HawaiiCT 2024 and 2025Last heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025
Seth
Moniz
- Trim
- −0.99per heat, ± 0.87 (95%)
- Rated heats
- 53at or above 16
- Prior weight
- 0.0869% of the rating
- Heats surfed
- 5420 events
- Heats won
- 17of 54
- Mean heat total
- 10.49over 53
- Best heat
- 15.90Western Australia Margaret River Pro
The swell · MonizCT 2024 and 2025 · 53 rated heats
Scroll to ride 53 heats
The swell · four moments from 53 rated heats
- Heat 33 · MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025 · Round of 16The deepest trough.4.83 against an expected 12.04: a gap of −7.21, his largest miss in these seasons.
- Heat 38 · Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025 · Round of 32The highest crest.15.70 (1-4', calm) against an expected 11.74. A gap of +3.96.
- Heat 51 · Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025 · Elimination RoundThe low tide.7.76 against an expected 11.47 (Supertubes, 4-6', onshore). His Trim bottoms out at −1.250.
- Heat 53 · Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025 · Elimination RoundWhere it ends.13.00 against 11.47, leaving his Trim at −0.992.
Trim timeline
Every recorded heat, 2024 and 2025
Reading it — the line is Trim after each heat: points per heat above or below what that round usually yields. It starts at the prior, 0.000, and moves by a decayed share of each heat's deviation. The bars below are those deviations, one per heat, on their own scale. Neither panel is a prediction.
Extremes — best +3.96 at 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach · Round of 32 heat 4; worst −7.21 at 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal · Round of 16 heat 7. Axis to ±8, the exact maximum rounded outward.
How this is computed
Computed over
trim joined to datum, in the run's own ordering — 53 of this surfer's 54 heats; the other 1 carry no published heat total, so they are absent from the line rather than plotted as zero. Trim is an EWMA of the deviation from Datum (ewma_residual_hl15, half-life 15 heats, prior 0, computed 2026-10-17 over 1845 entries and 73 surfers). Datum is a ridge on the round alone, so “expected” is what that round usually yields, not what these conditions or this break usually yield. The decay earns very little: walk-forward RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123 for a shrunk flat mean of the same residuals — paired t 0.56. Predicting zero for everyone scores 2.9688. The ordering is what Trim is for; the half-life is not doing the work.Heat log
54 heats across 20 events
| Counting rides | Conditions | Progression | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 4 · Pipeline | 3rd | 6.80 | 5.17 + 1.63 | −3.92exp 10.72 | −0.1770.955 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| — | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProElimination Round · heat 1 | 1st | — | — | — | — | not published | Adv to R/32 - HT 14 |
| 2 | 2024 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 14 | 2nd | 10.67 | 6.00 + 4.67 | −1.07exp 11.74 | −0.2180.912 | 8-10' · Calm | — |
| 3 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachOpening Round · heat 5 · Sunset Beach | 3rd | 7.37 | 3.80 + 3.57 | −3.35exp 10.72 | −0.3590.871 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 4 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachElimination Round · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 10.77 | 5.70 + 5.07 | −0.70exp 11.47 | −0.3750.831 | 6-8' · Cross | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 5 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 32 · heat 4 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 11.34 | 6.67 + 4.67 | −0.40exp 11.74 | −0.3760.794 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 6 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachRound of 16 · heat 2 · Sunset Beach | 1st | 10.40 | 6.17 + 4.23 | −1.64exp 12.04 | −0.4330.758 | 10-14' · Cross | — |
| 7 | 2024 Hurley Pro Sunset BeachQuarterfinals · heat 1 · Sunset Beach | 2nd | 10.90 | 7.50 + 3.40 | −2.15exp 13.05 | −0.5100.724 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 8 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 8 · Supertubos | 1st | 12.60 | 6.77 + 5.83 | +1.88exp 10.72 | −0.4020.691 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 9 | 2024 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 4 · Supertubos | 2nd | 10.33 | 6.00 + 4.33 | −1.41exp 11.74 | −0.4480.660 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 10 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 3 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 5.00 | 5.00 (1 of 2) | −5.72exp 10.72 | −0.6860.630 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 1 |
| 11 | 2024 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 1 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 10.23 | 5.40 + 4.83 | −1.24exp 11.47 | −0.7110.602 | 4-6' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 12 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Main Break | 1st | 12.70 | 7.17 + 5.53 | +1.98exp 10.72 | −0.5900.574 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 10 |
| 13 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 32 · heat 10 · Main Break | 1st | 10.60 | 5.83 + 4.77 | −1.14exp 11.74 | −0.6150.548 | 1-4' · Onshore | — |
| 14 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Main Break | 1st | 14.67 | 8.17 + 6.50 | +2.63exp 12.04 | −0.4680.524 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 15 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProQuarterfinals · heat 3 · Main Break | 1st | 15.90 | 8.73 + 7.17 | +2.85exp 13.05 | −0.3180.500 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 16 | 2024 Western Australia Margaret River ProSemifinals · heat 2 · Main Break | 2nd | 13.70 | 7.37 + 6.33 | −0.05exp 13.75 | −0.3060.477 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 17 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 12.33 | 6.83 + 5.50 | +1.61exp 10.72 | −0.2200.456 | 6-8' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 8 |
| 18 | 2024 SHISEIDO Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 8 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 15.33 | 8.50 + 6.83 | +3.86exp 11.47 | −0.0360.435 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 19 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 6 · Punta Roca | 3rd | 9.57 | 5.90 + 3.67 | −1.15exp 10.72 | −0.0860.416 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 4 |
| 20 | 2024 Surf City El Salvador ProElimination Round · heat 4 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 11.93 | 6.60 + 5.33 | +0.46exp 11.47 | −0.0610.397 | 4-6' · Light | Eliminated |
| 21 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 2 · Itaúna | 1st | 12.40 | 7.17 + 5.23 | +1.68exp 10.72 | 0.0170.379 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/16 - HT 5 |
| 22 | 2024 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Itaúna | 2nd | 8.00 | 5.50 + 2.50 | −4.04exp 12.04 | −0.1660.362 | 6-8' · Onshore | — |
| 23 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Cloudbreak | 3rd | 5.67 | 4.50 + 1.17 | −5.05exp 10.72 | −0.3870.345 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 24 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Cloudbreak | 1st | 13.10 | 7.23 + 5.87 | +1.63exp 11.47 | −0.2960.330 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 1 |
| 25 | 2024 Corona Fiji ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Cloudbreak | 2nd | 12.23 | 6.33 + 5.90 | +0.19exp 12.04 | −0.2740.315 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 26 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Pipeline | 1st | 12.06 | 7.33 + 4.73 | +1.34exp 10.72 | −0.2010.301 | 6-8' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 27 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 32 · heat 2 · Pipeline | 1st | 11.60 | 7.83 + 3.77 | −0.14exp 11.74 | −0.1980.287 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 28 | 2025 Lexus Pipe ProRound of 16 · heat 1 · Pipeline | 2nd | 11.83 | 6.50 + 5.33 | −0.21exp 12.04 | −0.1990.274 | 6-8' · Calm | — |
| 29 | 2025 Surf Abu Dhabi ProQualifying Round · heat 8 · Surf Abu Dhabi | 2nd | 8.97 | — | −2.20exp 11.17 | −0.2890.262 | not published | Adv to NS |
| 30 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalOpening Round · heat 5 · Supertubos | 3rd | 4.23 | 2.33 + 1.90 | −6.49exp 10.72 | −0.5700.250 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 31 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalElimination Round · heat 2 · Supertubos | 2nd | 8.50 | 4.67 + 3.83 | −2.97exp 11.47 | −0.6780.239 | 1-4' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 14 |
| 32 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 32 · heat 14 · Supertubos | 1st | 10.20 | 5.83 + 4.37 | −1.54exp 11.74 | −0.7170.228 | 4-6' · Onshore | — |
| 33 | 2025 MEO Rip Curl Pro PortugalRound of 16 · heat 7 · Supertubos | 2nd | 4.83 | 3.00 + 1.83 | −7.21exp 12.04 | −1.0100.218 | 4-6' · Cross | — |
| 34 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProOpening Round · heat 9 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 8.87 | 4.87 + 4.00 | −1.85exp 10.72 | −1.0480.208 | 4-6' · Calm | Adv to R/32 - HT 2 |
| 35 | 2025 Surf City El Salvador ProRound of 32 · heat 2 · Punta Roca | 2nd | 12.27 | 6.27 + 6.00 | +0.53exp 11.74 | −0.9770.198 | 4-6' · Calm | — |
| 36 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachOpening Round · heat 5 · Bells Beach | 3rd | 8.67 | 4.67 + 4.00 | −2.05exp 10.72 | −1.0260.189 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to ER - HT 3 |
| 37 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachElimination Round · heat 3 | 2nd | 10.60 | 5.60 + 5.00 | −0.87exp 11.47 | −1.0190.181 | 4-6' · Onshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 4 |
| 38 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 32 · heat 4 | 1st | 15.70 | 8.00 + 7.70 | +3.96exp 11.74 | −0.7940.173 | 1-4' · Calm | — |
| 39 | 2025 Rip Curl Pro Bells BeachRound of 16 · heat 2 | 2nd | 13.03 | 6.53 + 6.50 | +0.99exp 12.04 | −0.7130.165 | 6-8' · Offshore | — |
| 40 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProOpening Round · heat 7 · Burleigh | 2nd | 10.00 | 5.33 + 4.67 | −0.72exp 10.72 | −0.7140.157 | 1-4' · Offshore | Adv to R/32 - HT 6 |
| 41 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 32 · heat 6 · Burleigh | 1st | 12.50 | 6.50 + 6.00 | +0.76exp 11.74 | −0.6470.150 | 1-4' · Light | — |
| 42 | 2025 Bonsoy Gold Coast ProRound of 16 · heat 3 · Burleigh | 2nd | 13.77 | 8.00 + 5.77 | +1.73exp 12.04 | −0.5400.144 | 4-6' · Light | — |
| 43 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProOpening Round · heat 12 · Main Break | 3rd | 10.34 | 5.77 + 4.57 | −0.38exp 10.72 | −0.5330.137 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 2 |
| 44 | 2025 Western Australia Margaret River ProElimination Round · heat 2 · Main Break | 3rd | 7.76 | 4.43 + 3.33 | −3.71exp 11.47 | −0.6760.131 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
| 45 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProOpening Round · heat 5 · Lower Trestles | 3rd | 8.20 | 4.13 + 4.07 | −2.52exp 10.72 | −0.7600.125 | 4-6' · Light | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 46 | 2025 Lexus Trestles ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Lower Trestles | 2nd | 12.50 | 6.67 + 5.83 | +1.03exp 11.47 | −0.6790.119 | 4-6' · Calm | Eliminated |
| 47 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Itaúna | 3rd | 7.47 | 3.97 + 3.50 | −3.25exp 10.72 | −0.7950.114 | 1-4' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 48 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProElimination Round · heat 7 · Itaúna | 1st | 10.50 | 7.00 + 3.50 | −0.97exp 11.47 | −0.8030.109 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to R/16 - HT 5 |
| 49 | 2025 VIVO Rio ProRound of 16 · heat 5 · Itaúna | 2nd | 9.83 | 5.83 + 4.00 | −2.21exp 12.04 | −0.8670.104 | 4-6' · Offshore | — |
| 50 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayOpening Round · heat 1 · Supertubes | 3rd | 3.94 | 2.27 + 1.67 | −6.78exp 10.72 | −1.1340.099 | 4-6' · Offshore | Adv to ER - HT 7 |
| 51 | 2025 Corona Cero Open J-BayElimination Round · heat 7 · Supertubes | 2nd | 7.76 | 4.43 + 3.33 | −3.71exp 11.47 | −1.2500.095 | 4-6' · Onshore | Eliminated |
| 52 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProOpening Round · heat 1 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 12.54 | 7.27 + 5.27 | +1.82exp 10.72 | −1.1110.090 | 8-10' · Calm | Adv to ER - HT 5 |
| 53 | 2025 Lexus Tahiti ProElimination Round · heat 5 · Teahupo'o | 2nd | 13.00 | 6.50 + 6.50 | +1.53exp 11.47 | −0.9920.086 | 8-10' · Offshore | Eliminated |
How this is computed
Computed over
heat_entries joined to heats, rounds and events, one row per heat surfed. position and heat_total are published, never derived from the rides; a heat with no total renders as an em-dash, never as zero (1 here). The counting rides are the stored waves.counted flag in score order, not ride order, which is how WSL publishes the decomposition; they are not the best two, because an interference penalty zeroes a counting ride without promoting the next one. counting_rides belongs to the round, not the event. Venue is heats.venue_id — the break the heat was actually surfed at, which for 49 of these 54 heatsis stored, and which is not always the event's nominal venue. Round order carries a known gap and no tie countback is stored, so a shared position is shown as published.Condition splits
What he scored, by what the page said
By published wave height
| Height | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-4' | 7 | 11.07 | 15.70 | −0.20 |
| 4-6' | 26 | 9.63 | 13.77 | −1.70 |
| 6-8' | 11 | 11.93 | 15.90 | +0.08 |
| 8-10' | 6 | 11.02 | 15.33 | −0.25 |
| 10-14' | 2 | 10.87 | 11.34 | −1.02 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
By published wind
| Wind | Heats | Mean | Best | vs Datum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offshore | 18 | 11.00 | 15.90 | −0.36 |
| Calm | 14 | 10.90 | 15.70 | −0.47 |
| Onshore | 8 | 9.32 | 10.60 | −2.20 |
| Cross | 6 | 9.17 | 11.34 | −2.45 |
| Light | 6 | 11.15 | 13.77 | −0.48 |
“Heats” counts the rated heats in the split; where a heat carries no published total it is shown as rated of total and left out of the means.
What these are not Conditions are not in the model. Datum V1 is a ridge on the round alone: break, wave type and field size were tested on 27 August and dropped, because adding them made the leave-one-event-out error worse rather than better. The “vs Datum” column in each split is therefore this surfer's deviation from what that round usually yields, averaged over the heats that fall in the split. It is a description of where he scored, not a measurement of conditions he favours, and a difference between two rows here is not evidence that either caused anything. Computed over the 52 of his 54 heatswhose popup was retained and publishes both figures; the remainder are absent from these tables rather than pooled into an “unknown” row.
How this is computed
Computed over
heats.wave_height_published and heats.wind_conditions, both read off the retained heat popup and shown in the words the page used. Across the database these are held for 771 of 801 heats, a different population from venue, which is held for 713. For this surfer that is 52 of 54. Heats with no published conditions are left out of both tables; they are not an “unknown” category.