.30 | 3.90 + 3.40 | −4.74exp 12.04 | 0.7220.345 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 24 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 10.83 | 6.33 + 4.50 | +0.11exp 10.72 | 0.6940.330 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 6 |
| 25 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 6 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 11.34 | 6.67 + 4.67 | −0.13exp 11.47 | 0.6570.315 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 8 |
| 26 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 8 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 7.60 | 4.60 + 3.00 | −4.44exp 12.04 | 0.4270.301 | 1-4' · Cross | — |
| 27 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Pipeline | 3rd | 8.57 | 4.50 + 4.07 | −2.15exp 10.72 | 0.3110.287 | 6-8' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 3 · Pipeline | 1st | 8.33 | 4.50 + 3.83 | −3.14exp 11.47 | 0.1550.274 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 29 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Pipeline | 2nd | 10.83 | 6.50 + 4.33 | −0.91exp 11.74 | 0.1070.262 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 30 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 9 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 2nd | 10.63 | — | −0.54exp 11.17 | 0.0770.250 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 31 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 11 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 4.67 | 2.60 + 2.07 | −6.05exp 10.72 | −0.2000.239 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 32 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 13.07 | 7.00 + 6.07 | +1.60exp 11.47 | −0.1180.228 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 12 |
| 33 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 12 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 12.00 | 6.33 + 5.67 | +0.26exp 11.74 | −0.1010.218 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 34 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 7 · Bells Beach | 2nd | 12.56 | 6.93 + 5.63 | +1.84exp 10.72 | −0.0140.208 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 1 |
| 35 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 1 | 2nd | 12.80 | 6.67 + 6.13 | +1.06exp 11.74 | 0.0350.198 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| — | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Burleigh | 3rd | — | — | — | — | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 36 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 3rd | 13.10 | 7.00 + 6.10 | +2.38exp 10.72 | 0.1400.189 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 37 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 1 · Main Break | 3rd | 8.20 | 4.43 + 3.77 | −3.27exp 11.47 | −0.0140.181 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero (1 here). The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 36 of these 38 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 5 of 6 | 12.30 | 14.50 | +0.64 |
| 4-6' | 17 | 12.08 | 16.00 | +0.85 |
| 6-8' | 7 | 10.38 | 13.54 | −1.32 |
| 8-10' | 5 | 11.82 | 16.80 | +0.02 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 12.42 | 12.50 | +0.53 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 11 of 12 | 12.79 | 16.80 | +1.50 |
| Calm | 9 | 10.12 | 13.07 | −1.22 |
| Onshore | 6 | 11.46 | 14.50 | +0.00 |
| Cross | 5 | 10.76 | 12.50 | −0.84 |
| Light | 5 | 13.84 | 16.00 | +1.64 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 37 of his 38 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 37 of 38. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.