ANALYTICS

38 rated surfers · 1,680 heats surfed between them · Men's CT 2024 and 2025

Who surfed
above the line.

Every line is one surfer's heats, in order. Sand rises where he scored more than Datum expected for that round, sea dips where he scored less. They're stacked by Trim, the running measure of how far above or below that line each surfer was over their most recent heats in these seasons. Hover a line to lift it out.

First heatLatest heat
Trim
  1. 1John John FlorenceJ. Florence1.79
  2. 2Ethan EwingE. Ewing1.54
  3. 3Gabriel MedinaG. Medina1.48
  4. 4Griffin ColapintoG. Colapinto1.47
  5. 5Italo FerreiraI. Ferreira1.22
  6. 6Leonardo FioravantiL. Fioravanti1.01
  7. 7Jack RobinsonJ. Robinson0.97
  8. 8Yago DoraY. Dora0.74
  9. 9Filipe ToledoF. Toledo0.54
  10. 10Liam O'BrienL. O'Brien0.42
  11. 11Kanoa IgarashiK. Igarashi0.40
  12. 12Cole HoushmandC. Houshmand0.39
  13. 13George PittarG. Pittar0.29
  14. 14Alan ClelandA. Cleland0.28
  15. 15Joao ChiancaJ. Chianca0.17
  16. 16Jordy SmithJ. Smith0.17
  17. 17Connor O'LearyC. O'Leary0.16
  18. 18Jacob WillcoxJ. Willcox0.07
  19. 19Samuel PupoS. Pupo0.06
  20. 20Ryan CallinanR. Callinan−0.01
  21. 21Crosby ColapintoC. Colapinto−0.05
  22. 22Ian GouveiaI. Gouveia−0.08
  23. 23Jake MarshallJ. Marshall−0.10
  24. 24Matthew McGillivrayM. McGillivray−0.15
  25. 25Ian GentilI. Gentil−0.18
  26. 26Kelly SlaterK. Slater−0.22
  27. 27Barron MamiyaB. Mamiya−0.45
  28. 28Marco MignotM. Mignot−0.46
  29. 29Miguel PupoM. Pupo−0.59
  30. 30Joel VaughanJ. Vaughan−0.69
  31. 31Alejo MunizA. Muniz−0.75
  32. 32Rio WaidaR. Waida−0.76
  33. 33Jackson BunchJ. Bunch−0.80
  34. 34Imaikalani deVaultI. deVault−0.81
  35. 35Edgard GroggiaE. Groggia−0.97
  36. 36Seth MonizS. Moniz−0.99
  37. 37Ramzi BoukhiamR. Boukhiam−1.11
  38. 38Deivid SilvaD. Silva−1.77

Surfers with 16or more rated heats. Each line runs from that surfer's first heat to his last in order of heats, not dates, so the same point across can be a different event for two surfers. Each heat is its gap to Datum, lightly smoothed over neighbouring heats so a line reads as a line; the Trim figure is unsmoothed.

How to read the numbers

Datum is the score a typical CT surfer posts in that round. Trim is how far above or below Datum a surfer has been scoring lately. Plus means beating the bar, minus means falling short.

Every heat score on this site is measured against Datum: the heat total a typical Championship Tour surfer puts up at that stage of an event. Scores rise as an event goes on (about 10.7 in an Opening Round heat, about 14.5 in a Final), so a 13 in a Final and a 13 in the Opening Round mean different things.

Trim is a surfer's running score against Datum. Every heat moves it up or down, and recent heats count most: a heat from 15 heats ago counts half as much as the latest one. A Trim of +0.5 means a surfer has recently been beating the typical score for their round by about half a point a heat. Everyone starts at zero, so surfers with only a few heats stay close to zero until their record builds up.

Men's Championship Tour · 2024 and 2025

Trim, surfer by surfer

How far each surfer beats what Datum expects of the round they are surfing, weighted so recent heats count more, accumulated heat by heat. The unit is points per heat on the 0–20 scale. Read the prior-weight column before reading the ranking: every surfer starts at zero and the start never fully washes out.

Leader1.79John John Florence
Surfers rated7338 at 16+ heats
Heat appearances rated1,8451,772 in the walk-forward test
Half-life15heats

Leaderboard

Latest Trim per surfer

Minimum heats73 of 73 surfers shown — every surfer, including wildcards whose rating is mostly the starting prior

The ± under each Trim is a 95% range for where his underlying level probably sits, allowing for heat-to-heat noise and for how much of the rating is still the starting value, so it is wider on short records. Ranges this wide mean the table reads best in bands, not places: a gap of a few hundredths says nothing. It is a rough guide, not a test of any one pair. “Last heat” is when each surfer last surfed a rated heat in these seasons.

Trim leaderboard: latest Trim per surfer, heats surfed, and the share of the rating that is the starting prior
1John John FlorenceHawaiiLast heat: Lexus Pipe Pro 20251.79± 0.89430.137
2Ethan EwingAustraliaLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20251.54± 0.87720.036
3Gabriel MedinaBrazilLast heat: Corona Fiji Pro 20241.48± 0.93300.250
4Griffin ColapintoUnited StatesLast heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 20251.47± 0.87850.020
5Italo FerreiraBrazilLast heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 20251.22± 0.87720.036
6Leonardo FioravantiItalyLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20251.01± 0.87550.079
7Jack RobinsonAustraliaLast heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 20250.97± 0.87680.043
8Yago DoraBrazilLast heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 20250.74± 0.87720.036
9Julian WilsonAustraliaLast heat: Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 20250.72± 1.3170.724
10Filipe ToledoBrazilLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20250.54± 0.92330.218
11Liam O'BrienAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 20250.42± 0.88440.131
12Kauli VaastFranceLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20250.40± 1.4240.831
13Kanoa IgarashiJapanLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20250.40± 0.87640.052
14Cole HoushmandUnited StatesLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20250.39± 0.87590.065
15Bryan PerezEl SalvadorLast heat: Surf City El Salvador Pro 20250.37± 1.3460.758
16George PittarAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 20250.29± 0.98240.330
17Alan ClelandMexicoLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20250.28± 0.95270.287
18Reef HeazlewoodAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 20240.20± 1.4630.871
19Joao ChiancaBrazilLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20250.17± 0.91350.198
20Jordy SmithSouth AfricaLast heat: Lexus WSL Finals Fiji 20250.17± 0.87690.041
21Connor O'LearyJapanLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 20250.16± 0.87590.065
22Luke ThompsonSouth AfricaLast heat: Corona Cero Open J-Bay 20250.12± 1.5120.912
23Morgan CibilicAustraliaLast heat: Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 20250.09± 1.14130.548
24Jacob WillcoxAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 20250.07± 1.06170.456
25Mateus HerdyBrazilLast heat: Surf Abu Dhabi Pro 20250.07± 1.5120.912
26Samuel PupoBrazilLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 20250.06± 0.91340.208
27Bronson MeydiIndonesiaLast heat: Surf Abu Dhabi Pro 20250.01± 1.5610.955
28Ryan CallinanAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.01± 0.90370.181
29Joan DuruFranceLast heat: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2024−0.02± 1.4240.831
30Tully WylieAustraliaLast heat: Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2024−0.03± 1.4630.871
31Crosby ColapintoUnited StatesLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.05± 0.87560.075
32Caio IbelliBrazilLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024−0.06± 1.14130.548
33Ian GouveiaBrazilLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.08± 1.08160.477
34Mihimana BrayeFrench PolynesiaLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.09± 1.2880.691
35Dimitri PoulosUnited StatesLast heat: Lexus Trestles Pro 2025−0.10± 1.5120.912
36Jake MarshallUnited StatesLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.10± 0.87580.069
37Gabriel KlaussnerBrazilLast heat: VIVO Rio Pro 2025−0.12± 1.5120.912
38Shion CrawfordHawaiiLast heat: Lexus Pipe Pro 2024−0.13± 1.5120.912
39Matthew McGillivraySouth AfricaLast heat: Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025−0.15± 0.88470.114
40Jordan LawlerAustraliaLast heat: Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 2025−0.16± 1.5120.912
41Ian GentilHawaiiLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.18± 0.93300.250
42Joaquim ChavesPortugalLast heat: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2024−0.18± 1.5120.912
43Tevita GukilauFijiLast heat: Corona Fiji Pro 2024−0.19± 1.5120.912
44Otis NorthAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024−0.20± 1.5120.912
45Levi SlawsonUnited StatesLast heat: Surf City El Salvador Pro 2025−0.20± 1.4630.871
46Jorgann CouzinetFranceLast heat: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025−0.20± 1.5120.912
47Gatien DelahayeFranceLast heat: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025−0.21± 1.5120.912
48Teiva TairoaFrench PolynesiaLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.22± 1.5120.912
49Winter VincentAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.22± 1.4630.871
50Kelly SlaterUnited StatesLast heat: Lexus Trestles Pro 2025−0.22± 1.02200.397
51Kai LennyHawaiiLast heat: Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024−0.24± 1.5120.912
52Peterson CrisantoBrazilLast heat: VIVO Rio Pro 2025−0.24± 1.5120.912
53Brodi SaleHawaiiLast heat: Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024−0.25± 1.5120.912
54Frederico MoraisPortugalLast heat: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2025−0.29± 1.10150.500
55Xavier HuxtableAustraliaLast heat: Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025−0.30± 1.4630.871
56Keanu AsingHawaiiLast heat: Hurley Pro Sunset Beach 2024−0.32± 1.5120.912
57Matias CanhotoPortugalLast heat: MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal 2024−0.37± 1.5120.912
58Mikey McDonaghAustraliaLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.38± 1.4240.831
59Callum RobsonAustraliaLast heat: Bonsoy Gold Coast Pro 2025−0.41± 1.12140.524
60Barron MamiyaHawaiiLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.45± 0.87610.060
61Marco MignotFranceLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.46± 0.92330.218
62Miguel PupoBrazilLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.59± 0.88470.114
63Eli HannemanHawaiiLast heat: Lexus Pipe Pro 2025−0.64± 1.16120.574
64Joel VaughanAustraliaLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.69± 0.94280.274
65Kade MatsonUnited StatesLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2024−0.74± 1.10150.500
66Alejo MunizBrazilLast heat: Corona Cero Open J-Bay 2025−0.75± 0.96260.301
67Rio WaidaIndonesiaLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.76± 0.87610.060
68Jackson BunchHawaiiLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.80± 1.02200.397
69Imaikalani deVaultHawaiiLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.81± 0.89430.137
70Edgard GroggiaBrazilLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−0.97± 1.08160.477
71Seth MonizHawaiiLast heat: Lexus Tahiti Pro 2025−0.99± 0.87530.086
72Ramzi BoukhiamMoroccoLast heat: Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach 2025−1.11± 0.90360.189
73Deivid SilvaBrazilLast heat: Western Australia Margaret River Pro 2025−1.77± 0.93300.250
How this is computed
Computed over the last row per surfer in v_trim_current, model run 3 (ewma_residual_hl15, computed 2026-10-17) over 1,845 heat entries and 73 surfers. Prior weight is the share of a surfer's rating that is still the starting prior of zero — a surfer with four heats is 83% prior and their Trim says almost nothing about them. The 16-heat default is a filter, not a finding, and the prior does not vary by entry status: a first-event wildcard and a returning champion start identically. The recency weighting itself earns nothing measurable on two seasons: an undecayed shrunk mean of the same residuals is indistinguishable, paired t = 0.560 (RMSE 2.9098 against 2.9123). Nearly all of Trim's skill is the prior.

Movers

Trim movement at Lexus WSL Finals Fiji

  1. Yago DoraBrazil

    0.663 → 0.739 over 1 heat · prior weight 0.036

    +0.076
  2. Italo FerreiraBrazil

    1.185 → 1.219 over 2 heats · prior weight 0.036

    +0.034
  3. Griffin ColapintoUnited States

    1.457 → 1.470 over 3 heats · prior weight 0.020

    +0.014
  4. Jordy SmithSouth Africa

    0.158 → 0.166 over 1 heat · prior weight 0.041

    +0.008
  5. Jack RobinsonAustralia

    1.315 → 0.971 over 1 heat · prior weight 0.043

    −0.344
How this is computed
Computed over the Trim each surfer arrived at Lexus WSL Finals Fiji with and the Trim they left with: trim_before of their first heat there, trim_after of their last, for the 5 surfers with a rated heat at the event. The window is this one event; a window over a fixed number of heats is an open design decision.

Latest event

Lexus WSL Finals Fiji

WSL Finals · 2025Post-cut

Cloudbreak · 27 Aug 2025 – 4 Sept 2025

Rounds4
Heats4
WinnerYago Dora
  1. Match 1
    1. 1Italo FerreiraBrazil14.33
    2. 2Jack RobinsonAustralia5.83
  2. Match 2
    1. 1Griffin ColapintoUnited States16.33
    2. 2Italo FerreiraBrazil13.67
  3. Match 3
    1. 1Griffin ColapintoUnited States15.43
    2. 2Jordy SmithSouth Africa13.50
  4. Title Matchworld #1 wins the title by winning Heat 1, otherwise best of three · Y. Dora won 1–0
    1. 1Yago DoraBrazil15.66
    2. 2Griffin ColapintoUnited States12.33
How this is computed
Computed over every heat of this event as WSL published it, in round order. Placings are WSL's own, never a re-sort by total, and a heat total shown as — was not published, which is not the same as a score of zero. The winner is WSL's published first place; no winner is worked out from the final heat. Venue is read per heat, not from the event. Full event →